Over the past few weeks, Brisbane Roar have risen from the foot of the table to a relatively comfortable position as one of the top six competitors.
That has obviously been thanks to a strong run of form involving only one loss since the start of the year.
The signings of veterans Scott McDonald and Corey Brown have been played their part, though they are additional hurdles to jump for Brisbane’s talented crop of youngsters – their head coach Robbie Fowler might disagree with that statement, mind.
Although recent results suggest this is a team finally finding their feet, the underlying statistics indicate that their strong form is as much to do with luck as any improvement in their performances.
Ostensibly, their uplift has come from a solid defence, having only conceded five goals in their past seven matches. However, their expected goals conceded (xGA) numbers are not as pretty, with them having conceded 10.68 in those matches, a difference of more than five goals to their actual numbers.
This means Brisbane have given up plenty of quality chances, but have been somewhat fortunate to not actually concede from many of them.
If this were to continue, you would expect their defence to begin leaking goals eventually.
Fowler has shifted between a back four and a back five, but he finally seems to have decided to go with the latter. While it has allowed his wingbacks to attack more freely, it has meant that they can be sometimes be caught out in transition, especially on the flanks.
This is not to say this is a bad side or undeserving of praise, just that things are not as pretty as their recent results indicate.
Indeed, judging from the start of the season, Roar have been slightly unlucky themselves. They have only scored 19 goals when their xG predicts they should have something close to 24. Overall though, Brisbane are on course for the finals at their current rate of creating and conceding chances, with them currently ranked sixth on expected goals difference (xGD).
Reaching the finals would be no small feat either, given that Fowler inherited a mess of a side that barely looked capable of playing to an A-League standard last season.
The former Liverpool striker has garnered criticism for his signings, predominantly from the English lower leagues, but they have been the standout players of this season.
Jay O’Shea, for example, has proven to be one of the best midfielders in the league.
His creative force is immense, with an expected assists (xA) of 0.29 and just under three passes in the box every match ranking him in the top eight attacking midfielders and wingers in both those categories.
While he is a menace in the final third, he is also instrumental in the build-up play for Roar as he plays the most passes into the final third of any other attacking midfielder.
Elsewhere, the likes of Bradden Inman, Tom Aldred and Macaulay Gillesphey have proven to be good, if not great, players.
The exception perhaps is Aaron Amadi-Holloway, who has struggled to adjust and fallen well behind in the pecking order for the coveted striker position.
That is, of course, also impacted by the fact that Roar’s young forwards have stepped up to become a key attacking force.
Mirza Muratovic has been a decisive link between the midfield and forward with his intelligent play in between the lines dragging defenders out of position. The 20-year-old is a perfect foil for onrushing teammates, which Inman in particular has taken advantage of.
Dylan Wenzel-Halls has also been starting more in recent weeks after initially being chosen over the now departed Roy O’Donovan. He has only scored one goal so far this season, but with his eagerness to get on the ball and ability to find space in the box, it is only a matter of time before he starts scoring regularly.
The growth of the team in several individual positions, though, should not distract the coaching staff from the fact that there is still much work to do.
Fixing up the defence so that they stop conceding chances which will eventually lead to goals will be paramount in the run-in to the end of the season.
If they can get that right then the finals are there for the taking.
scouser4life
Roar Rookie
go the ginger beers Waz. A cracking profession.
scouser4life
Roar Rookie
i am keen to see how he adjusts and progresses, hopefully, next season.
TK
Roar Rookie
Not sure what happened to my previous reply – must have disappeared in the cloud so I’ll try and retype. I agree this article is about stats. Stats that the author is saying indicate that roar should have conceded more goals than they have. I believe Jamie Young, doing his job as you say is the primary reason behind this. My view is that it if you haven’t watched the games it would be very easy to look at the results of those last 9 games and presume that roar have an organised defensive unit. What I am saying is that Jamie Young has made some outstanding saves while doing his job during that period, often multiple times in a match, to deny the opposition when they had beaten the rest of our defensive unit. This has meant the GA and clean sheet numbers in isolation make it look like roar have a great defence but that hasn’t really been the case it has often been a one man show. For example, Jamie Young’s price in fantasy league has doubled in that nine game period, increasing each round except one. Conversely Tom Aldred’s price dropped every round in the first 6 rounds of the 9 you cite and has only started increasing again recently. I agree that over the last three games we have looked more organised in defence and the midfield are definitely less of a shambles too which has also helped. But over that nine game period on paper roars defensive unit as a whole appears much better than what it has been on grass.
