The second semi-final of the 2019 RWC sees the enigmatic Springboks tackle Wales for a spot in the final.
Sport is a funny thing.
» Wales vs Springboks live blog
A quick glance at the rivalry between these two sides after the turn of the 21st century would suggest that the Springboks have the wood over their Welsh counterparts.
Between 2000 and 2014, Wales lost 16 match-ups in a row against tonight’s semi-final opponents.
Not dissimilar to the Wallabies in the Bledisloe Cup, only five years ago – the Welsh vs South Africa match up was not really even a contest, as the Springboks beat down on a Wales side that struggled to compete with top-tier talent, and couldn’t make their mark on the world stage.
Fast forward to 2019, however, and things have changed considerably.
Wales have now won four straight against the Boks, and will look to push that number to five when the final whistle blows in Japan this evening.
The Welsh were dealt a major blow when Liam Williams went down at training with an ankle injury, that left him sidelined for the remainder of the tournament.
Leigh Halfpenny secures his place in the starting XV, slotting in at fullback, while, in a big boost, outside centre Jonathon Davies returns from injury.
He will partner Hadleigh Parkes in the centres, while their forward pack is unchanged from their last start clutch win over France.
Wales
15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies; 1 Wyn Jones, 2 Ken Owens, 3 Tomas Francis, 4 Jake Ball, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 6 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Justin Tipuric, 8 Ross Moriarty.Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Rhys Carre, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Adam Beard, 20 Aaron Shingler, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Rhys Patchell, 23 Owen Watkin.
For South Africa, dynamo winger Cheslin Kolbe has succumbed to the ankle injury he picked up in the second half against France, so Sbu Nkosi will line up in his place on the wing.
It’s not a bad replacement, either. Nkosi has a very good strike rate in Test matches, dotting down eight times in 10 starts, while he has scored in his last three appearances.
His ability with ball in hand has been well documented in his time with the Sharks in Super Rugby, and, while the loss of Kolbe is a sizeable one, don’t be surprised if Nkosi stamps his mark on this contest early.
Faf De Klerk and Handre Pollard continue their relationship in the halves, whilst Eben Etzebeth and Lood De Jager will look to decimate the Welsh line-out at set-piece time, as they did with the Japanese last start.
South Africa
15 Willie le Roux, 14 Sbu Nkosi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk; 1 Tendai Mtawarira, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 3 Frans Malherbe, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 Lood de Jager, 6 Siya Kolisi, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 8 Duane Vermeulen.Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Franco Mostert, 21 Francois Louw, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Frans Steyn.
Prediction
The weather forecast suggests there is a bit of rain around for this game, so I wouldn’t be all that surprised if it descended into a kicking contest.
De Klerk is one of the best kicking scrumhalves in the game, while Dan Biggar’s boot is undoubtedly the Welsh’s greatest weapon.
Where I see a fundamental difference in the two sides is at set-piece time. The way the South African line-out and scrum have performed so far in the tournament have been mighty impressive, and the Welsh lack a little bit of potency in attack to counteract it.
Playing two kickers in Halfpenny and Biggar may spell issues for the Welsh if they need creativity, and to put points on in attack, with ball in hand, and I suspect they may fall a touch short of a Springboks unit that continues to grow in stature and confidence with every hit-out.
South Africa by 8.
The Crow Flies Backwards
Roar Rookie
Have relatives in England and Wales. Took England last night so go Wales
Harry Jones
Expert
I really hope that’s their plan. But Gats will push the KICK button.
Harry Jones
Expert
(ii) will be key; thus, creating TO, which can be done by 11 of the 15. A team of turnover artists.
Harry Jones
Expert
Stay weird, my friend
keith
Guest
Well, we can only hope it works this time. Go Wales!
Sinclair Whitbourne
Roar Rookie
Whilst the recent wins are important in assessing Wales' chances, it is also worth bearing in mind that two were against SA teams in a pretty deep slump and they were close and at the end of a long season. Having said that, you can only play the team in front of you. Wales appear to have developed the ability to win the close games they were losing until recently and to win even when they are being outplayed for significant periods/are under the pump. That is significant. I wonder how they will cope the SA forwards, who really look outstanding. If your set-piece is under pressure you are likely to end up playing long periods in the wrong areas of the ground. The loss of Navidi hurts them in the loose, because whilst Moriarty (son of Moriarty and nephew of Moriarty - and don't start me on the Jones' boyos) is a fine player, he was coming off the bench to maintain the loose forward rage. If they struggle in the loose, then like NZ last night, they are going to be under huge pressure and they don't have a backline as good as NZ's. Halfpenny is a very fine player and gives goal-kicking backup but they lose something on attack, especially in broken play now that Williams is out. It's not that Halfpenny can't run the ball but he is not a runner in the class of Williams, who is outstanding. The Boks have looked disjointed in attack in the backs and Faf's kicking has been of variable quality but I think in a slug fest SA win based on forward power and they have the capacity to score tries in the backs if they can click, or just feed the wingers in space. Should be an intriguing game.
Japan tried that
Mango Jack
Roar Guru
I just want his game won by whoever is better placed to beat England, so although I'd like to see Wales go all the way, SAF have the set piece strength to trouble the poms. It's a weird feeling, but I'll be backing the saffers.
BiasedView
Guest
From watching their previous games in this world cup the Boks have two methods of scoring: i) rolling maul ii) opportunities from defensive turnovers Although this may indicate a particularly limited attacking machine, the two methods are almost impossible to negate. Therefore Boks by at least one try ahead at 80mins barring red cards.
Mike
Guest
They are the dark horse, 160 minutes away from doing what no other Welsh team has done before. They are going to show up and play to win. It will be similar to England vs NZ.
Mark Richmond
Roar Guru
I hope you’re right Mike, I really do......
SandBox
Roar Guru
Would be good to see a team get up that hasn’t won it before
Mike
Guest
Wales to win. As I predicted before... a all NH final. Wales to win it all and surprise everyone. You heard it here.
Keith
Guest
Wales to win on fitness in the last 10. Run the meat eaters around the park for 70 mins and then strike.
Mark Richmond
Roar Guru
My heart says Wales, my head SA. Cymru am byth!
bigbaz
Roar Guru
My Welsh and Cornish heritage wants Wales / English final but my Southern Hemisphere reality wants a SA victory
Chinmay Hejmadi
Roar Guru
I have had this niggling feeling ever since Wales beat France in the Six Nations that they will take out the World Cup. They know how to win without playing well, and that is a huge asset to have. Wales by 3.
Bobby
Roar Rookie
IF Wales win, I would be surprised but not gobsmacked! Go the Welsh !
Marlin
Roar Rookie
I am just hoping to watch a good, skillful game of rugby, the ref to let it flow, the touchies to police the offside line (what about the runners always over the halfway line at kick-off) but for what it's worth, Boks by 15
MikeJ
Roar Rookie
As much as I want the Boks to go all the way now that ABs are out, there's some part of me want Wales to go all the way as well. Its nice to have a new World Cup winner, and Wales are a huge rugby nation so if they beat the Boks I will be cheering them on. But Boks for the win.