The Lance Franklin era is either winding down or already over in Sydney – depending on who you ask.
With four premiership heroes retiring at the end of last season – their first non-appearance in the finals since 2009 – it looks like a new era has begun in earnest for the Swans.
They started 2020 on a good note, dominating Adelaide for stretches before barely surviving a last-quarter rally to win by three points.
Here are four burning questions for Sydney coming into Round 2.
1. What’s the plan without Buddy?
The Swans caught a lucky break initially with season postponement, as it meant Franklin’s ten-week layoff following knee surgery would only see him miss one game.
But he suffered a huge setback recently, injuring his hamstring at training, and now looks to be out of action for at least three months.
His importance to Sydney’s forward set-up is plainly obvious. He’d led the club goal-kicking every year since joining from Hawthorn until last year’s injuries saw him just play ten games.
As a result, the Swans posted their lowest total score for a season since 1968.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. Tom Papley had a career year with 37 goals and was convinced to stay despite requesting a trade to Carlton. Still only 23, he could be a small forward worth building around if they can keep him. Sam Reid is still around too, but like his brother, has a long injury history.
As far as replacement talls go, Nick Blakey had a fine debut season, netting 19 goals in 21 matches, while Tom McCartin already has 35 games under his belt despite turning 20 in December.
It’s a work in progress but alongside promising youngsters Will Hayward and Ben Ronke, the Swans have the nucleus of a pretty potent forward line already. There’s no time like the present to pump games into them.
It’s time to start planning for life without Buddy. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
2. Who replaces our retired stars?
The Swans lost 1048 games of experience when premiership quartet Jarrad McVeigh, Kieren Jack, Heath Grundy and Nick Smith retired at the end of 2019 – and they’ll take some replacing.
In his prime, Jack was a superb hybrid midfielder capable of playing at the coalface or on the outside, McVeigh’s experience and ball use coming out of defence was excellent, while Grundy and Smith were some of the best lockdown defenders going around.
I disagree with the notion that their retirements will see the Swans plummet in 2020, as they only played a combined 15 games last season.
But that doesn’t change the fact they’ll need to find long-term replacements soon.
Down back, Dane Rampe is obviously the first-choice key defender, but at 30, won’t be around forever. Highly-rated 23-year-old Lewis Melican will fill one pair of shoes, but Aliir Aliir is a lot better as a Josh Gibson-esque third tall than a pure one-on-one player. Kaiden Brand could end up being a bargain, but you’d want to see something more promising from a youngster.
There’s no obvious replacement for Smith, with the club’s cohort of small and medium-sized defenders all priding themselves on speed. You have to wonder how valuable a shutdown small defender is in today’s game anyway.
George Hewett is probably the most similar player to Jack on the list right now, but doesn’t have the same pace and is probably going to end up more akin to Josh Kennedy or Luke Parker.
3. Is it still worth going after Joe Daniher next season?
No.
4. Will we really be as bad as everyone says we’ll be?
This is a tough one. On one hand, the Swans finished in the bottom four last season, have lost a lot of experience and their contemporaries look to have improved over the off-season more than they have.
Where will John Longmire’s side finish in 2020? (AAP Image/Joel Carrett)
On the other hand, they had the highest percentage for a bottom-four team of the AFL era, were in the thick of the finals race until Round 15, lost Buddy and their only ruckman and then lost six games in a row – four by ten points or fewer – to fall away.
This is a team that crushed West Coast and lost to Carlton at the same venue.
Despite being a popular pick for the bottom four – or even a wooden spoon smokey – I think the Swans are a lot harder to predict in 2020 and could surprise people.
In the midfield, they’ve still got Kennedy and Parker to hold down the fort, with the aforementioned Hewett blossoming into a key player. Ryan Clarke had a very disappointing first season in red and white, but at 22, has oodles of time to find his footing. Sam Naismith in the ruck made them look a whole lot better in the clearances in Round 1 and could free Callum Sinclair to play forward more often too.