TK
Roar Rookie
Exactly it is about stats and the article is saying the stats indicate roar should have conceded more goals than they have. I'm talking about a false sense of organisation - not security. What I'm saying is that if you weren't at the games watching what happened and how those scorelines occurred and only looked at the goals conceded figures you could easily be fooled into thinking Roar have enjoyed an organised defensive unit - but that just isn't true. In reality Jamie has been doing his job exceptionally well over that 9 game period (for example his fantasy league price has doubled in that nine game period increasing every game except one, whereas Aldred's price has dropped every round of the first 6 of the games you cited and has just started to climb again in the last three). In a number of those matches Jamie has pulled off some incredibly good saves - often multiple saves per game - to deny the opposition when they had beaten our defensive unit. There is no doubt the last three games we have looked much more organised and solid at the back (even though they have conceded 4) and the midfield is no longer the shambles it was either which has also helped - but I maintain that over that nine game stretch we have largely Jamie Young to thank for doing his job so well and minimising the number in our goals against column, and in my view making our defence during that period appear on paper to be better than it was on grass.
Waz
Roar Rookie
I had to double check the match stats: Adelaide took the lead in the 58th minute. Roar equalised in the 68th minute. So yeah, you led for “60 minutes” .... almost.
Waz
Roar Rookie
I don’t buy a player doing his job as a “false sense of security”. This is an article about stats - Roar have the third best defence for goals conceded and the second best defence for clean sheets kept But yeah .... other stats.
Football is Life
Roar Rookie
Got some players it just takes them longer to achieve both mental and physical synchronicity with the team
TK
Guest
I would say Jamie saved our bacon in quite a few of those games and gives a false sense of defensive organisation.
Waz
Roar Rookie
The game you lost. Which makes you second best.
Waz
Roar Rookie
Been there, done that. I’m not new to statistics or xG.
Waz
Roar Rookie
It has passionate fans for once - fans who stick by the club through thick n thin, fans who whinge and moan at the drop of a hat; fans quick to move a membership boycott when they feel like it. That’s Roar fans and clearly we find “that team” interesting. Why people like you are here commenting, who knows?
Shabab Hossain
Expert
I don't agree with you Waz, and xG is, as a matter of fact, one the best predictor of future results that we have at the moment, but I don't really have anymore to add. Can only urge you to do some reading on the topic. Perhaps this piece from Statsbomb, which talks about the pros and cons of xG: https://statsbomb.com/2018/05/the-dual-life-of-expected-goals-part-1/
Stevo
Roar Rookie
What in this world is so interesting about "that team"?
Kanggas2
Roar Rookie
Statistics play an important role in genetics. For instance, statistics prove that numbers of offspring is an inherited trait. If your parent didn't have any kids, odds are you won't either.
Kanggas2
Roar Rookie
Statistics is the art of never having to say you’re wrong. A statistician can have his head in an oven and his feet in ice, and he will say that on the average he feels fine. 43% of all statistics are worthless.
AndyAdelaide
Roar Rookie
Lol the game we were leading for nearly 60 odd minutes and then threw away with 2 sloppy goals?
Waz
Roar Rookie
It’s very simple: if you write about Brisbane Roar you’ll get lots of comments. People are interested in that team and comment, which draws others in who engage.
Waz
Roar Rookie
I think 2–1 says it all
Waz
Roar Rookie
Shabab, I’m a fan of xG/xGA even using a (very) crude version of it at Amateur level. But it’s not perfect, nor is it predictive if something is changed. Roars xG over the first few rounds was very high, over the next few rounds it fell as (presumably) Fowler looks to shut the back door. Now it’s staying fairly low, but results have improved. Things have changed and xG/xGA didn’t predict them. If xG/xGA were predictive .... Roar wouldn’t be on the run they are! I understand how xG is calculated but it remains imperfect - quality chance for a player who’s had a quiet game is not the same quality chance as (the same player, same chance) who has been harassed, kicked, verbally abused, and run ragged all afternoon ... and yet both get the same xG rating
Shabab Hossain
Expert
80 (now 81) of those are probably mine :laughing: