While it was clouded in controversy, there is no question that the 2019 grand final was a cracker, played between two excellent sides.
The Roosters are now focused on trying to back up and be the first side since Parramatta in 1983 to pull off a three-peat. The Raiders are focused on regrouping and going one better in 2020 to lift the trophy.
The harsh reality is that when you examine the last four decades of the game, both scenarios are very unlikely.
Firstly, both sides are likely to experience some crucial roster changes. Already Cooper Cronk has retired from the Roosters and it is unclear just who will attempt to fill his very large boots. As the Roosters triumphed by just six points, his absence from the side may cause quite a marked drop in results. Siosiua Taukeiaho and Latrell Mitchell are also rumoured to be on the way out.
The Raiders are facing some distinct roster changes, too. Jordan Rapana is off to Japanese rugby, and the futures of Joseph Leilua and Aidan Sezer at the club are also in question.
So both sides will lose established players and their ability to adapt to the changes is unknown.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
The second factor is that it’s hard for any grand finalist to get back into the decider the following season. This is highlighted by the fact that since 1980 (not including 1997, when the competition was split), only 24 of the 76 grand final spots (31.6 per cent) were taken by sides who had played in the previous season’s decider.
Only nine of those have occurred since the NRL era began in 1998, 22 seasons ago. That’s just nine out of 40 spots (22.5 per cent). The feat has become distinctly harder to achieve. It won’t surprise you to know that eight of those nine repeat efforts have been done by the Storm (five) and the Roosters (three).
The repeat offenders since 1980 also include the Bulldogs (four times), the Sea Eagles and Eels (three times), the Raiders (twice) and the Panthers, Broncos, Dragons and Tigers (once apiece).
And if making the grand final again the following year is unlikely, then the same two sides facing off again is less likely still. Only four times (10.5 per cent) since 1980 have the same two sides played in the decider the following year: Parra and Manly in 1983, Canberra and Penrith in 1991, Brisbane and St George in 1993, and Melbourne and Manly in 2008.
Notably, the result in the rematch has changed 50 per cent of the time.
A replay the following year has only occurred once in the last 25 seasons (four per cent). So I’m advising you heavily against putting any money on a Roosters-Raiders decider in 2020.
Since 1980, 12 premiers have played in the following year’s grand final. However, only five times have they been victorious: the Eels in 1982 and ’83, the Raiders in 1990, the Broncos in 1993 and the Roosters in 2019.
While the Roosters broke a 26-year hoodoo by being the first side to go back to back since the Broncos in 1993, the last side to win three in a row was the Eels in 1983. Before that it was the Dragons’ legendary run of 11 titles that ended in 1966.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
In regards to the runners up, the odds are slightly better for success when backing up for the following year’s decider. Of the 11 times that it has been achieved since 1980, seven times they have triumphed on the second attempt: Penrith in 1991, Canterbury in 1995, Manly in 1996, Melbourne in 2007, Manly in 2008, then Melbourne again in 2009 and 2017.
The ugly reality for both the Roosters and Raiders alike is that the odds are almost 50/50 that neither side will feature in the 2020 grand final.
Since 1980, neither side has backed up to play in the decider 18 times. Thirteen of those instances have occurred during the 21 seasons of the NRL. That’s almost two thirds of the time in recent history.
Then there is an even worse scenario. Seven times the defending premier has not made the finals the following year: Canterbury after 1980, 1988, 1995 and 2004, Parramatta after 1986, Penrith after 1991, Wests Tigers after 2005, and Melbourne after 2009, once the salary cap scandal exploded.
Notably, it has not occurred since the Storm were stripped of all points in 2010. So the odds are good that the Roosters will feature in the 2020 finals.
Twelve times since 1980 the side that was runner-up has failed to make the finals the following year: the Newtown Jets after 1981, the Dragons after 1985, 1993 and 1999, the Bulldogs after 1986, the Raiders after 1991, the Roosters after 2004 and 2010, the Cowboys after 2005 and 2017, the Eels after 2009 and the Warriors after 2011.
Seven of those instances have occurred during the NRL era, so the Raiders’ chances of featuring in September in 2020 are slightly shaky.
Further – and even worse still – in five instances, neither grand finalist has even qualified for the finals the following season: the Eels and Dogs after 1986, the Panthers and Raiders after 1991, the Bulldogs and Roosters after 2004, the Tigers and Cowboys after 2005, and the Storm and Eels after 2009.
The 2020 season will be a whole new ball game and this season’s form will have little relevance when the NRL gets underway again next March.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
We hope there are different teams there.
The Phantom Bantam
Guest
It's easy to bag the Premiers.. the statement that SST and Latrell are on the way out is utter garbage both players are signed for 2020 and will fulfill their contacts Easts to win!!
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
In the same way a wombat can flip a car at speed on the freeway. Yeah, it might stop the car but the wombat is stuffed after that one effort. :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:
RudyZarzoff
Guest
We can all dream Papi.
Gyfox
Roar Rookie
Just checked the AFL fixture & Swans are playing at SCG on Saty July 4th. I think Roosters are also playing there at the same time. SCG should have been checked by NRL & AFL first, surely? I presume the NRL will have to move, as the Swans will draw a bigger crowd.
