Yet to make his Test debut, Lockie Ferguson’s reputation has been built on fearsome white-ball bowling that is easily translatable to pink-ball cricket on a good Perth Stadium track.
Reminiscent of the dominance of Jasprit Bumrah in 2018, unleashing the 27-year-old now will do wonders for the travelling nation.
There are still fitness concerns around Trent Boult and Colin de Grandhomme, but assuming at least the former is fit, it only makes sense to include Ferguson.
New Zealand carry a lot of hype, which is justified given their standing as the second-ranked Test nation and the performances 2019 has brought.
With a horrendous record in Test cricket against Australia, and the fact the host nation is nigh on impossible to beat at home against teams that don’t travel well, it’s time to adopt an aggressive mindset and challenge the schoolyard bullies.
Ferguson is an easy inclusion that New Zealand can afford to bring in, given the number of bowling options the team carries.
It means the Black Caps can use him in short, sharp spells, placing importance on every single delivery he bowls and putting the Australians on notice.
Australia tends to bully the opposition when playing at home, particularly if there’s a bit of pace and bounce.
Mitch Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood can all bowl in excess of 140 kilometres per hour, and will bowl short at a relatively undersized New Zealand batting attack that probably enjoys the hook shot a little too much to keep ducking and evading.
While Neil Wagner may share a similar strategy and mindset, left-arm medium pace won’t be as effective as what Ferguson will provide.
(AP Photo/Mark Baker)
The 27-year-old has been denied a Test debut so far due to the quality of the pitches, which have not suited his bowling.
Therefore, the first day/night Test in Perth is the perfect opportunity for New Zealand to unleash their most dangerous weapon, who would form a formidable pink-ball partnership with one of the world’s best with it, Trent Boult.
Boult loves bowling with the pink ball and his swing mixed with Ferguson’s pace would test the entire Australian top order.
Tim Southee is the man who would miss out, with a record of just 25 wickets at 49.24 in 11 Tests against Australia – a record that worsens when playing away from home with 16 wickets at 50.68.
Expensive and ineffective, New Zealand must move on from their 69-Test veteran for the upcoming series, in favour of the energetic x-factor that can be brought by Ferguson.
Competitiveness rests on the entire team, and the aggressive approach must be brought with the bat as well.
New Zealand should become creative in a bid to take the game on, dropping opener Jeet Raval and offering the aggressive and crafty Tom Blundell the opportunity to open the batting.
With ball in hand, however, the selection of Lockie Ferguson could instigate another boil-over in Australia by a travelling team.
His first-class record is nothing to sneeze at – 153 wickets in 42 matches at an average of 24.30.
Ferguson was only used sporadically five years ago as an option in first-class cricket, but his long-form improvement has been noticeable. And with a good run in the UK with Derbyshire as well as an impressive 11 five-fors in his first-class career, Ferguson is ready for the responsibility of Test cricket.
Most importantly, Ferguson’s mentality and confidence hasn’t been sullied by scars of the past.
Even if there is hype surrounding him, Ferguson proved he can handle it in the World Cup, where he was the most impressive bowler in the competition and nearly helped his team win the entire tournament.
As India did against an admittedly under-strength Australian team, New Zealand need to match fire with fire.
This time, however, it must come from adopting a similar strategy with bat in hand, and with scary bowling.
Lockie Ferguson has been preparing for a Test debut for a while now.
If New Zealand want to defy history and be as competitive as everyone is expecting, it’s time to pull the trigger.
Ferguson must play in Perth to help New Zealand cap off a stunning 2019.
Azza
Roar Rookie
Pak were 0/60 day 1 lunch at Gabba against AUSTRALIA “stunning “ attack...
Azza
Roar Rookie
Why everyone going on about the heat? It’s a dry heat! And NZ have played in Sri Lanka and UAE heat before! It makes NZers blood boil when their record is mentioned in Aust, because we all know it should be at least 5 wins, but for some atrocious umpiring! Rub of green always goes Aussies way, formerwin at all costs mantra was sickening , influenced umpires.
