This Saturday, 28 September, at 7:50pm at the SCG will be the 39th time these two sides have clashed since the Storm entered the competition in 1998. It stands at 21-17 in the Purple Horde’s favour.
The two sides will still have met two fewer times than the Roosters played against Glebe, the last of which was 90 years ago.
The Storm have won six of the last ten between the two sides. However, the Roosters have won three of the last five played in Sydney, including the 2018 grand final of course.
You want some freaky statistics?
Of course you do!
Since the NRL era began in 1998 there have been 21 finals series, including this year. The most any side could have possibly played to this point is 82 games. The Roosters have featured in 15 of the 21 finals series. In that time they have played 41 finals matches. The Storm have featured in 18 of those finals series for a total of 48 finals matches.
The Roosters have played in seven grand finals, the Storm nine. Yet the 2018 grand final was the first time the two sides had ever met in the decider.
Weirder still, the 2018 NRL grand final was only the third finals match the two sides had ever played against each other:
- 1998 – Roosters 26, Storm 12
- 2015 – Storm 20, Roosters 18
- 2018 – Roosters 21, Storm 6
Strangest of all, though is that the Storm have played in 11 preliminary finals since 1998 while the Roosters have played in ten in the same period, yet this is the first time they’ve met each other in the penultimate week of the season.
The Roosters have won seven of those ten prelims, while the Storm have won nine of their 11. This is the Storm’s fourth straight preliminary final appearance.
(Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
To further highlight the Storm’s dominance of the NRL era, this will be only the fourth time the Storm have played a preliminary final away from Melbourne. The only prelims they have lost have been to the Warriors in 2011 and to the Cowboys in 2015.
Boding well for the Roosters is that both of those sides beat the Storm through attacking flair. The Chooks have that attribute in spades.
A statistic that doesn’t bode so well for the Roosters is that in only 15 per cent of the time in the NRL era has the previous year’s premier gone on to play in the following grand final: the Roosters in 2003 and the Storm in 2008 and 2018. The previous year’s premier has already been knocked out by now 60 per cent of the time, though, so the Roosters may be the ones to break the mock.
Of course we haven’t had a back-to-back premier since Brisbane in 1993.
There are two prime ways to statistically predict the score of this game. If we compare both sides’ attack and defence for the entire season, we get the Roosters winning 21-19. If we compare both sides’ results against the other top-four finishers, we have the Storm victorious 18-17.8.
Let’s look at both sides’ results against the other top-four finishers.
| Roosters | Storm |
|---|---|
| Round 1: lost 16-26 at home to the Rabbitohs | Round 2: won 22-10 away to the Raiders |
| Round 6: won 21-20 away to the Storm | Round 6: lost 20-21 at home to the Roosters |
| Round 9: won 30-24 away to the Raiders | Round 15: won 14-12 away to the Roosters |
| Round 15: lost 12-14 away to the Storm | Round 21: won 26-16 away to the Rabbitohs |
| Round 21: won 22-18 away to the Raiders | Round 22: lost 18-22 at home to the Raiders |
| Round 25: lost 10-16 away to the Rabbitohs | Qualifying final: lost 10-12 to the Raiders |
| Qualifying final: won 30-6 at home to the Rabbitohs |
The Roosters have a 4-3 record, while the Storm have split theirs at 3-3. Notably the Storm have lost their last two encounters against this cohort. These two sides have split the honours against each other this season.
As we have seen, the Roosters have history on their side to win through to the grand final, as in nearly three-quarters of the time top-four sides that win in Week 1 of the finals and have the week off go on to win their preliminary finals matches.
There will be a few personnel changes from their Round 15 clash at Adelaide Oval, where the Storm defeated the Roosters 14-12.
| Rossters | Storm | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Out | In | Out | In |
| Poasa Faamausili | Lindsay Collins | Christian Welch | Max King |
| Lachlan Lam | Luke Keary | Brodie Croft | Jahrome Hughes |
| Matt Ikuvalu | Sam Verills | Joe Stimson | Curtis Scott |
Sam Verills has quickly demonstrated what a great prospect he is. While Jake Friend is in the extended squad, I’d be very surprised if Trent Robinson changed his winning formula. Luke Keary is a total gun and will be champing at the bit to prove himself against Melbourne again. Christian Welch is a big loss for the Storm. He plays Bellamy ball very well and can be counted on. Max King will do his best. Curtis Scott has a point to prove, and if history is a guide, he has a ready supply of angry pills too.
This game pits the best backline in 2019 against the best forward pack. No Jared Warea-Hargreaves is a big loss for the Roosters. It actually evens this game right out.
(Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Team statistics
In regards to the team statistics that separate these two sides, there really aren’t too many.
The Roosters, as you’d expect, are better across the board in attack. However, there isn’t much in it, and the Storm are second to the Chooks in many categories. The Storm have a completion rate of 78 per cent, which is better than the Roosters 73 per cent.
In defensive terms, the Storm are distinctly the best side in 2019. They concede 150 fewer metres on average a match than the Roosters, allow one fewer line break and miss five fewer tackles.
The danger men
The Roosters have plenty of tries in them. Latrell Mitchell has scored 19, James Tedesco 16 and Daniel Tupou 15. For the Storm Josh Addo-Carr has 16, Suliasi Vunivalu 11 and Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen both have nine tries.
Addo-Carr’s 25 line breaks are the third most in the NRL this year.
Cam Munster has 20 try assists and 20 line-break assists. He gets great backup from Cam Smith with his 16 try assists and 17 line-break assists.
Both pale next to Luke Keary and his 27 try assists and 28 line-break assists. He is well backed up by Cooper Cronk and James Tedesco, who both boast 15 try assists. Tedesco has 18 line break assists and 28 line breaks, the most in the NRL.
(Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
The liabilities
Joseph Manu is a superb attacking centre. However, he misses nearly 17 per cent of his tackles. That could be an issue.
Latrell Mitchell and Gus Crichton are almost certain to give away a penalty in this match. Also likely to concede are Justin Olam, Cam Smith, Felise Kaufusi and Jesse Bromwich.
Cam Munster misses 2.2 tackles a game but Suliasi Vunivalu misses 1.7 while making only 4.2. He is likely to be targeted in defence.
As we’ve seen above, these two sides are dripping with finals experience. Neither side will be overawed on this stage.
| Roosters | Finals games | Storm | Finals games |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Tedesco | 4 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | 2 |
| Daniel Tupou | 15 | Suliasi Vunivalu | 11 |
| Latrell Mitchell | 5 | Curtis Scott | 7 |
| Jospeh Manu | 4 | Justin Olam | 2 |
| Brett Morris | 14 | Josh Addo-Carr | 8 |
| Luke Keary | 10 | Cameron Munster | 13 |
| Cooper Cronk | 36 | Jahrome Hughes | 2 |
| Victor Radley | 4 | Dale Finucane | 21 |
| Boyd Cordner | 13 | Felise Kaufusi | 8 |
| Mitchell Aubusson | 20 | Kenny Bromwich | 15 |
| Isaac Liu | 13 | Nelson Asofa-Solomona | 10 |
| Sam Verills | 1 | Cameron Smith | 38 |
| Sio SIua Taukeiaho | 9 | Jesse Bromwich | 21 |
| Angus Crichton | 4 | Brandon Smith | 5 |
| Zane Tetevano | 5 | Tui Kamikamica | 2 |
| Nat Butcher | 1 | Max King | 2 |
| Lindsay Collins | 2 | Will Chambers | 20 |
| Total | 160 | Total | 187 |
Each team has seven players who have played on the big stage ten times or more. The Storm have five players for whom this is their first finals campaign. The Roosters only have two. That could be a telling difference.
Who is going to win and why
The Storm are dripping with experience and determination. They will be single-minded in executing their game plan and squeezing the life out of the Roosters. And they may succeed too.
But I don’t think they will. Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen will be game-breaking players in finals in the future. But right now they are still rookies with promise.
That can’t be said about Luke Keary, Joseph Manu, Latrell Mitchell and James Tedesco. They are all brutally and spectacularly brilliant. Cam Smith and Cam Munster will surely display some brilliance, but the Roosters backline is a thing of genuine beauty and terror.
The loss of Jared Warea-Hargreaves lessens the Roosters ability to muscle up to the wonderful Storm pack. However, the Storm punch off the bench is severely lessened without Christian Welch.
Assuming the Roosters pack hold their ground and provide their backs enough space, I think the Chooks will prevail in a tight one.
Roosters by four.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Or 17 players from the Raiders! ;-)
Pickett
Guest
Yep, bounce of the ball, refs's decision, a fraction of a second off in timing...and that'll be it.
