I continue my series by previewing teams with 2019 grand finalist the Canberra Raiders, with the help from the Greenhouse.
Surprising most people last year by making the grand final, their fans help preview what to expect this season and what can be done to go one step further this year. Every bullet point represents a different person answering the given question.
What are the biggest changes that need to be made from last year to go one better?
• More creativity in attack. We had a ton of chances to punch in points against the Roosters and we just could not break through. We need to continue to focus on being a defensive-minded team but more creativity and better execution in the red zone is going to be what takes us above. We need to be able to reliably feel like we can punch it in at least three times against the best defensive teams in the comp.
• Seizing the vital moments and having a more ruthless attitude. We were very, very close – a pass not thrown here, a contentious call there, an absurd bit of luck, a lazy piece of defence when Joseph Tapine turned his back while defending his line. Some of those we can’t control, but some parts we can. Ricky Stuart culled one or two of those people from the squad and has given others one more chance. So this year the ruthlessness has come from the top down. It was lacking after 2016 and we slid backwards.
After having such a great year last year by making the grand final, how do you avoid a having an off year like you did in 2017 after having a great 2016?
• Injuries could be a factor. If you get wrecked there is not much you can do to avoid the hangover. But outside of that, it’s purely a mental thing, the team needs to understand nothing they did last year means anything now. It’s a new season and they need to work hard to establish themselves again and work to finding out what sort of team they’re going to be this year.
• After those seasons, the club failed to refresh the squad, which led to a slight sense of entitlement/staleness to the squad. You could also argue there was some hubris, with Stuart altering his pre-season to have guys firing in September, not Round 1. The club made an effort to bring in new faces this year, even after such a successful year last year and at some pain to the club, losing favourites and stalwarts like Jordan Rapana and Joey Leilua in search of future success. We are hoping those are the hard decisions that we failed to take in 2016 and ’17.
(Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
You have lost BJ Leilua and Jordan Rapana, so do you have depth to replace and possibly replicate their production?
• Hard to replicate and replace what that duo gave us. It’s not likely we’ll match that, and certainly not if Curtis Scott ends up with a lengthy suspension, which is likely. But you hope the new halfback provides the upgrade in creativity spoken about above, and that along with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad developing further as a ball-player, the attack of the team might not be as freakish but perhaps it can be more reliable and that’s a good offset. As for depth, I think Michael Oldfield is as good a back-up winger as you can have in this league so I’m comfortable there, and there is big wraps on Harley Smith-Shields, who’s a centre.
• You never know who is going to have a breakout year or how a signing will go. With Scott we had some breathing space for young guys like Smith-Shields to develop. With Scott looking at missing a significant period, we are one injury away from a real depth crisis. Oldfield and Smith-Shields will need to be on deck and making the grade.
George Williams is another English player signed by the Raiders. Will he have a similar impact to other English players?
• The history on English halves is not great, and it’s easier to make an impact in the forwards the way John Bateman and Elliott Whitehead and others have. Josh Hodgson is one of the best hookers in the league and if that’s the level of impact we get, this team is ready to win the title. I don’t think he’ll have that level of impact but I do expect him to be a good upgrade for us.
• We have no idea really. Gareth Widdop came over and did OK as a playmaker, which gives me some optimism. But he’s been hampered in pre-season by injury and the whole vibe around this off-season has me more worried than I was a few months ago. It’s almost impossible to hope he’s as good as Hodgson or Bateman. But if he’s half as good as Whitehead and adapts at a similar speed (half a season to really find his feet, a breather around the Origin/bye periods and then good to go) then we’ll be OK.
Not many players leave Melbourne as better players. What makes you think Curtis Scott will be any different?
• Nothing. As it stands he may not last long at the club. If he can get his head right and stay out of trouble then I think he will be an impactful player. He’s young, nowhere near his best and his talent is undeniable. He’ll fit our defensive structure well and I think his attacking game is under-rated. But as of right now, its been a disastrous start.
