In the AFL more so than ever performance is judged in the context of a club’s age profile. Old teams are judged harshly and young teams are given more leeway.
However, discussion of age profiles is getting messy and use of overly simplistic and frequently misleading statistics is all too common. In particular, AFL media commentary is failing to recognise or at least convey that to establish a meaningful picture of a club’s true standing discussion of age profiles should be augmented by analysis of where within that profile quality resides.
In Part 1 of this five-part series a novel way of graphically representing exactly this is introduced, coined the Earlgram. Earlgrams are relatively straightforward, so don’t be deterred if you’re not statistically inclined.
The shape of the Earlgram is a histogram of player ages for the entire list. This is simply a count of how many players of each age there are on a list represented on the vertical axis, which are ordered on the horizontal axis from youngest on the left to oldest on the right. Player ages are as they will be at Round 1 of the 2020 season irrespective of a player’s birth date.
In addition, Earlgrams superimpose a colour scheme on these player age histograms based on different metrics that are intended to be proxies for each player’s value, which is obviously difficult to define.
Here 2020 team list age histograms are given a colour overlay that represents each player’s number of AFL games played in 2019, referred to as an AGP score. For players traded in, games played at their original club in 2019 is used and data is expressed as a percentage to standardise for finals participation.
Using senior exposure as a proxy for a player’s value means highly regarded youngsters aren’t appropriately valued in a real-world context. For example, all recent draftees are assigned scores of zero despite not even having the opportunity to be selected and despite some, like No. 1 pick Matthew Rowell, almost certain to be of AFL quality. However, speculation is avoided entirely by rewarding only player output to date.
Similarly, players that had injury-disrupted seasons in 2019 but are otherwise well-established in their team’s senior line-up are undervalued in AGP score. More sophisticated player valuation systems are explored further in Part 5 of this series.
Figure 1 plots all players on an AFL list in 2020, which is useful in demonstrating the AGP-Earlgram method and the AFL’s overall age profile. Nominally players with an AGP score of 75-100 per cent are considered senior players – that is, coloured red. Focussing on just these players, we see there is a normal distribution in age, with most regular senior players within the range of 22 to 28. The zero and 1-25 per cent groups skew younger owing to the AFL development system that drafts speculatively at a young age and develops while on the team roster.
Part 2 of this five-part series closely examines the club AGP-Earlgrams presented below and assesses which of the current ‘rebuilding’ lists have AGP-Earlgrams conducive to future success.
6x6 perkele
Roar Rookie
Still not a genius, do it with Melbourne and then I'll be impressed.
Waddster
Roar Rookie
Richmond had 37k members in 2010. He has overseen 6 finals appearances in 10 years almost tripled the membership, stayed with a coach that even i thought was gone helped get Neil Balme to return. All in an atmosphere that encourages diversity, moving us into a period of immense pride in our club. Helping develop great people on and off the field. And when i said he should take credit he said it was the team, not him. Simply the best.
Michael44
Roar Rookie
Just want to clarify the comment I made about Richmond being the first VFL club to crack the home game crowd average of 50,000 in 1980:- That wasn't meant to be a boast. Not that hard to be number one for home crowds in 1980 when your team won it, and only one other club had the MCG as it's home crowd. I said that to show that Richmond had to win the premiership in order to hit the 50,000 ave home attendance figure back in 1980. Far from a routine scenario that Essence was inferring even when Richmond were up the top,let alone when Richmond were down the ladder. For the record,according to AFL Tables Collingwood hold the record for the highest average home crowds and have the 2nd highest as well:- 2010 - 63256 2011 - 61488
Michael44
Roar Rookie
I had another comment that hasn't appeared so I'll write a summary here- Benny Gale had the courage to make public in early 2010 a 5 to 10 year plan as to where he and the club wanted the club to be come end of 2015 and end of 2020 (both on and off the field). Amidst the sniggers (some probably justified I know) Benny and Richmond held fast to their plan. They have one box yet to tick - 3 premierships by end of 2020. Even if they don't get to tick that last box off, Benny and Richmond have done a great job
Michael44
Roar Rookie
And also, after Benny arrived,the club's drafting was compromised substantially by the introduction of GWS and Gold Coast. Now,every club 's national drafting was compromised by their introduction,but,if we work on the premise that those clubs with the earlier first round picks are compromised the most, Richmond were affected the third most behind Adelaide and Port Adelaide.
Michael44
Roar Rookie
Or course it's not just Benny. Far from it. It's been a wonderful team effort. But,it was Benny who put the 10 year plan in place for Richmond in 2010. The Age Mar 2010 - Michael Gleeson - "The Tigers are determined to rouse the sleeping giant of football and their dormant fans through their plan, which carries a motto of 3-0-75. The motto stands for playing finals three times, having zero debt and signing 75,000 members within the next five years." In 2010, according to Jon Pierik in The Age in May 2016, Benny Gale is quoted as also saying in 2010 - Said Gale in 2010 in the Tigers document: "By 2020, we aspire to have won our 13th premiership; consistently provide the most exciting and powerful match-day experience in the competition; once again have the strongest support base in the nation, and enjoy the strongest emotional connection with our members and fans. Premiership success is part of our DNA as a club so on that basis it is fair to say that we have been unsuccessful over the last 30 years … as much as it hurts me to say it, the fact is we have been a collective failure." The Tigers didn't quite achieve the 5 year plan and are one short on premierships so far,but,if not genius, then very very good by Benny,and,talk about courageous. All the sniggering that went on after Benny's 2010 comments (understandable to a degree I know), but Benny was extremely courageous putting the plan out there. Wonderful job at at Richmond,and wonderful job Benny Gale. Just a great effort by Brendon so far.
Michael44
Roar Rookie
According to AFL TTables,in 2010 Richmond averaged 37452 for home games. In 2011, 42784. In 2012, 41319. In 2013, 50901. In 2014, 43196. In 2015, 49877. In 2016, 41155. In 2017, 55950. In 2018, 61175. In 2019, 59987.
Michael44
Roar Rookie
Benny Gale has done a fantastic job.
Michael44
Roar Rookie
From memory,Richmond did not used to average 50,000 for home games when near the bottom. They would get a 50,000 crowd every so often but not average 50,000. From memory,Richmond were the first club to average 50,000 for home games when they won it in 1980.
Eddie from Elwood
Roar Rookie
So if it's so easy for a big club, why were they in the wilderness for nigh on 40 years?
6x6 perkele
Roar Rookie
And my comment was gale isn't a genius as Richmond has advantages that would be the envy of other sides regarding fanbase and sponsorship possibilities that for a CEO it's not the great achievement he stated, do it with Melbourne or many other clubs then it would be ie what Simon Garlick achieved as CEO of the Bulldogs.
Eddie from Elwood
Roar Rookie
truetigerfan was commenting on the job Gale had done, Richmond were a complete basket case, as supporters are continually reminded of when they get lippy, before Gale arrived, regardless of the supporters base, what the CLUB is now is far more sustainable than what it was, and due to work done by him, as the leader, and others.
6x6 perkele
Roar Rookie
Not really, how big is Richmond's supporter and sponsorship base and always has been in comparison? Richmond being bottom 3 will get 50k for a home much match Melbourne lucky sometimes to get 15k, massive difference.
Eddie from Elwood
Roar Rookie
What? Richmond were no where near on the rise before Gale, stagnant at best. Not only that, it took the best part of ten years to get everything to click. Granted it not just Gale, but sheesh, he's a big part of it. Wow, and Richmond supporters are told they only look at the last 3 years.
Eddie from Elwood
Roar Rookie
Richmond were pretty much Melbourne!
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Cool, thanks. I thought as much.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
One thing that stands out is Burgoyne’s age. He is old.
Earl Chi
Roar Rookie
Effectively yes. I was just trying not to use too much maths terminology. In retrospect 'histogram with a colour superposition' is probably more confusing.
Earl Chi
Roar Rookie
yeah exactly, the AGP score values each player by their 2019 season. I started with this way of valuing players simply because the data is easily accessible. It means injuries have a strong influence so you’re not necessarily looking at a list at its very best. However, it is impartial, i.e. you’re not speculating on whether players will or won’t recover from injury. Tom Mitchell, Jon Patton, Joe Daniher etc are all valued at 0 in this system. In part 5 I look at other variables, and come up with a way of visualising teams at their best.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Hell to the yes! Love me some pre season footy. Even if Freo is still a week and a bit away from playing.