Pickett
Guest
100% Puppy. Keary is the key who will unlock the Roosters. ATM he is the most valuable player in the NRL. (And you lot let him go hehe. Sorry mate, just rubbing it in)
paulie
Guest
Another gullible tosser
Dutski
Roar Guru
Can I clarify - salary cap cheats vs wrestle mania... that’s got the Storm playing themselves right? :silly:
KenW
Guest
Can't see past the Roosters with the week off - just so much firepower. The Storm will give themselves every chance though, a single lucky bounce could be enough to turn it their way. What a great week of prelims though.
Peter
Guest
Surprised the form of Smith hasn't been discussed much. Something about him just hasn't seemed right to me in the last few weeks. If he's not on than everything falls onto Munster. Good thing for Melbourne is that Munster is a star and is more than capable of handling the pressure. But if those two aren't at their best, then Melbourne are stuffed!!!
Rob
Guest
That may be true but if there is one player that knows how to beat the Storm, it's Cooper Cronk.
Brendon
Roar Rookie
I've never seen match fitness as an issue for the Storm. The conditioning across the park is top notch, always is. The only player I can recall ever looking gased is Smith, which will be an issue, but something the team tends to cover pretty well. Can the Roosters go for the 80 at high intensity will be a good question.
Chris
Roar Pro
The Roosters are definitely much more rested and fresh going into this week's game, but Melbourne were on cruise mode in the 2nd half against Parra. Melbourne aren't exactly at a massive disadvantage in regards to match fitness. If the AAMI Park game had gone down to the wire and been an intense battle, the Roosters would be primed. But I believe the Storm have a great amount of momentum and match fitness. Or the Roosters' week off would mean they blaze away in the last 10 minutes on fresh legs. I hope it's the former.
kk
Roar Pro
Come full time the absence of the hyphen (JW-H) may have unwittingly sent Easts into finals oblivion.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
If Keary is contained then Mitchell doesn't get the ball and is starved of opportunities. That only leaves Manu and Cronk and there is no better team than the Storm to know how to read and contain Cooper Cronk.
Noosa Duck
Roar Rookie
It would be nice to see the Roosters have to play a full 80 minutes to win a game for a change. Sometimes having the week off can send you out on the field lazy & you get jumped.Then again the Storm had a hard game against the Raiders but a training run against the Eels so that probably evens things a bit. When you look at all those stats the one that you cannot judge is the one about which team comes more mentally primed for the game for they both have masses of talent all over the park. One missed tackle can decide this game
TJ
Guest
The first 20 minutes will be key. If the Roosters contain NAS and Bromwich in their first stints I think they win. Won't be surprised to see Radley start at hooker with Friend coming on once the big boys are off.
Rob
Guest
That's the scary thing about the Roosters. If you successfully wipe out Keary and Teddy, you then have to worry about Cronk, Mitchell and Manu. Their backline must give opposition coaches nightmares.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Yep ! For me it all revolves around the Storm's ability (or not) , to handle the Chooks left side attack. Hughes, Kaufusi, Scott & Vunivalu v Keary , Cordner, Mitchell & Tupou, with Teddy & Paps popping through there at times. I reckon the Storm have the middle covered with the Smiths & Finucane, and Munster usually looks after their left side well. Hughes, Kaufusi & Scott will be the Storm's keys in closing down Keary, Cordner & Mitchell and hence their dangerous left side attack. If they can do their job defensively there, I fancy the Storm will win via the experienced big match hands of Smith & Munster.
E-Meter
Roar Rookie
That's the spirit.
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
"My family are pretty evenly split Roosters vs Storm supporters...." ....wow, your family were really screwed over in the genetics stakes Brendon! (....but kudos for admitting your families failings mate!) ;)
R J
Guest
Ok, fair call. Refs to engineer a Gladiator v Politis GF with Tedesco scoring the winning try in double extra time set up by swan songer Cronk!!! #talkupthegame #imnotbitter
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
"Mitchell is the key for the Roosters." Latrell is a key player, yes. But there are TWO players that the Storm have to shut down if they are going to win this one... James Tedesco and Luke Keary. Both players destroyed the Rabbitohs in the Qualifying Final and with Keary's return to the chooks they have gone up two gears. Remember, if the Storm stop Luke Keary they take Latrell Mitchell out of the game as well.