This season has been poor by Melbourne Victory’s lofty standards. More than two-thirds of the way through the campaign, they sit ninth with only five wins and 20 points.
Throughout the year, plenty of things have been blamed for the club’s fall.
First, it was Kristijan Dobras’ miserable stint, then, it was Marco Kurz’s tactical mishaps.
In recent weeks, after a long period of patience, there seems to be growing frustration at Elvis Kamsoba’s constant missed opportunities on goal.
Kamsoba has appeared in all but one of his team’s matches but is yet to be directly involved in a goal so far this season.
No goals or assists for someone playing in an attacking role is an abysmal return.
The underlying numbers, notably expected goals, suggest he’s been a tad unlucky, though.
With the number of chances he’s taken shots from, he’d be reasonably expected to score twice. That’s obviously not a massive return, but it does suggest he is worth more than his current tally.
The idea that Kamsoba misses clear-cut chances regularly is a bit harsh too. The shots he’s taken in the clips above might look easy at first, but when you watch it a few times you notice that they he’s not necessarily a poor finisher.
There are some where the angle is tight even when he’s one on one with the keeper, or with there being multiple defenders in the way when he is shooting.
Even with these apparent shooting deficiencies, Kamsoba has been regularly picked by all three of his head coaches since joining early last year.
The reason might be that his strengths are elsewhere, which make him a valuable asset even if he’s not putting away those shots.
This season, while Kamsoba might not have an assist to his name, he is averaging about 1.2 shot assists per game – that is the pass before a shot.
Given his technical ability to drive at his opposition and dribble past them, especially when against isolated full-backs, he regularly produces delicious cut-backs for his teammates to feast on.
Unfortunately, this season has been one where a lot of Victory’s players have been misfiring, but some of the most glaring misses have started from the good work of Kamsoba.
This is once again reflected in the numbers, with the Burundi international’s expected assists suggesting he should have around three assists this season.
Not only can he put his opponents on the backfoot, but Kamsoba does seem to have a knack of finding his teammates free, without any pressure from nearby defenders.
That they have yet to put away any of the chances he’s created should not take away the fact that he is creating clear cut opportunities for his team.
It’s largely agreed upon that, in the modern game, full-backs must also be attacking players when in position.
Increasingly, we are also seeing wingers required to track back and contribute defensively, too.
Perhaps because he is aware that he could be dropped at any moment, Kamsoba is a hard worker without the ball. He participates aggressively when his team presses, and also has the awareness to make tackles and look for interceptions at the right time.
Given Andrew Nabbout and the now-injured Robbie Kruse are on the lower end of the defensive spectrum, it makes it even more imperative that you have a forward who is willing to do the dirty work.
The horrendous mess that is Victory’s midfield has also harmed Kamsoba’s ability to play his natural game. His high number of dribbles completed would work well in a high-tempo team with quick passes and interchange helping him to beat his man, but that hasn’t been the case this season as Carlos Perez Salvachua still searches for the best partnerships in the middle of the park.
It’s also worth remembering that this is the 23-year-old’s first full season at the professional level. The step up from the National Premier Leagues (NPL) to the A-League is a difficult one.
Aside from the obvious lift in quality, it is also simply a change in lifestyle with full-time football that requires time to adapt. Kamsoba has shown enough that he is worth persisting with for at least another season.
There are rumours that next season’s newest addition, Macarthur FC, are looking at signing Kamsoba for their first year.
While it might seem like an easy decision to let him go, he could well show his full potential in the new team from Sydney and leave Victory fans wondering ‘what if?’.
Mayko forgets
Guest
Yep. I think it's worth holding on to him. The team has been a shambles this season, and it's not as though he's been lacklustre in an otherwise performing team, on the contrary, he's been consistent in an extremely underwhelming team. I suppose with Kamsoba, he should be looked at a bit like the perspective with Kurz initially, that if he could produce what he produced with Adelaide with their deficiencies, then imagine what he could do at Victory. Well, we all know how that turned out, but I think with Kamsoba, if he had at least one quality attacking midfielder who presented, had a decent first touch, was able to bounce the ball off, and lay off through balls or slide rule passes, Kamsoba would have a lot more weight off his shoulders, and be able to produce finishes with clearer opportunities, and assists with more capable players. Ola is capable, yes, but there is no-one else draw that one or two extra players away from him. There is no second guessing in opposition defences this season, they know all they have to do is put bodies between the ball carrier (Nabbout or Kamsoba) and the finisher (Ola) and that will cut out the majority of Victory attacks from either side. Victory with any combination of Nabbout, Ola, Kruse, Rojas or Kamsoba & a decent attacking midfielder will rip teams to shreds. The consistent failures of Victory this season aren't on the shoulders of any of our attacking players, and certainly not on the easiest one to target, Kamsoba. It's on recruitment, and a lack of a genuine 10.
