South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Manly Sea Eagles: NRL semi-final preview, prediction

The NRL semi-finals will get underway on Friday evening as the South Sydney Rabbitohs look to right the wrongs of seven days ago when they take on the understrength, but confidence-driven Manly Sea Eagles at Homebush.

Semi-finals are always intriguing matches, bringing one team off a loss and the other off a victory into the second week of the finals

But this one is even more so with returning stars and the NRL’s biggest underdog story taking on a side who fell into the top four because those same underdogs couldn’t finish the season off.

The Rabbitohs, who took third spot on the table, fell well short in the latest chapter of the book of fueds last weekend, struggling as they were blown out by the Roosters in a game which summarised most of Week 1 finals action – that is – over before it began.

The Sea Eagles on the other hand, went into a home semi-final as an outsider, something of a rarity.

However, they were able to extend one of the longest-running runs of success in Australian sport as they started the match like a house on fire and then buried the Cronulla Sharks in stunning fashion.

Despite playing without Tom Trbojevic and Martin Taupau as well as a host of other players, they managed to put a dodgy ending to the regular season behind them and fly away with the victory.

However, the challenge isn’t going to get any easier as the understrength surprise packet of the season head away from home for the second week of finals action.

They will be confident though, and that has to count for something, as does the number of times they have won when they weren’t supposed to throughout the season.

Confidence isn’t a word you’d be putting in the same sentence as the Rabbitohs either, given the club haven’t played at their absolute potential since Round 1, and the results of last week.

They did have three straight wins to end the regular season, but two were unconvincing against the Brisbane Broncos and New Zealand Warriors, and the other over the Roosters in a game which had nothing riding on it for the men who must surely now be noted as premiership favourites with just five games to go in the season.

They have done enough to win time and time again, but that will count for little if they can’t find a way to cut out the silly errors, penalties, and fix their clunky attack for this knockout semi-final.

What should be expected coming into this semi-final though is a close game. Both games between the sides this year have been decided by a field goal, with the Sea Eagles winning back in Round 4 at home, and the Rabbitohs taking the chocolates in the return match at Homebush in a controversially officiated Round 17 encounter.

Historically, the Sea Eagles hold a slender advantage between the two clubs, but that, as well as their record at Homebush, is nothing to write home about, although they have lost their last three against the Bunnies when playing at the Olympic Park venue.

Their record in finals against the Rabbitohs is not so great though, winning just four out of twelve, although they have won the only two games this century, so make of that what you will.

Team news and squads

South Sydney Rabbitohs
There is no question the Rabbitohs needed a fresh injection of players after last week’s loss, and they get that here with the return of Dane Gagai and Sam Burgess.

Burgess slots straight into the second row, with Jayden Su’A dropped from the starting 17, while Dane Gagai will move into the centres.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

That means Campbell Graham can go back to his preferred position on the wing outside the Maroons representative, while James Roberts and Alex Johnson line up on the other side of the ground and Adam Doueihi plays fullback.

Corey Allan is the man omitted in the backs, while Thomas Burgess returns to the starting side, with brother George dropping back to the bench.

1. Adam Doueihi, 2. Alex Johnston, 3. James Roberts, 4. Dane Gagai, 5. Campbell Graham, 6. Cody Walker, 7. Adam Reynolds, 8. Tom Burgess, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Liam Knight, 11. John Sutton, 12. Sam Burgess, 13. Cameron Murray

Bench: 14. George Burgess, 15. Mark Nicholls, 16. Tevita Tavola, 17. Ethan Lowe, 18. Jaydn Su’A, 19. Dean Britt, 20. Corey Allan, 21. Kyle Turner

Manly Sea Eagles
The big return for the Sea Eagles is that of Martin Taupau, who is into the front row. It means rookie Sean Keppie goes back to the bench, and Toafofoa Sipley drops out of the 17 after he was called in for last week’s win over the Sharks.

1. Brendan Elliot, 2. Jorge Taufua, 3. Brad Parker, 4. Moses Suli, 5. Reuben Garrick, 6. Dylan Walker, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans, 8. Addin Fonua-Blake, 9. Apisai Koroisau, 10. Martin Taupau, 11. Corey Waddell, 12. Jack Gosiewski, 13. Jake Trbojevic

Bench: 14. Manase Fainu, 15. Haumole Olakau’atu, 16. Sean Keppie, 17. Lloyd Perrett, 18. Lachlan Croker, 19. Tevita Funa, 20. Toafofoa Sipley, 21. Tony Williams

Keys to the game

Addin Fonua-Blake and Martin Taupau hold Manly’s fate
It’s never been more important for Manly to play a game of footy from in front.