Stormy
Roar Rookie
Tim, I really hope that the Roosters are not in next year's GF. Regardless of statistics I can't see who is going to keep them out, unfortunately. It would take a huge improvement for the Storm to do it & sadly, can't see that happening. That, imo, only leaves the Raiders (would prefer them to Roosters) or some, left field, dark horse & I won't Hazzard a guess as to who that might be.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Nelson ran at him in the 2018 grand final a metre out from the line and Cronk dropped him, busted shoulder and all
damo
Roar Rookie
Well his clavicle may well break but you can be damn sure it won't make him stop running the plays, I mean water......woops!
damo
Roar Rookie
Manly are definitely one to be watched, re-sign the twin T's, another year of Dessie magic & who knows what happens. I'm a Doggies fan & Des went pretty well for us as far as I'm concerned but at Brookvale he's on another level. DCE, twin Turbos, a hard working supporting cast of over-achievers ?!? Who knows? The Storm won't go backwards but will they be able to go forwards far enough? The Roosters may be torn apart by the newly found egos & potential pay-checks or maybe CCC (Coach Cooper Cronk) gets all their chickens in a row & leads them to another GF (after all, if he can do it whilst virtually not playing last year why not in future?)
damo
Roar Rookie
Of course, but the stats are all based on past events where all the things you list have also happened in some fashion or another, so the margin of error (so to speak) is included in the statistic and therefore (IMO) reinforces it.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
You're right DB but the Roosters had the 2019 premiership won a long way from home. It's possible Winx could have lost a race but you would be stupid to bet on it. It's a bit early to call next year yet but it's starting to look like same ole same ole to me.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Hi Joe , read it on Sporting New s. They say he extended to the end of 22. They said the deal is done but who knows until the club actually confirm it.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Has this been confirmed? I haven't seen anything official, just the rumours.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Sezer still has a year left on his contract with the Raiders for 2020 so he could stay and compete with G Williams for the 7 spot. Guess it comes down to what he wants to do. He may have to spend a bit of time in the Mounties if he stays. Or do the Raiders let Sam Williams go? I suspect they've decided that they keep Sam as back up for the halves as he's probably on $150 to $200,000 whereas Sezer may be on about $500,000. Just guessing on these figures but they should be ball park. Not sure what they offered George Williams but if Bateman was offered $400,00 you would think it would have to be close to that. So if Sezer goes the Raiders may may have $100,000 (difference between G Williams and Sezer) plus whatever Rapana was on - maybe $300,000 - equals $400,000 to upgrade and keep the rest of the squad (Wighton, Bateman etc). BJ Leilua still has a year to run as well so his salary is probably already covered but they will have to think hard before extending him. I think BJ is about 28. Doesn't leave much room for further recruitment but I think they'd be pretty satisfied with what they have. So they lose Rapanan and Sezer, recruit G Williams to play 7 and Simonsson slots on to the wing. They might be looking at a couple of back up props to fill the squad but not muchmore than that. You're a Broncos fan aren't you Nat. What sort of player movement can you see over the off season for your mob?
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Oh, I forgot to add Josh Jackson to that list of rumoured new recruits. ;-)
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
But Doueihi is NOT a FB jimmmy and I sooo had my heart set on "little Papy". Next you'll be saying there's NO Santa Claus. ;-) I can only hope that Edene Gebbie from the Wynnum Manly Seagulls fits the bill as the cardinal and myrtle custodian. ;-)
Nat
Roar Guru
I'm with you, I can't see Raiders going too far backward. Obviously Williams is the anomaly, we don't know how he'll go but Sezer, correct me if I'm wrong' hasn't signed anywhere else yet and doesn't have to? So hardly a shift backward. Rapana, been great but replaceable. Raiders are an effort team more than the superstars Roosters. Play as good as they can and they'll be contenders again.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Only to be expected that Wighton and Bateman would be seeking upgrades Joe given their stellar form last season. Rapana going to Japan will free up some cash with Bailey Simonsson likely to grab his starting spot. Very disappointing as Jordy was just about my favourite Raiders player over the past 5 years but time catches up with us all. Will be interesting to see how George Williams goes in the halves and whether Sezer leaves or toughs it out. If Sezer does go (which is the most likley option) that will free up more cash with Sam Williams kept as the back up half. Feel sorry for both Jordy and Sezer as they were an integral part of the team in the past few years. They may have had their one shot at NRL glory and just fell short. But that's how the cap and squad managements works. You have to refresh your squad and let some go to retain or recruit others. It can be a pretty cruel business.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
You are spot on Baz with your 0.8% likelihood of any two teams facing each other in a Grand Final. There are 120 possible combinations of teams that could play in a GF so its 1/120 for nay combination. If there is a 10.5% chance of the Roosters playing the Raiders again next year that's a more than ten times safer bet than having to come up with another combination. I'm sure a lot of teams will improve but you'd think it would be out of the Roosters, Raiders and Storm at this early stage. The Rabbitohs will be weakened by the loss of Sam Burgess and John Sutton in terms of ability and experience but they may have $1 mill to spend with Sam gone. Manly will be strengthened if they get a full year out of Tommy T. The Eels lack consistency and are pretty ordinary away from home. If they can fix that they will be a real chance. I'm not sure about the Sharks. They've lost Gallen and Lewis in recent years and rely on players like Sean Johnson and Moylan who can be hot and cold. The Sharks just don't seem to have the same grit and nastiness under Morris when compared with the Sharks under Flanagan. Not sure how their recruitment is going but two teams who should improve are the Panthers and the Dragons. I think Gus Gould leaving really flattened the Panthers but they will have the off season to regroup. I think Flanagan could make a difference as an assistant coach at the Dragons. The bloke can coach. The Broncos have some great young forwards but they still have issues in a number of positions.
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
"Once Souths...sign Latrell Mitchell, David Fifita, Tyson Frizell and “little Papy” (Ryan Papenhuyzen)..." :laughing: