Since John Worsfold took over Essendon in 2016 amid the most calamitous time in the club’s history, the best word to describe the club would be ‘mediocre’.
There’s plenty of differing opinions about whether Worsfold’s time at the Bombers has been a success.
Some point out that two finals series over the three years he had a proper football team and after the disastrous doping scandal is a good outcome. However, others point to the fact they were in this exact same spot before the doping scandal and therefore he hasn’t improved the list.
Whatever view you have won’t matter too much this season as Worsfold coaches for one more year and then hands the reigns to Ben Rutten under a succession plan that Essendon announced last year.
Finals are an expectation for the Bombers yet again in 2020, and you would assume a pass mark would be to at least win one final after failing at the first hurdle in September last season.
Best 22
FB: Martin Gleeson, Michael Hurley, Aaron Francis
HB: Mason Redman, Patrick Ambrose, Adam Saad
C: Conor McKenna, Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett
HF: Orazio Fantasia, Cale Hooker, Devon Smith
FF: Jake Stringer, Shaun McKernan, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
Foll: Andrew Phillips, Dylan Shiel, Andrew McGrath
IC: Mitchell Hibberd, Tom Cutler, Kyle Langford, Jayden Laverde
(Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Defence
Essendon’s defence is the best part of their team, and it should improve this season providing the likes of Patrick Ambrose, Aaron Francis, Mason Redman and Martin Gleeson can continue to improve.
Ambrose was terrific last year, shutting down some of the biggest names in the competition as a lockdown defender, and even though he’s 28 he has played only 87 games, which means there should be scope for improvement.
Francis was terrific in parts last season and has already shown he has the natural ability to make it at AFL level. He is a brilliant mark, extremely quick for his size and has sublime foot skills for a key defender. At the age of 22 he is a key part of Essendon’s future.
Michael Hurley is still one of the premier defenders in the competition, and although he didn’t reach the heights expected of him last season it’s hard to see him not bouncing back and being an All Australian contender again.
The main weapon the Bombers have in their backline is the run and carry that they generate, which can lead to goals. Adam Saad had a brilliant season last year, averaging 17 disposals a game, ranking second in bounces per game and 19th in total rebound 50s. Conor McKenna is another who had a brilliant season, averaging 20 disposals a game, ranking first in bounces per game and 15th in total rebound 50s.
The likes of Mason Redman and Aaron Francis are also good enough to break the lines with either their speed or kicking ability, which is always a worry for opposition teams.
Midfield
Essendon has tried to bolster their midfield in recent years, trading in Dylan Shiel and Devon Smith from the Giants, but it hasn’t made much impact on the team.
Admittedly Smith had a brilliant debut season at the Bombers before being crippled by injuries last season. Even with him being fully fit, though, he is more of a half-forward than an actual midfielder, and that’s something Essendon has an abundance of.
The issue with the Essendon midfield is that they don’t have any star power. Zach Merrett is widely accepted as being their best midfielder, but he isn’t elite. Merrett averaged 28 disposals a game, ranked 13th in total inside 50s for any player and ranked 11th in total disposals across the competition. However, he doesn’t win the contested ball enough and he doesn’t damage opposition teams with his disposals. He ranked fifth in turnovers per game last year, which solidifies the fact that he doesn’t hurt teams enough.
Dyson Heppell hasn’t been the same player since the drug saga occurred. Heppell averaged 28 disposals a game in 2014 and looked like being an elite player in the competition, but he just hasn’t had as much damage in games as he used too. In hindsight being made captain probably wasn’t the right decision. Heppell is yet another Bomber that ranked in the top 20 for turnovers per game, something which is a trend among the Essendon midfield.
It sounds like a tape recording, but Dylan Shiel is another who gets plenty of the ball but doesn’t use it well. He is more important to the side than Merrett and Heppell are purely because he is a very good contested ballplayer. He ranked ninth in centre clearances per game last year as well as 19th in total metres gained and 14th in total bounces.
Their midfield depth is also an issue for them. Outside of Merrett, Heppell, Shiel and McGrath there isn’t much left. Smith can rotate through there to a degree, as can Langford, but it stops there. For the Bombers to improve this year they need at least a few more midfielders to have breakout seasons.
(Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Attack
Essendon’s small forwards are among the best in the competition, with the likes of Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (32 goals), Jake Stringer (33 goals) and Orazio Fantasia (20 goals) all having relatively good seasons last year.
There is scope for improvement out of these three as well. Jake Stringer’s best season was when he kicked 56 goals in 2015 as he carried his former team, the Bulldogs, to an unlikely finals berth. The very next season he kicked 42 goals and became a premiership player.
In 2017 Fantasia kicked 39 goals. He was the best Bombers small forward by a fair way that year and there’s no reason he can’t get back to that type of goal tally providing he stays on the park and has an injury-free preseason.
However, the big issue is still Essendon’s key forwards. With Joe Daniher out for the first half of the season, just like last year, the cupboard seems bare for the Bombers.
Cale Hooker will most likely find himself playing as a key forward this season, the position which saw him kick 41 goals in 2017. However, there would be serious queries around whether he could do that again. He’s three years older than he was then and he is already starting to slow down.
The forward line’s hopes rely on Shaun McKernan and, realistically, that is a terrible situation. He’s been in the competition for ten years now and he has struggled to get regular games until last season, during which he played 16 games and kicked a career-high goal tally of 17 goals.
The lack of even a competent key forward who can hold down and lead a forward line will be Essendon’s Achilles heel in 2020 and will most likely see them regress.
Prediction
Essendon has scraped into the finals in two out of the last three seasons, but it’s hard to see that happening in 2020.
It’s hard to see where the improvement is coming from, with only McGrath, Parish and Francis looking like they can become very good players.
They didn’t address their need for a midfielder who can use it well or their lack of a good key forward – or even a second tall if Daniher were fit.
The 2020 season will be a rebuilding year for the Bombers as the succession plan takes place, but the supporters who are expecting another finals appearance won’t be happy.
Predicted finish: 13th
justif01
Guest
My thinking is that Hawthorn will replace Essendon in the top 8 this year. The Hawks have picked up players to fill needs in Frost and Patton and Mitchell returns as well. The Bombers let Michael Hartley walk to the Hawks which is silly as he could have gone forward and been used as a marking target. Whilst the ruck may not be as much of an issue now they really still are thin their with Draper coming back from an ACL and Bellchambers being injury prone. Devon Smith adds to the side but more as a pressure forward than a midfielder. Heppell, Shiel, McGrath, Merrett are all good midfielders but Essendon lack a large inside mid that can contest at stoppages like Jobe Watson used to. Realistically to improve they need the Joe Daniher of 2017 to return otherwise they are simply treading water, whether Daniher can return to that is anyones guess.
Chris
Roar Rookie
Pittonet as a pickup won’t be terrible. Probably be better than Kreuzer in fact.
Anthony
Guest
Merrett Shiel Heppell Smith McGrath Parish are the main stays. Zaharakis and Cutler are proven mid depth at AFL level. Even Stringer has had an impact there consistently in bursts. That’s nine. More are needed, but it’s not as dire as you’re making out. Players like Langford, Clarke, Guelfi, Ham, etc. might be ordinary role players, but which teams 10th-13th best mids are stars?
Anthony
Guest
Carlton were mad to let him go. Kreuzer is like 31 and they have nobody else competent.
Anthony
Guest
Only two Essendon mids played more games than him in 2019. Just because a young player is rested or dropped for a game, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s not best 22.