• Greg Inglis and Cooper Cronk went OK. Sisa Waqa was good for us once upon a time too. It is a bit of an overblown myth. But at this stage it looks to me like Scott is not behaving like someone who really has winning the GF as his number one drive right now.
(Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
What’s your team’s biggest strength and the biggest weakness?
• Biggest strength is the forward pack. It’s big enough, its very tough, it’s very mobile and it has a very good balance of impact, motor, experience and youth. There is natural pairings and rotations in the middle third players, and versatility in the bench and back-rower to ramp up minutes and cover for injuries. Weakness at the moment? You’d have to say it’s centre and halfback because the projected starters right now are two guys (Smith-Shields and George Williams) who have never played NRL footy and we don’t know what they are yet. At full strength, the team does lack speed in the outside backs. Not really any noted fliers that can finish off long breaks.
• Biggest strength is our spine right now. Jack Wighton is reaching his peak, Hodgson is at his and CNK has been a revelation. If George Williams is solid, we have a spine capable of winning big games. Biggest weakness is going to be depth. Youngsters who should be learning the game and adding to the team depth are instead sitting out for long periods, such as Hudson Young and Scott. The fact we moved on some experienced players to make room for them leaves us now very light on quality depth.
Who is the player with the most pressure on them?
• George Williams. He’s an international coming into one of the most important positions on the field, replacing a guy who was solid without being spectacular and the expectations are he will be a major upgrade on that player and that upgrade can prove the difference between runners-up and winners. Next would be Josh Hodgson. He needs to be in the Cam Smith (declining) and Damien Cook conversation for Dally M Hooker of the Year. If he is consistently near his best, it’ll go a long way to helping ease the pressure on Williams.
(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)
Who is the rookie or the relatively unknown player to look out for?
• I don’t know much about him but the good judges here and around the club say Harley Smith-Shields. I think there is a very good chance he gets a shot in first grade early given the Curtis Scott situation. Emre Guler is another. I thought last year would be his breakout year, but he’s a guy I expect big things of. By season’s end I think he’ll be starting alongside Josh Papalii and being groomed as his successor as our middle forward pillar.
• I’m not sure if Bailey Simonsson counts but he showed his best football in the big games against the best teams last year. Hoping for him and Guler to establish themselves as first-grade regulars.
What would constitute a successful season? What would constitute a failure this year?
• You don’t play in a grand final and then lower the expectations the following year. Barring an injury crisis that cripples the chance, the expectations for a successful season are to win the premiership. Less than that will be seen as a failure.
• Winning the grand final equals success. Outside the top four equals failure.
Where will they finish this year?
• I honestly think they should finish again in the top four and be battling it out for a premiership. But the 21st Century history of this club says they can’t string together back-to-back seasons of success. There is real unease among the fans about this. I think this team specifically is built to buck that trend, and I think this coach has learnt a lot over his many years of success and a lot of failure. I think he’s found the balance between the players’ coach he was early in his coaching career and the angry miserable coach he was before coming home to Canberra.
• With this off-season, I’m leaning towards a slightly disappointing fifth or sixth place finish but a strong finals campaign leading to a preliminary final appearance. From there it’s anyone’s game.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
Harry they were the real deal last year. I thought they were the better side on the field in the GF but were robbed by blatant calls by officials. Very hard to beat the referees. The Roosters are Fake Premiers.
Taree Raider
Guest
All the Raiders have needed since Ricky Stuart left playing for the Raiders is a competent number 7. There was much hope when Ricky signed Seizer. Why Ricky couldn't make him into a world class halfback is beyond me. Who's fault was it, is Ricky really that bad of a judge of talent? Or is he just unable to coach halfbacks? But Ricky stuck wth Seizer to our detriment. Seizer didn't build pressure with tactical kicking, getting repeat sets or kicking into corners, 40/20's. Nothing. If Cooper Cronk was a Raider last year would the result/s have been? George Williams is exactly what the Raiders need. They also have the fallback of Sam Williams & Matt Frawley. Both of whom I'd rate higher than Seizer. Coming into 2017 the Raiders played a trial against Newcastle at Queanbeyan & were flogged. There were the usual excuses & Ricky's belief that defence is the key rather than attack. That worked with the squad he had. NOT. If we start the season poorly, heaven help us. It may be a long year. Cotric is a beauty, the biggest thing holding him back is the lack of opportunities given to him by Croaker. Move Cotric to right centre & get rid of Scott. I'm really looking forward to the season ahead. I am not worried about depth in the squad, here's hoping the George Williams can coach himself.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
He was a real handful a year or more back but he's settled down to being a touch average in attack. It seems a lot of players are underpaid early in their career but they get the big bucks when their best days are gone. Dugan , Boyd , Milford? , Foran, most Titans signings.