I’ve covered the forward line in-depth already and the defence is a bit of a worry – although they’ve still got Jake Lloyd and Callum Mills delivering the ball – but the Swans could very well end up being a ninth to 12th kinda side this season.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
No chance of drawing JC to the Swans. The GWS club has evolved with fierce rivalry to the Swans. The only chance of JC leaving GWS in the future is to return to his home state. E.g. if Tom Hawkins retires & Geelong comes to him with an open cheque book with a side in the premiership window.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
RD, I am a Hawks man that lives in Sydney. Buddy's tenure at the Swans is going to be far greater than just the club's high end finishes. Many young Swans fans have been totally inspired by his on field exploits. He has drawn crowds to the SCG. The excitement he has provided them will sure up fans future allegiance to the club.
Kurt
Guest
It's still a variation of the 2012 plan: slingshot footy with big inside mids to creative half-backs who pump the ball forward. As the team has gotten younger, it has proven a bit less effective but when the plan works it does account for us randomly blowing a West Coast or similar good team out of the water. More of that same inconsistency in 2020 for mine.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
The buddy deal was always a massive risk to the Swans and sadly those risks are being released. It will be a shame if Buddy can't get to 1000 goals. Still eminently achievable with 2 years left on the contract but father time may have other ideas. As for the pursual of Danniher I wholeheartedly agree with Question 3. It frankly defied believe what the Swans were prepared to offer for him last year. Adrian Dodoro saved them from their own stupidity.
mbp
Guest
horse has shown himself to have one game plan and a inability to adapt. swans should have lunch with james herd from essendon this weekend.... or steal from hawthorn again.... but this time their coach. but be careful swannies.... if you start to look too good in the near future the afl will handbrake you and take away some draft picks...!
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
PTS, Sydney are in transition. They are are a strong financial club & have the great advantage of attracting players that don't enjoy the over attention of stardom in Melbourne. E.g. Tony Lockett & Buddy Franklin. Plenty of young players could enjoy the opportunity & glamour of travelling to Sydney to play they game they love. The club will have no trouble keeping the right players. The greatest challenge for the club is selecting the right lineup within the boundaries of the salary cap as they are now are on an even keel. They are not going to go decades without premiership success. AFL has come along way here in Sydney over the last 20 years. My nephews are Swans diehards. They haven't replicated their uncle's lifelong allegience to Hawthorn. So they wont be receiving any financial benefits from my last will & estates.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
That and the Swans have a considerably better record on injury management
Mooty
Roar Rookie
You’re right about the pressure. I remember leading up to his first senior game the media were already using the term potential champion, and when he finally kicked a goal the crowd and the commentators were going berserk. Don’t think he got another that night. Might have got injured.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Well I mean osteitis pubis did his older brother in too, though Darcy Daniher never had as much pressure on him as joe Daniher.
big four sticks
Guest
With a cat as an avatar, how do you come to the conclusion that Yattuzzi is a Collingwood fan? We all know Yattuzzi is a Geelong diehard.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
So, you'd not credit Horse for any success (of which Sydney has had much) but anything problematical is his "game plan". One or two holes in that argument, Chucky.
Nick
Roar Guru
Nonsense. Look at the list - 85% of those players came to Sydney in the Longmire era. The "player culture" existed long before Roos.
Nick
Roar Guru
Really? Your window is closing... I would have thought Cameron would have wanted to snag a flag in his career.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
He’s coming to the Pies Richie
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
He’s been the head coach at Sydney since 2011 and was an assistant before that. It is not so much the coaching of John Longmire that is responsible for Sydney’s positioning but the creative and careful scouting of draft picks and the improvement of player culture that occurred under Roos.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
I think the swans will struggle to pull Jeremy Cameron over simply because they still have buddy on their list for three more years and they’re probably gonna be looking at paying Cameron the same. The other issue is Cameron is likes clean disposal into the forward line and the swans are not good by foot
Shucker
Guest
Injury prone players dont play 300 games!
RT
Roar Rookie
They should try to entice Jeremy Cameron to cross over.
Mooty
Roar Rookie
Thoroughbred wow that’s a new one. He comes from excellent breeding, but that doesn’t make him a thoroughbred. Sounds like you might be a Collingwood type supporter
CD
Roar Rookie
Buddy and Reid are injury prone key forwards- I agree that picking up Daniher next year could just be rinse and repeat. I don’t care how talented you are - if you are watching on from the injury rooms your capacity to be a match winner = zero percent. As a Swans fan I hope we look for a different approach that goes beyond trying to buy in a star full forward (or at least if we do, let’s target someone else who is a better prospect of getting on to the park in 2021). Daniher doesn’t seem to have been physically right for quite some time