MarkfromCroydon
Roar Pro
I agree with you Shabab. I think Elvis deserves his spot in the team at the moment. He is working hard and just needs a change of luck, and maybe a little more confidence.
Para+Ten ISUZU Subway support Australian Football
Roar Rookie
"He’s an enigma at the moment. That’s about the only certainty." Totally agree with you there. :thumbup:
Waz
Roar Rookie
To be honest I don’t see that but maybe I’m not watching as keenly as you are. He’s an enigma at the moment. That’s about the only certainty.
At work
Roar Rookie
I’d take Kambosa at Sydney, he’s an anomaly among Australian players in that he isn’t afraid to actually take a man on. Too many local players when driving into an attacking position will stop and kill the momentum because there’s a player in front of them. We’ll just pass it around but never get anywhere. It’s quite refreshing seeing Elvis do it quite well. Good luck to him and I hope he starts to actually produce goals and assists as his career progresses. I’d hate to see him get caste off for a boring and technically limited player that would rather pass instead of beat a man.
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Waz - I've watched all of MV matches this year, HAL and ACL and I have witnessed a lot of his cut backs through balls and passes that were very good chances in my view, but the player on the receiving end either over runs the ball or poor first touch to connect with them. Those sort of chances are not recorded on stats, but you can't deny the good work he does creating those sorts of opportunities.
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— COMMENT DELETED — entered in wrong thread.
Waz
Roar Rookie
“ He has definitely set up a lot of scoring chances” In an article that’s all about his statistics I’d like to see that statement backed up by facts. Watching him week to week it doesn’t ring true to me, so what do the stats say?
Kanggas2
Roar Rookie
Good points will Second division. Let’s see it happening. Will be excellent to see lots of good young Aussies getting regular games , should be 30 plus games a season imo .
Shabab Hossain
Expert
Athiu is an interesting one. Gets into good positions but can't finish. I think he's another one that's OK as a squad player. Can't have a team filled with superstars, especially with the cap.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
Completely agree Will.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
I think he's mainly started because of Victory's injury troubles. Either Kruse or Nabbout has been injured almost always, and the introduction of Rojas would almost definitely mean that Kamsoba is a squad player that is filling in for the injuries of those forwards ahead of him.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
I agree that it's easy to finger pick stats to find ones that suit your argument but I try my best to provide a holistic view of players through their numbers, perhaps I sometimes fail to do that. I think stats provide a different picture than our own perception as they aren't filled with bias. Adam's numbers might not be high but that's understandable for someone that's still a teenager, but if there are positive signs there they could suggest he has potential. Certainly doesn't take into account some of those intangibles you mentioned, but there are other things that stats might notice that we don't. It shouldn't be one or the other -- Stats and our own perception need to marry well if we are to develop an informed opinion.
Mark
Guest
That’s the point I’ve made repeatedly. The fact he has started so many games says everything about the decline in quality of the Victory squad this season.
Adri
Roar Rookie
I do agree with your kamsoba ideas, even though he hasn't scored he's worth perceivering with. Whats your opinion on kenny athiu, been around for a while now prolific scorer in the Victorian leagues but can't buy a goal in the a league... It's beyond a joke now why is he still on the list?
Nemesis
Guest
You've recently transformed into a pest & a social media stalker. Now you're exposing yourself as a football illiterate. Only a football illiterate would suggest Kenny Athiu possesses any of the technical qualities I outlined for Kamsoba.
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Roar Rookie
Fad - Yes, it could kill him---but I what a way to go demonstrating with the fourth official on the sideline. :stoked:
Fadida
Roar Rookie
Great points Will
Fadida
Roar Rookie
MV are insane if that's the case
Fadida
Roar Rookie
I'm sure you used a similar argument for Athiu