Walter White
Guest
I agree HY Bellamy doesn't release someone like that without a very good reason. We now know why.
Walter White
Guest
I don't think its so much what players they have lost or gained, I think that is pretty even, its more the fact that the Raiders won't be flying under the radar this year that will see them slip a little. I also think that the Raiders had a pretty good run of luck at crucial times last year (it happens and to all teams at different times) so they will need to lift a little just to over come that. On the positive side, I think last years ladder leaders have all slipped a little and they won't be as dominant. Souths might be the exception here. I also think Williams will prove to be a solid addition. Bottom line is, I think the Raiders will be outside the top 4 and won't make the big one.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Think he may have been playing centre in Jersey Flegg but imagine they would put him on the wing in first grade
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Thought Cotric really lucky to make the Australian team last October, 4 tries all year for a GF team winger is miserable, he hasn’t come on much in 3 years. Simonssen is currently the best winger/ three quarter in the club.
Nat
Roar Guru
HS-S, PotY from the wing? That's a solid effort even for jersey flegg. :thumbup:
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
He did - and made a good job of it too. If push came to shove in the Curtis Scott case the Raiders could do worse than put Cotric at right centre and have Harley Smith-Shields outside of him on the wing who was the Jersey Flegg player of the year. Might be time for Cotric to step up after three years on the wing. I think he is capable of it.
Nat
Roar Guru
I've alway thought Cotric was a center, didn't he come through the grades in that posi?
Harry
Guest
I don't think we've seen everything that CNK has to offer. He played five-eigth for the Storm under-20s so you'd have to think he has some play-making skills, and we did see a little bit of that last season. Let's not forget that last year he went from being a reserve player to playing the whole season, which must have been a huge test of his fitness. With a full season of first grade under his belt and also his first pre-season with the Raiders I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see his attacking game start to blossom. As for George Williams' role, by the end of last season Wighton was doing most of the kicking, and getting better at it with every game. Hodgson is one of the best organising hookers in the comp. I don't think the Raiders will necessarily need Williams to be the classic organising halfback - he showed in the few opportunities he was given for Great Britain at the end of last year that he has the potential to play head-up, spontaneous attacking football which is something the 2019 Raiders could have used. I think the balance in the spine will take a while to work out but it could work really well.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Yep ! I see the Raiders as having every chance of being Top 4 material again. I can't see that they have really lost anything from last year as I too think Rapana , Leilua & Sezer were on their last legs and some fresh blood was needed. They have a very good pack of forwards with good depth. They have a good amount of mongrel in their play ( coming out from England mainly) which drives the troops along. Josh Hodgson runs the pack around well , but needs a halfback to assist with stuff out wider. Jack at 6 is a good tough running half and strong defender but not really a man of vision creating for his outside backs. Similarly CNK at fullback . Tough as old bags and a good ball runner , but again no great creativity. The big query still is the lack of a ball playing half. George Williams , from what I have seen of him at Wigan & England is also a running 6, or even better set up as a centre , rather than a ball playing half, but we will see what Ricky can do with him ? Still they have enough class & experience to worry every team in the competition again in 2020.