Through good luck and good management, Geelong have played finals in 12 of the past 13 seasons. It’s a ridiculous run of excellence that includes three flags from four grand final appearances.
The one season they missed finals was an 11-9-1 campaign that they immediately followed up by grabbing Patrick Dangerfield, who immediately put in one of the great individual seasons of the modern era and has been up to his ears in the “best player in footy” debate since.
Dangerfield’s arrival serves as a significant marker for these Cats, with 2015 representing the divider between two eras.
And the Dangerfield era is now precariously placed, after Geelong’s second-best player was shipped to West Coast for about as good a deal as you can hope for when losing one of the 20 best footballers in the country smack bang in the middle of his prime.
The question now for the Cats is: now what?
Too often in sport, the narrative when a team doesn’t win becomes that they couldn’t win.
Geelong didn’t win the flag this year, but they were the only team to make the Tigers sweat in the second half of a final – without two of their six best players in Tom Hawkins and Mitch Duncan. They finished on top of the ladder and eliminated the reigning premiers in the second week of finals. By any definition, they were a contender.
A significant contributor, of course, was Tim Kelly, who with 31 touches and three goals was probably the best player on the ground in the last game he’ll play in the blue and white hoops.
(Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Hawkins and skipper Joel Selwood turn 32 next year. Gary Ablett will be 36 in May and almost certainly hang up the boots in 2020. Harry Taylor will go around again, despite the 33-year-old looking overcooked for most of the season.
Heck, Dangerfield is coming up on his 30th birthday.
The Cats are straddling a difficult line by trying to contend with a quality veteran core while also looking to the future.
Geelong hold a reasonably strong draft hand, which currently consists of picks 14, 17, 24, 36, 37 and 93, as well as West Coast’s 2020 first-rounder, which is likely to be in the mid-to-late teens.
Jack Steven will likely join the club for one of those picks in the 30s. Steven is a fine player, and if happy and healthy, the 29-year-old should have a few good seasons left.
He won’t fill the Kelly void, but he’ll play a similar role and he’ll help Geelong win games.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Those picks all look nice and shiny until it’s time to use them.
Pick 24 has been particularly kind to the Cats. They’ve picked in that slot three times and come away with David Wojcinski, Steve Johnson and Tim Kelly.
Their past four picks in the teens, however, have produced Jordan Clark, Darcy Lang, Jackson Thurlow and Billie Smedts.
If the Cats can find three 150-game players in this draft, they’ll have done extremely well.
We’ve seen the other great teams try differing approaches in recent years.
Sydney have sneakily reloaded with youth while – until this season – remaining a finals threat. The Swans couldn’t have scripted their down season any better, winning eight games and finishing with a percentage nudging 98 and a top-five draft pick, but it remains to be seen just how soon they will return to September.
Hawthorn have gone in the opposite direction, choosing to turn draft picks into proven players like Tom Mitchell and Chad Wingard, rather than gamble on teenagers. However, they have finished outside the eight in two of the past four seasons, are 0-4 in finals in the other two years since their last premiership, and have one of the oldest lists in the competition.
This is how the league is supposed to work. Free agency has made it easier for well-constructed, quality teams to top up and extend their run. But at some point the magic runs out and it looks like Geelong – like the Hawks and the Swans – might be at that point.
The Kelly trade has at least given the Cats plenty of options, none of which are any guarantee of success.
If they nail the draft and find some young players ready to contribute, it might just be the shot in the arm they need to squeeze another run out of this core.
If they miss, or even if the kids they pick (should they choose to use those picks) aren’t ready to contribute meaningfully at AFL level as is the case more often than not, then Geelong should brace for some pain sooner rather than later.
The Cats are entering territory they haven’t ventured into for some time. Their next few steps will determine their future.
Gus
Roar Rookie
Well said.
Cat
Roar Guru
Geelong played more kids than most sides.
asd
Guest
Draft kids
Slane
Guest
Who cares why any player wants to get traded to any team? It makes no difference whether it's for money or family or lifestyle, they are all valid reasons. Any person who says they wouldn't change employers for an extra hundred grand(or more) a year is a liar.
Raimond
Roar Guru
I wrote an article predicting it. They'll have wooden spoon by 2023, at the latest.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Next you will be quoting whalid Ali. Geelongs season was defined by its pressure including its forward line.
