A long, long time ago I said I don’t rate Michael Cheika as a national coach.
It was obvious from the start the type of coach he is, but that opinion was against the tide, and many people were happy with the subsequent 2015 World Cup result. That was an aberration, though, and Australian rugby has suffered dreadfully in the four years that have followed.
The truth is that since the reign of Rod Macqueen Australian rugby has been able to average only around a 50 per cent winning rate, world cups excluded. That was before Cheika. Outside of world cups and with Cheika we fall to around 45 per cent, yet unlike the others he wasn’t moved on until he resigned after the national side’s quarter-finals exit at the weekend.
Australian fans have wondered aloud since that tournament why our team has been unable to string together any sort of continuity. Why haven’t we been able to win back-to-back games? How can we flog the No. 1 side in the world and then get towelled up the next week? Was it the talent?
The sad reality is that Australian rugby has lost its way, and not just within the Wallabies. Michael Cheika was only a symptom.
(Warren Little – World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)
In the face of ever-declining results and particularly after only four Test wins in 2018, it was time for Rugby Australia to sit down and truly assess where we were at. RA had a choice: stick with Cheika or dump him. I opined some time ago that they would stick with him and bring in some outside help. If they chose to stick with him, however, they needed to get to the bottom of what was going on in order to arrest the slide.
The problem is, though, that the people Rugby Australia brought in came too late and neither they nor the administration have asked a very important question
I struggle to recall any coach in any sport, let alone the coach of a national team, who openly states he does not analyse the opposition, much less repeats that statement. This is either willful blindness or extraordinary arrogance. If the All Blacks analyse the opposition, don’t you think it is prudent to do that also?
If you focus only on your own game strengths, you run the risk that the opposition is stronger in the same area or able to defeat your strategy easily. If that is the case, you are wasting your time, as the result is almost foregone.
You might find your strategy is running into a brick wall and you are effectively nullified – then you lose. If that’s the result time and again, you would sit down and work out why and how you were neutralised by the opposition. In other words you analyse the opposition.
If your tactics rely upon certain outcomes within the match and those outcomes aren’t met, you again need to sit down and work out why.
Were you outcoached? Did the opposition work you out? How did they work you out? What did they do to nullify your tactics?
Clearly and by his own admission Michael Cheika didn’t analyse the opposition. Is this the reason Wallabies supporters have been scratching our heads at ‘dumb rugby’? Surely after the disasters of 2018 you would have sit down and work out why.
It’s basic. If you start with plan A and the opposition stops you cold, you work out how they stopped you rather than turning over players because you want them to try to execute plan A better, faster or stronger.
Why weren’t we – and this includes Rugby Australia – the country with a supposed long line of rugby ‘smarts’, not sitting down and analyzing what is happening? Are the comments from opposition coaches about how smart Australia play rugby just a mocking assessment?
Why wasn’t the coach considering if plan A would actually work against each and every team they face?
An even more astounding question is, though, whether anyone in Rugby Australia was asking this. Was Scott Johnson wondering? Was Rod Kafer? Was the only person asking the right questions Stephen Larkham?
It is incredible and sad because, if true, Rugby Australia have not only wasted years of opportunities but players have also had their careers affected.
I for one have little sympathy for the outbound Michael Cheika, but in truth I see no point in tearing him down. I think he should be left alone quietly now that he’s fallen on his sword.
I only hope the truly hard questions are asked of those in the corridors at Rugby Australia who, instead of reeling it all in when they had the chance, just swept it all under the carpet.
Wyn
Guest
This was all Craig Joubert's fault. If he had not made that mistake that save Wallabies from a QF exit in 2015, he may still have been one of the top refs in the world and these questions may have been asked in greater earnest 4 years ago :)
Vman2
Roar Rookie
On the other hand the board have excellent creditentials in feminism and being politically correct. They are excellent at going to war over religion with their highest try scorer. They score A+ in having review after review structured to avoid any scrutiny of the CEO or board. They score 100% at alienating an entire state and refusing Forrest's $50 million because they know such an investor would hold the board to account on performance. All while the national team drops out of teir one and a decade long downward spiral of losing fans and money. But it's all OK because now we have 400 women playing rugby which no one pays to watch. So it's a great win for feminism at the cost of everything else. What's the problem? I'm sure a new Wallabies couch will solve everything. NOT!