Micko
Roar Rookie
Due to his over reliance on swing, he's a big liability for NZ though. In hot aussie conditions on flat tracks with a kookaburra, there's limited swing on offer. That's why he's been cannon fodder here.
Sylvester
Guest
I'd personally like to see LF play, but I don't think it's the conservative option by retaining Southee. He's been a proven performer over several years, a leader in the side, and also a key slip fielder. That's potentially more destabilising than people may think.
Lara
Guest
If the pitch gives any assistance for the bowlers, NZ should stick with the statusquo. Their bowling group works will together , their captain knows how to utilise them....they will use the same eleven with Boult back in , if fit. Ferguson may get his chance later on the tour. They may not be express pace, but they have the skill level n confidence. They need their batsman to perform, especially their openers, especially one in particular.
Targa
Roar Rookie
The key is the toss. Kane needs to call correctly, NZ needs to bat 150 overs, score 500 and put pressure on Australia especially if the cracks become an issue later in the test. It will be very hard for NZ to win if Australia bats first as the bowlers will wilt under 40C if Warner or Smith get big runs on day 1.
Paul
Roar Guru
This might be an "agree to disagree moment", Dem. I guess we'll have to wait for Friday to see a) if Ferguson plays and b) how he goes if he gets to debut. I'm hoping he does play and does well. As I said a little earlier, I want Australia to play the Black Caps best, so we can get a feel for where our Test team really is.
Dem Panopoulos
Expert
This is the downfall of any team in any sport. The moment the mindset is more about holding on or being competitive, the quicker the inevitable negative outcome arrives. Biting the bullet and going for it is the best way to approach this test, and Ferguson over Southee is exactly the right move.
Dem Panopoulos
Expert
Thanks for reading Paul. NZ's deep bowling attack means Ferguson can be used in short, sharp bursts and be more effective, as mentioned. His average of overs per innings is perfectly reasonable in first class cricket, although it has certainly increased in recent years. Regarding the World Cup, Ferguson was the most impressive bowler. People expected Starc to rip through the opposition, particularly lesser nations, and if he didn't, there'd have been more headlines questioning him. Ferguson put his nation on his back, with many opposition fanbases not knowing much about him, and he nearly pulled them over the line. I think his ability is easily transferrable to this first Test and the rest of his career.
Dem Panopoulos
Expert
Thanks for reading Dave. I certainly think NZ batsmen are susceptible to that short stuff, as written, they tend to enjoy playing that hook shot and it can get them in trouble with extra pace and bounce. Even worse, if they decide to put the shots away, they may get stuck. I think 2019 has been a stunning year for NZ, as the overall progression of cricket in the country has certainly reached a height not seen in over a decade. Constantly putting together good performances in all forms of the game, nearly winning the WC and destroying England, this has been the best period of cricket we've seen in years.
Dem Panopoulos
Expert
Thanks for reading Riccardo! Think the heat itself gives a big advantage to Australia, given the importance that has been placed on building a good fitness base. The likes of Warner won't be affected by the Heat. Hopefully NZ can get their players up and fit, short, sharp bursts from Ferguson could be destructive if used properly. I definitely think Ferguson is a must-play for NZ, not sure about the headline itself necessarily.
TheGeneral
Roar Rookie
It will be interesting to see how the NZ bowlers go in the Perth test. Interesting also how our team has changed in the last 12 months, when we beat India in Perth. The top five then were Harris, Finch, Khawaja, SMarsh, and Handscomb. This time the top five will be Warner, Burns, Labs, Smith and Wade. So in the space of 12 months, our top five has completely changed. So we beat India with five players who are no longer in the test team. Most would say the top five in this test are far superior. We should handle the NZ attack, but cricket is a funny game. It would be ironic if we do not win this test, but we beat India with five players not in the current side.