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
Geelong want Hill for Menagola. Not good enough of course. Geelong won't pay the St Kilda offer but will test to see if he really want's to go back to Victoria.
Brian
Guest
I heard Paul Roos bring up the 2 way thing during the finals noting how Guthrie is so critical because he does. But hey sure you know more then him.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
You must be in a time warp, watching Geelong in 2018. You do have a point with Scott but the running both ways. Really. Top 10 players point, well the Cats from 2007 to 2012 won with experienced big body players and not rookies.
Brian
Guest
Hawkins wasn't really missing, he was rightly suspended. Duncan was. I don't know who the 3rd is supposed to be. I accept the style was different in 2019 but what cost Geelong against Collingwood and against Richmond is hardly new. Too many players who can't execute under pressure both in-play and when kicking for goal. Too many mids who don't run 2 ways. Looking at the clubs top 10 players in 2019 per the best and fairest Miers was the only top 10 player under 26 apart from the departed Kelly and he was 10th in the count just ahead of 11th placed Harry Taylor.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
You totally ignored my points. How many games did the Cats win at the MCG last year. The record was better than at their real home. Their game is not around the skinnier ground. That was a few years ago. They were beaten by the premiers by 19 points in the real grand final with three of their vital players missing. So if you look at all your cliches, only the Scott one has merit.
Brian
Guest
5 of the last 7 seasons finished the season top 4 (2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2019) and 0 Grand Finals made from those 5 top 4 finishes. This from the only club that gets to play more often in front of favourable crowd support then any other team, but does not get that advantage in finals. But you can keep believing its a coincidence.
Stix
Guest
Geelong want to move into the top 10 in the draft. Adelaide Pick 4 and 28 for Pick 14, 17 and 24. Geelong would have 4, 28, 36, 37. Adelaide would have 14, 17, 23, 24, 49 + others picks coming for players leaving. Flexible picks to trade up (2 for 1) on draft day to target South Australians. South Australian Top 30 prospects: Dylan Stephens, Will Gould, Cameron Taheny, Will Day, Harry Schoenberg, Jackson Mead (Tied to Port Adelaide father-son/academy draftee) Adelaide are apparently interested in trading for Pick 8/Pick 9 though.
Stix
Guest
Geelong want to move into the top 10 in the draft. If pick 6 and 59 = 12 and 18 (STK/GWS) Pick 7 and 22 (FREO) = 14,17 and 24 (GEEL) Freo should take 12, 18 and a filler for Hill. Freo 12, 14, 17, 18, 24. Deven Robertson, Liam Henry, Luke Jackson, Elijah Taylor, Trent Rivers are all top 30 draft prospects from Western Australia. Take the WA players while West Coast is out of the picture for the next 2 drafts.
Boo
Guest
Duncan goes all right and Hawkins won us a flag so they are up there.Can't judge Clarke or the first year players as they haven't had the chance to prove themselves either way.Rohan and Cockatoo are a bit injury prone .Fogarty and Constable have make or break year ahead.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
I was baying for blood and then he brought in Ronan and Dahlhaus. Gee just thinking about the Richmond loss, I am still raw. I might need the extra months before we play again.
Old Ben
Roar Rookie
And who, among those that didn't play in the prelim, can you depend on when the chips are down?
Old Ben
Roar Rookie
There lies a large part of the problem, Yatt.....Chris Scott! One of those special species of salesman if I've ever seen one (and I've come across quite a few in my time). Maybe a bit harsh...but only a tiny bit.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
You are a bit harsh. The were the minor premiers. Lost two crucial players for the last one. The coach made some horrendous decisions in the finals. You gotta have faith.
Boo
Guest
Write Geelong off at your own peril before we even get to drafting a player here are some players who didn't play in the prelim Hawkins,Duncan, Clarke,Rohan ,Fogarty and Cockatoo throw in the natural development of first year players in Forte, Krueger, Jarvis, Brownless and Tarca ,I think finals are a certainty.Yes losing Kelly will hurt the club but hopefully we can cover his output.I didn't mention Constable or Simpson ( who won the vfl b+f) as they spent most of the year developing there game in the seconds.