Shed
Roar Rookie
Cameron Clyne absolutely needs the blow torch turned on him!! I don't know the man, and I expect not may of the Roar readers/ members do, however of the top tier national sporting bodies in Australia, he lacks serious clout and presence in the eye of the sporting public, and it is simply embarrassing. Any post-Cheika review must be a true 'Performance & Leadership' review of RA where the positions of Chairman, CEO and Head Coach are reviewed. And there has to be alignment through the 4 Super Rugby Franchises where their main focus is to produce Wallabies who can play a Wallaby brand. And this Wallaby brand needs to encompass a clear framework for what it is to be a Wallaby as developed through the Likes of Scott Johnson, John Eales, Rod Kafer, George Gregan, Rod Macqueen, Bob Dwyer, Justin Harrison & George Smith. Great men of Australian rugby who embody everything of which our gold jersey stands for!
piru
Roar Rookie
What had the Donald won lately ? His and Cheika's ratings are about the same
AndyS
Guest
For mine, everyone should take a step back and remember that Australia is a rugby nation with a total of four professional teams. That is it, to do all the player development of a few new amateur players each year in the hope of finding Test representatives. The reality is that, if anything, Australia has historically overperformed. But reality is catching up and it is probably a long way from the bottom yet. Which is in no way an excuse for RA and Australian rugby. Quite the opposite; Australia is in that position because they have been happy to settle for that structure for player identification and development - indeed, many would even try to reduce it further. They have been content to settle for two states as the base for the game and happy to ignore the rest of the country...perhaps clinging to that all the harder since professionalism. So I would have said the Wallabies are pretty much all you'd expect them to be and will remain much the same unless something changes. But a few faces here and there will make no difference whatsoever.
GusTee
Roar Pro
CAMERON CLYNE dropped the whole kaboodle mate. More than Allan Border does in the cricket TV add .... our rugby is fractured nationally and is simply abysmal internationally.
stillmissit
Roar Guru
Keith, good article and when we look back over the last 4 years what a debacle it has been? Someone should have sat Cheika down and read 'the art of war' to him' assuming he would stay awake! Maybe he might have learnt something had he had lunch with Graham Henry, he could have picked up some useful tips. Still, he knew best and the problem with narcissists in power is that they can have screaming successes and then screaming failures, they expect the first and never agree with the second.
Ozrugbynut
Roar Rookie
Youre right, this new coach is probably the biggest appointment RA/ARU has ever made. What should the criteria be? Well for mine it has to be about winning back respect, from fans, media, opposition coaches and fans. I’d like someone with intl experience with some runs on the board and a network of people they could attract. I’d like someone who will appeal to the corporates and help drive the financial side of things as well. I’d like a detail oriented and tactical coach with a horse’s for courses approach who plans to win each match (not just build for the future). Id like someone who can hold their own in the mind games before each match. What else?
Censored Often
Roar Rookie
Perhaps all above should be gone also....
Max power
Guest
How many tackles did Cameron miss ? How many drop balls ?
Max power
Guest
What had the Donald won lately ?
Max power
Guest
Here’s a fact. People blame coaching and administration but we are just a below par rugby country and nothing will change that This is the norm
Gray-Hand
Roar Rookie
Mario Ledesma probably deserves a fair amount of the credit for the scrum. And to his credit, Cheika hired him. Having said that, Australian scrummaging has improved across the board at super rugby level in recent years.
Richie
Roar Rookie
Maybe Laurie Fisher had a little to do with this, and of course the tight five themselves. :thumbup:
Richie
Roar Rookie
Thanks Keith. Great article. The biggest point for mine is the players affected careers. I hope Cheika has a little think about that. You’re right though, let him slip quietly away. I must say he must now remain silent as he has no right for any future comments regarding the wallabies.
Englishbob
Guest
From the outside looking in this last four or five years I've been constantly agog with the insistence on "ball in hand" or "running rugby" that has been attempted. It borders on deliberately negligent to try to play with one strict theory about the game, not only might it not work but you're telling everyone in advance how you're going to do it, which is the wallabies win percentage all time against England in the last four years has gone from 65/35 to 50/50, England will constantly put you in your own half then tackle you to death and this is what they done seven (I think) times in a row now and everyone knew what was going to happen in advance because Cheika kindly told us so. Bizarre, it's presumably related to the fact that Aussie kids have a vast choice of games to play and the footy codes ARL and NRL are more carry based but union isn't that and never had been. The next choice of coach is sooo important now, my personal preference would be for RA to burst whatever bank it has to get Jamie Joseph or Scott Robinson onboard.
jaysper
Roar Guru
I personally think the statement that he doesn't analyze the opposition was just a stupid little throw away quip. Nobody is THAT stupid.
adastra32
Roar Rookie
I think "world-leading scrum" is pushing the envelope much too hard. Certainly the WB front five is improved for which the current/departed regime can take probably its only solace.
anon
Roar Pro
Does Raelene Castle take any responsibility for the onfield results?
AndyS
Guest
I agree RO, but any review of Australian Rugby will look no further than symptoms. No-one involved will have any appetite for root causes.