Over the past few weeks there have been some good-natured jibes launched in my direction from north of the border.
The sources have been motivated to do so thanks to my usually astute tipping, which has established a comfortable lead over the remainder of The Roar’s A-League expert tips and predictions panel, and my consistent failures when hypothesising on matches involving Brisbane Roar.
Intriguing and endlessly infuriating for fans of the men in orange has been the consistent kiss of death I have been able to apply to Robbie Fowler’s squad. Undefeated in 2020, Brisbane are starting to take shape and win after starting the season with a disturbing inability to score first-half goals.
The Roar managed just two wins from their first ten matches. One was a freakish comeback against Melbourne City, the other was a 2-0 victory against the Mariners in late November.
Aside from those wins, three points were also gained, yet as the sun set on 2019 for the final time, Brisbane had slumped to second from bottom.
Such a situation was anticipated by few, with most seeing improvement in a Brisbane squad now littered with experienced professionals from the lower leagues in the British Isles. Despite agreeing with that line of thinking, Perth did seem the logical winner in their opening round fixture against the Roar.
And thus began the stormy relationship between Brisbane and me, with the eventual 1-1 draw leaving many with egg on their faces. I wrote at the time, “Perth will get the job done, yet expect this new and tougher Roar side to bear its teeth at some stage in the near future”.
I climbed aboard the Roar train in Round 3, expecting them to man-handle the Victory at Suncorp. A lone first half goal to Andrew Nabbout killed that tip and is where the little sonata involving Brisbane Roar and the writer becomes rather interesting.
(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
Torn between believing that a squad of players Fowler had thought would be good enough were not and the view that his team merely needed more time to gel, our tense relationship festered.
The Wanderers would surely prove too tough a nut to crack at Bankwest Stadium in Round 4? Nope, my tip cursed this time by a bland scoreless draw. I climbed back on board the following week predicting a draw at Coopers Stadium, however Riley McGree’s late goal confirmed that Brisbane Roar and I are destined never to see eye to eye.
A hot Melbourne City appeared likely winners at Dolphin Stadium the following weekend before Brisbane found four second half goals in a gale that could have blown a dog off a chain.
It was another failed tip, although the Phoenix did come to the party when they secured a 2-1 win at home in Round 7. Surely I had something of a read on the Roar now?
Round 8 brought Brisbane’s second win of the season against the Mariners. I’ll take the credit again after siding with Alen Stajcic’s men pre-game. Nobody could dare have tipped Brisbane in Round 9, slated against Sydney FC on their own deck. The 5-1 scoreline was embarrassing but predictable.
Not knowing which way to turn after just two wins and a drubbing at Sydney’s hands, I was at a loss heading into Western United’s trip to Brisbane in Round 10. They travelled and won, with my endorsement in the tipping.
Had I finally worked out my mysterious neighbour from up north?
(Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Ah, no. Despite predicting a successful trip to Newcastle to play the nose-diving Jets in their final match of 2019, Fowler’s men fizzled. Perhaps it was time to climb off the conveyance and ditch this mob for good?
I did so the following week and the predictable played out as Western Sydney squandered an early to give Roar their third win of the season. Should I jump back on?
Surely not against City in Round 14. True to form, a Brad Inman brace secured another point against City, and after Dylan Wenzel-Halls’ stunning strike to gain the points against the Phoenix in Round 15, Brisbane Roar had officially become my Lex Luthor.
The curse was confirmed on Saturday when Corey Brown squeezed an effort past Mark Birighitti to secure the points against the unlucky Mariners.
Brisbane have played 14 matches in season 2019-20. I have tipped them twice and on both occasions they have lost. Of the five matches they have won, I have tipped against them each and every time.
It appears I may well be the kiss of death that some north of the border have claimed. Robbie Fowler had best hope I keep away from his charges, with the Roar likely to be entrenched in the top six fairly soon and looking for more wins.
AndyAdelaide
Roar Rookie
theres too many threats in our team to not make the playoffs, i personally feel were good enough for the semis, if our centrebacks actually decide to concentrate for 90 mins for a change lol
Waz
Roar Rookie
Ha Ha. Huge assumption Adelaide will be making play offs :stoked:
Buddy
Roar Rookie
JB - definitely not a science and not something I ever engage in, not for any sport! I totally accept the argument for needing time and probably more than a season. However, we live in an age of short attention spans, short fuses and the need for instant rewards and success and the media goes a long way in building unrealistic expectations yet we only have to look at where success lies. Locally we have SFC - stability rules and whilst it might be considered as good fortune, the succession plan has worked on the coaching front and also on the field. In England, Liverpool have been steadily building and regenerating for a long time. They have had some heartaches along the way and have undoubtedly made mistakes along the way both on and off the field and they have had players like Raheem Sterling that wanted instant success yet I can’t help thinking that had he remained on board the Klopp bus, he would enjoy and savour what the club will be enjoying in May of this year. If you want to tip successfully, look at the bookmakers odds. Who was the last bookmaker to go broke?