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Terrific comments from the Greenhouse and other regulars about the Raiders chances this year. I share the nervousness from some supporters about a potential fade out similar to 2017 following the prelim loss in 2016. But I don't think there is any way that the squad will go in complacent this season. They've felt the pain of a Grand Final loss and will be keen to make amends. I was very disappointed to see the club lose Jordan Rapana and BJ Leilua - two of my favourite players to watch - and probably less so with Aiden Sezer. There was a reason Ricky recruited George Williams - we needed more creative spark in attack - and if that means both George Williams and Jack Wighton having a crack at the line - so be it - bring it on. Teams will be wondering who to shut down. George appears to have a very good short kicking and passing game given the number of try assists he's been involved in - and Aiden Sezer never really excelled in this area. I can only see this switch as a positive but time will tell. Unfortunately George has had an injury for most of the pre season so may not have had much time to develop a partnership with Jack Wighton. And speaking of Jack - it is great for the club that he has signed for the next 4 years. Jack has the potential to get better and better. As Baz said earlier Jordan and BJ had pretty ordinary years in 2019 mainly due to injury but they have given fans so much joy and excitement over the years it was disappointing that they couldn't share a Grand Final win. But salary cap pressure forces clubs to make decisions that has one eye to the future as well as the present. The Curtis Scott incident has thrown a spanner in the works and it will be interesting to see how it all pans out. I'm sure he feels like a prize clown at the moment and once something has happened you can't change it. He'll just have to convince the playing group and the coaching staff that they won't see a repeat of that sort of behaviour. I suspect the club has no choice but to support him. If he gets hit with a lengthy suspension that will put a lot of pressure on players like Cotric, Oldfield and potential new starters such as Smith-Shields. I really like the look of their emerging forwards in Horsburgh, Guler and Hudson Young (if he can keep his hands to himself). You'd think the Raiders have too many good players not to be in the mix at the end of the season.
Paul
Roar Guru
I hope you're right Harry. I suspect if they win the lot this year, they could go on and win 2 or 3 more
Harry
Guest
I don't think there'll be any problem with belief this season. Raiders teams of the last decade have been mentally fragile - it's only taken a little bit going against them and they've fallen to pieces. Last year they showed all season that that wasn't an issue any more - just look at the way they fought their way back into the grand final after the trainer incident and then immediately letting in a soft try. After their grand final performance and two tough defeats of Melbourne in Melbourne last season they also know that they can mix it with the competition benchmarks. I'm excited about this season.
Paul
Roar Guru
I think the only two things that could stop the Raiders from winning the comp this year are injuries and belief. Injuries are obviously in the lap of the gods but I wonder if they truly believe they can win, having had a drought for so long and missing out as they did last year? Sides like the Roosters and the Storm have that belief. The Raiders certainly have the cattle, as long as they can keep them on the field and win the big key moments in the season, they'll be seriously hard to toss.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
I take no joy from this, but I think the Green Men peaked last season. I wish them a good year though. As for Scott, I don’t know what they were thinking. He might come to his senses at age 45 and reflect on what could have been.
Nat
Roar Guru
I share the same reservations about the Raiders having back-to-back successful seasons. No doubting their skill level and it was all on show last season. Can they maintain that very high individual and collective standard again? I will happily be proven wrong but I have my doubts. Still top 8 though.
Pete
Guest
Williams is the key for them IMO. I thought the reason they couldn't get past the Roosters last year was because they lacked a high quality halfback. From what I've seen of Williams he seems to be quite similar to Wighton which may be an issue. In saying that if he hits the ground running the Raiders are my premiership favourites.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
It's a pity the Raiders didn't make a GF with Rapana in full cry. He had that rare commodity to make a break from nothing and he was good enough at his peak to do it against the Chooks. Curtis Scott has come out and explained how he's not a bad person which must be a relief to the Raiders. Allegedly attacking two police officers , one of whom is a female , throws some doubt over his own thoughts. Would he admit to being violent and stupid based on past indiscretions? Getting shown the door from the Storm after failing to pull his head in at that club should have been a fairly decent sign that he had to change. In saying that I'd be happy for the Raiders to win the title but it would be much easier to cheer them on with Scott on the sidelines.