Anthony
Guest
How much do you watch Merrett? He was 51st in the league for clearances per game, 42nd for contested possessions and 26th for tackles per game. Stats aren’t everything, but he clearly has a decent inside game. Kicking is actually a strength of his when allowed to play more outside, but due to our obvious lack of inside mids he hasn’t been able to play his most natural role.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
The Dons haven't won a final since 2004, you don't seem too enthusiastic about them breaking the drought in 2020. I know things can turn around quite quickly sometimes but if it doesn't, would this be the longest period of non-performance in Essendon's history? They have always been a strong club in my 50 years of watching the game.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Oh come on. It's not 'shocking' if they are there to support a pre-existing midfield unit (Merrett, Heppell, Shiel, Smith, McGrath, Parish, Zaharakis), coming in to play a role if and when needed. That's the whole point of depth. Of those three, only Cutler seems a real chance to be in the starting 22 in round 1 but that's fine. Adding depth isn't about recruiting core players. Not sure where you're getting the idea that Cutler has been 'relatively poor his whole career'? He had a pretty good 2018 and got squeezed out last year by the emergence of a couple of highly talented youngsters and then injury. His preferred spot is on the wing but he wasn't going to push McCluggage or Robinson out. On the other hand, Essendon could use a genuine wingman, if he can perform well enough to claim that spot. And Townsend played forward because he couldn't break into Richmond's midfield unit. No shame in that. Shiel clearly had a worse year disposal-wise than he did in previous seasons at GWS. It makes perfect sense that being more familiar with a team's gameplan, personnel and structure would result in better ball use (as evidenced by the fact that Shiel's disposal got more effective as 2019 wore on), and I think you know that. No one's claiming that Shiel will suddenly become Scott Pendlebury with his kicking but there is plenty of scope to improve.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Yeah I think the AFL in general would be better for a player like Joe being up and about. He's just fun to watch.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
I am doubtful of both Essendon and Melbourne's prospects. I thought if Essendon had Daniher available for most of the season, they would be contention to play finals again but it looks like he won't play until the middle of the season and that really damages their prospects in my opinion. Melbourne finished in the bottom two for a reason last year and I cannot see them rising up the ladder dramatically. Simon Goodwin does not seem like the right guy to lead them forward. They have too many b-graders such as Petracca and Viney. I think recruiting May was a mistake in hindsight. They would have been better off going to the draft
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
Yes the betting markets have them in a clear cut group of 8 teams to make the finals. Melbourne / Essendon are on the next line of betting @ $2.50 to make the finals. So your prediction is in line with the so called experts. Looking forward to the 2020 season. Some pretty strong teams so the competition should produce some great games.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
Hawks will probably finish in the top 8 and replace Essendon in there. The return of Mitchell is a big plus for them. They should have played finals last year to be honest but they lost a lot of close games.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
Yeah I think Melbourne are backing themselves into a corner with the documentary to hell and back when they have accomplished nothing yet. It would be very bad optics if they failed to make finals and finish around the bottom part of the ladder again, which is certainly a good possibility. Goodwin also doesn’t seem to know what he is doing and is regularly outcoached during games. He and Hinkley would be under the most pressure this year to get results.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
Curious to hear where you think the overeating Hawks will finish?
guest
Guest
The fact you don't think a fit Parish is in the best 22 tells me you don't know this team well at all.
Stix
Guest
Not at all he is a good quality ruckman - wont give you much around the ground like many ruckman though.
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
I think if the bombers stay fit, like my mob lack proven depth they can sneak in the 8 they are a team i love to watch when there firing.I think Shiel is a real star, it is well known his disposal was down but contrary to some it was very good at GWS.He is in for a great year. If Joe'y can stay on the park it would be a huge bonus.
Jakarta Fan
Roar Rookie
Unfortunately you have overlooked several young players developing very well who can be expected to have a bigger impact this year, e.g. Guelfi, Ham, Ridley, Zerk-Thatcher. This year Smith and Fantasia will be like new players. The biggest problems are a few key injuries but hey, those injuries were there last year and the Bombers still made the finals e.g. Daniher, Stewart, Bellchambers, but I still expect all 3 to do better this year than last year. McKenna's homesickness is sad and we can only hope he's back in a fortnight and ready to go. The freezing cold of Ireland may convince him to return to where he's a really beloved Bomber. I expect Essendon to be around the same as last year, maybe 6-10 is a fair guestimate depending on the fitness and injury side of things.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Melbourne and the Dogs are chalk and cheese. The Dogs are a young skillful side, whereas Melbourne is Max Gawn and 21 spuds who can't kick. The losses against the lowly sides last year were early in the year and I expect a much better frame of mind against those teams this year. They are all a year older and a year fitter, so I'm expecting those lapses to be less prevalent. Then again, Champion Data ranked them second, and we all know how accurate they are...
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Essendon just don't have the cattle to make the finals. They're continually overrated by their supporters.