Gomez
Guest
I agree: I'm not sure they will take the chance. Crazy really, more nervous about what may go wrong then looking at what they may gain. Attack, attack, attack: you won't defeat Australia with a timid mindset. He who dares, wins. Be bold.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Makes sense given Southee’s underwhelming record vs Australia. They also have de Grandhomme as back up in the heat, and possibly to take advantage of the evening conditions. I wouldn’t say India beat us with “fire” last year, just very skilful bowling against a flimsy batting lineup, four of whom won’t be involved this time (Finch, Harris, Marsh, Khawaja). The interesting thing about the Perth Test last year was that Lyon was man of the match with eight wickets, while India didn’t play a spinner. Mohammed Shami took 6/56 in the second innings, which wasn’t good enough, but also should give the NZ quicks they can do well if the pitch is a bit helpful (though last year it was partly about cracks as well as seam). Also, this statement is wide of the mark: “Aus will bowl short at a relatively undersized New Zealand batting lineup”. Short batsmen have generally been better at playing short pitched bowling as tall ones. NZ have had a very good year if you include making the WC ODI final, but “stunning”? In Tests, they’ve beaten Bangladesh and England at home and drawn away to Sri Lanka. I guess consecutive series wins over Eng and Aus would be stunning for NZ, but the series doesn’t end in Perth.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Despite his record in Australia, I suspect NZ will be very hesitant to leave Southee out. He's their co-VC and his record over the last two years is excellent. He's a vastly improved bowler since their 2015 tour. I think Ferguson is likely to be more effective on Australian pitches; I'm just not sure NZ will take the chance, particularly with the pink ball in Perth.
Gomez
Guest
If any other nation had a 150 kph nasty fasty in the mix, they'd be straight in. But with NZ cricket, you have to understand that selection policies are extremely conservative, and there is a lot of attention paid to pecking orders and not ruffling the feathers of established players. Attacks thrive on variety: we've got swing bowlers + a guy bowling targeted bumpers - but they mostly operate around 128 - 135 kph, though Boult can get them through at around 140 kph at times. If the ball isn't swinging, it's a very samey attack with all the emphasis on Wagners bumpers to try and get wickets. There is no shock weapon, no 'nasty fasty', nothing to draw the batsmen out of the medium pace comfort zone - and that is where Ferguson would offer such a point of difference.
Paul
Roar Guru
Gee you've made some big statements, Dem. "fearsome white-ball bowling that is easily translatable to pink-ball cricket on a good Perth Stadium track." How do you know how Ferguson will go when a) he hasn't played a pink ball Test and b) we have no idea how he'll go, not only in his First Test but on the Perth pitch in 40 degree heat after arriving from New Zealand less than a week ago. Ferguson's first class career has been good to date, but he's only averaging 16 overs an innings. That might work in Perth where conditions favour guys who are genuinely quick, but will he be able to hack it when the team plays in Melbourne - assuming they have a pitch to play on. What ever decision the Black Caps make, I hope Australia plays the best they have to offer. We've had a pretty cruisy summer so far and I want to see our guys really tested. If Ferguson get's a callup, I hope he does himself justice. By the way, you might want to rethink this statement. "Ferguson proved he can handle it in the World Cup, where he was the most impressive bowler in the competition". The stats would suggest Mitchel Starc was clearly the most impressive bowler in the WC. More wickets at a better average & better strike rate.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
Well, if they are waiting for the right conditions to try Ferguson it's hard to see when he will presented with better ones on this tour. Of the 3 decks that will be used Perth is easily the quickest and bounciest. On this tour it's now or never isn't it.
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
Simon Doull has echoed your sentiment in as far as attack must be the strategy. Lockie certainly fits that bill although scary may be a bit of a stretch. But he could be a handful on a lively Perth pitch. Being the only chance to win the Perth Test? Hope you didn't pick the title. Reckon they may persist with Raval and I'd be happy if he rotated strike once an over and left most deliveries while the new ball loses it's lacquer and he settles in. A lot will depend on Trent's and de GrandDesign's fitness too. Omissions are likely to affect the team's make-up and balance. Much is being made of the Perth heat. Will the ball swing? Southee will figure if that's the case. The Black Caps line-up is reasonably settled and that has been a strength.