While one of the few criticisms of the club this season has been their lack of punch at times to follow up Martin Taupau and Addin Fonua-Blake (and even that is drawing an extremely long bow as the bench have improved out of sight from 12 months ago), this week, there is a mountain of pressure on the starting duo.

Simply put, if Manly try to play catch-up rugby league against this forward pack without Tom Trbojevic, it won’t work.

Instead, Addin Fonua-Blake needs to do what he did last week and set the tempo early on. That task, of course, should be made easier by the return of Taupau.

Both are objectively in the top five props the competition has seen this year, and they need to show it here.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Damien Cook must be able to do his thing
One of the keys to South Sydney playing a style of footy which not only suits them, but is conducive to winning games in the NRL is for Damien Cook to have a heavy involvement.

Now, it should be mentioned that Cook being heavily involved out of dummy half, both in a kicking and running sense, stems from the forwards dominating the middle third of the ground.

This creates a fast, direct style with a lot of quick play the balls that Cook and the Rabbitohs ultimately are able to thrive off.

The vision of the hooker is such that, if the forwards are able to do the lead-up work, players like Cody Walker, Adam Doueihi and the outside backs will be able to dominate their jobs and put points on the scoreboard.

Sam Burgess being back helps this process immediately, but again, the South Sydney pack need to find a way to remain competitive during the initial burst and then not play a flashy style, but rather, consistently fast and direct with moments of extravagance.

Silly errors could prove the difference
While the forwards bringing in their level of expansive play will be one factor for the Rabbitohs as they attempt to gain the upper-hand, the onus will be on all 34 playeds to not overplay their hand trying to make something happen that isn’t on.

Both teams have been prone to plenty of errors at critical times this year, Souths more than Manly, but given the previous meetings between these sides this year has resulted in a pair of one-point wins each way, as well as the unknowns of this clash, high completion rates and low error counts could prove vital.

Patience in attack may well be the key, with both forward packs susceptible to fatiguing, and leaking points when bench players come onto the field. What that essenfially means is that repeat sets will be worth their weight in gold, and points could often flow afterwards against these sides.

That is only going to come on the back of patient attack, and using two of the best short-range kicking games in the competition to each side’s respective advantage.

While there is still a place for off the cuff plays, offloads (looking at you, Sam and Marty) and good balls at the line, they must be used in moderation, and only when the situation calls for it.

All the rain in Sydney this week might only serve to further the game of patience between the sides as a preliminary final spot goes on the line.

(Photo by Will Russell/Getty Images)

Prediction

While most will tip the Rabbitohs for this game, it’s not as clear cut as some would have you believe.

The grit and determination of the Sea Eagles counts for a lot in finals type pressure, and while it’s hard to see them winning the competition, their style of footy, if they can at least be even up the middle third of the ground, is a good one to take on South Sydney.

Cherry-Evans needs a huge performance, as does the returning Taupau, but with the Rabbitohs still struggling to get their attack right and hang onto the ball, they need major improvement to beat any of the remaining teams in the competition.

I can’t see them going from zero to hero in the space of seven days though, so Manly should book a preliminary final spot on the road against the Raiders and continue their run of confidence.

Sea Eagles by 2.

What you need to know about the game

Date: Friday, September 20
Kick-off: 7:50pm (AEST)
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Homebush
TV: Live, Fox League 502, Channel 9
Online: Live, Foxtel App, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, 9Now, NRL Digital Pass
Betting: Rabbitohs $1.45, Sea Eagles $2.70
Overall record: Played 143, Sea Eagles 77, Rabbitohs 66
Last meeting: 2019, Round 17 – Rabbitohs 21 defeat Sea Eagles 20 at ANZ Stadium, Homebush
Last five: Rabbitohs 3, Sea Eagles 2
Record in finals: Played 12, Rabbitohs 8, Sea Eagles 4
Record at venue: Played 40, Sea Eagles 34, Sharks 5, drawn 1
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Adam Gee

Don’t forget to join us here on The Roar from 7:30pm (AEST) on Friday evening for our live coverage and highlights of the game.