AndyAdelaide
Roar Rookie
I like your optimism, wouldn’t expect anything else from a loyal supporter. See you in the play-offs next year :silly:
coolncold
Roar Rookie
I prepared to say this at the end of this season but it may be the time to do so. Along with Stuart’s saying of difficulty of tipping Fowler’s Roar, Fowler has been changing rapidly and frequently. That may be the reason of tense in tipping Roar’s performance. It is yet early to tell whether Fowler is struggling to find the best lining up and formation or not. Or, simply, adjusting according to the situation and/or the opponents is his STYLE of coaching. Anyhow, he changes a lot. He may substitute at half time, not at around 70 minutes. He has 4-4-2 (R1), 3-1-4-2 (R3), 3-4-3 (R4), 3-4-3 (R5), 3-4-3 (R6), 5-3-2 (R7), 4-1-4-1 (R8), 4-4-1-1 (R9). 4-2-3-1 (R10), 3-4-3 (R12), 3-4-3 (R13), 3-4-3 (R14), 3-4-3 (R15), and 3-4-3 (R16). Anyhow, the bringing back of Corey Brown shows he knows the problem. He cannot have a style as he is new in senior coaching. However, hope it is his style as it makes unpredictability.
jbinnie
Guest
Buddy - As you are well aware "tipping" is not a exact science and it surprises me somewhat to see Stu writing an article on his success or failure at this "guessing game". Roar are a club in limbo, having imported what most would describe as 'tradesmen players" it has to be remembered, and I speak from some experience, that most imported players take at least a season to start to produce their best form and in Roar's case that factor could be affecting at least half of their "run on" team. When one also takes into consideration that at least another 2 or 3 of their run on team are graduated from reserve squads, "tipping" Roar is a task fraught with danger and one that I would steer clear from, no matter who or where they are playing. Can they match it this season with the "big boys" in the league?. That is doubtful for at this point in time they still lack a playmaker with foresight and this continues to affect the performances of those playing up high. Despite what the management may be saying publicly the squad still has weaknesses and these positions have to be filled with better players. cheers jb.
Waz
Roar Rookie
The style they’re playing I understand your sentiment, it’s very hard to defend your way through a season and RF can’t seem to get his attack working. But there’s not a lot above us to fear. SFC are a light year ahead of every one, Glory look really solid and maybe City can match Glory but they’re a soft side mentally and can always be beaten. Nix, Adelaide, Western, and Roar are currently the 4 sides fighting over places 4-6 with only five points between them but two have a game in hand on the others. That’s right and everyone says the table doesn’t lie right? Form over the last 5 games certainly favours Roar and there’s not a lot to separate any of these 4 - all of whom will be nervously looking over their shoulders at Marco Rojas, err I mean Victory, as well.
AndyAdelaide
Roar Rookie
Roar top 4? You're having a laugh right waz? Roar aren't making the 6 this year, next year is your year :silly:
Waz
Roar Rookie
Roar “won” the first half, Mariners the second. Both sides are poor at converting possession to chances and chances to goals. If “fairness” were a thing it would have been a draw. And I pity you if you’re going to watch it back. It was an ugly game.
Waz
Roar Rookie
Roar are hard to predict before the game but there’s some simple observations. Score first and the opponent has a good chance of at least a draw Don’t score first and you’re in trouble. No one has scored more goals in the last 15 minutes than Roar, they’re a fit side. Only 3 sides have conceded fewer goals, and only two sides have more clean sheets so their defence is one of the best in the Comp. Apart from a blow-out away to SFC they’ve not been beaten by much and have only lost 5 - again, only three sides have lost fewer games.
Franko
Guest
Agreed, any arbitrary stat can be used. I'll try catch the highlights tonight. From the A-League website: When the Mariners go in to the sheds the one question the will ask themselves is, how did that one get away? From The Roar Central Coast Mariners, however, will be left wondering how they didn’t at least gain a point from this game
TK
Guest
My view of the roar at present is that rather teams are losing to them rather than being beaten by them. It's a subtle distinction and won't help your tipping Stuart. In the next 5 rounds they play sides all above them so that will reveal a bit more about improvement. They certainly aren't playing well as a team but at least have managed to accumulate some points recently while they keep trying to work out how to play together.
Waz
Roar Rookie
If you analyse performance using statistics and not results you can draw conclusions on where sides need to be improved - as you say with Adelaide and a decent striker. To pick one stat (“total shots”) is meaningless (as is “shots on target” by the way but that was my retort not my argument) Mariners are a bottom 3 side and look more likely to finish last than make finals. Roar are a middle of the table side and could finish anywhere between 8th and 4th along with a handful of other sides.
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
I must use the same "system" as you when I have a punt on four legged conveyances. I often narrow the chances down to 2 & inevitably the wrong one wins. No I'm not smart enough to have a small "saver" on the other.
Lionheart
Roar Rookie
Keep it up Stu, always respect your tips. I just hope we don't get whacked by your favoured team this round. And good luck in the NYL too.
AndyAdelaide
Roar Rookie
lol you use my same argument with adelaide (top of shots on goal, top 2 in possession in the league) could've and should've beaten sydney on both occasions. can you imagine if we actually had a quality striker and centreback? we would be dominating this league lol
Lionheart
Roar Rookie
can't say what's a rightful spot at present but yes I agree, 7 sits with Roar's season; then, look at the shed load of pretenders between 2 and 6. In reality, there are no rightful spots this season, after 1.
Waz
Roar Rookie
Roar had twice as many shots on target as a result of 55% possession is another way of looking at it.
Franko
Guest
No doubt there is improvement to come but a last minute own goal was needed against 10th placed Mariners. Mariners had more shots? Think Brisbane are in about the right spot, 7th.
Buddy
Roar Rookie
Life would be so much easier if games were played on paper although bookmakers would go broke very quickly. I’ve always enjoyed reading Jekyll and Hyde stories and this season the A League is littered with stories of this ilk. Good one week, poor the next, poor in the first half and brilliant in the second; yes the coaches’ nightmare we usually refer to as consistency. True, there is an exception sitting on the top of the tree but meanwhile everyone else is scratching around trying to find the secret formula. In the case of Brisbane, I suspect that it is not just the players learning how to play together but the coach is on a sharp learning curve as well and iit is only of late that he has really settled into the role and has learnt from mistakes that cropped up earlier in the season.