Canberra fans took away plenty from Saturday’s nail-biting loss to Parramatta, most notably a haunting sense of existential dread.
The 25-24 golden point slump was not like any other routine painful defeat, it sent a message that the Raiders are back – but not in a promising sense, more like how one goes back to reserve grade or living with parents.
After seeing off their demons last year with an emotional charge to the grand final, Canberra are displaying concerning signs they are reverting back to life as an enigma so frenetic it could make Prince Andrew sweat.
Corey Horsburgh’s tears at Bankwest Stadium were not for injury or the cruel taunts of cardboard, but for the emotion of contemplating a return to Jarrod Croker missed penalties, James Tedesco refusals and Joel Monaghan non-refusals.
Make no mistake, a Raiders relapse would be as disastrous as the new pig flu set to sweep the world post-COVID. Rejuvenated fans emerging from the darkness would be re-encased for another infinity, spending their days crying in to their last three squares of toilet paper as they withdraw from close family like Big Papa.
(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
The Green Machine began the season in barnstorming fashion with three straight wins headed by new English import George Williams, the man signed by coach Ricky Stuart to maintain the club’s official status as the fourth state of Great Britain.
The side looked set to cement its chops as a premiership heavyweight, leaving behind forlorn comebacks and inexplicable meltdowns for a life winning games it was intended to win and losing purely due to skill deficit and/or Ben Cummins.
But after two losses and a misfiring attack, rightly paranoid Canberra fans could be seriously considering minimising the pain using Trump’s coronavirus strategies, i.e. by watching fewer games for fewer cases, or by contracting coronavirus.
So why have the Raiders lost their mojo forever? Should club memberships still come with an opt-out and Novocain?
Experts believe the recession could be down to one of three issues: the ongoing saga surrounding the departure of John Bateman, too much time spent in Campbelltown, or Curtis Scott. But for the purposes of this piece, let’s just blame the coach.
Across the years, Stuart-coached sides have suffered a sharp decline in performance following periods of widespread acclaim, much like a classic pump-and-dump securities fraud, except with people’s feelings.
(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
It’s an old man’s bastardisation of second-year syndrome, the infamous concept in pro sports where dominant first-year rookies fall off the precipice because everyone decrypts their modus operandi, and/or they sign with the Gold Coast for a million bucks.
In Stuart’s case, he can deliver an encouraging window of success – one seemingly promising long-term health and stability – only to follow it up with a daunting cliff face marked with jagged rancour and overhead projectors.
For example, Canberra’s 2016 preliminary final season was backed up with a totally on-brand finish of tenth, while his 2008 top-four finish at Cronulla was trailed by a 15th-place finish involving a sex scandal, a drugs fiasco, financial woes and a sacked CEO, a year famously referred to as a standard Cronulla season.
Then 2013 saw Parramatta deliver a particularly strong example of Stuart’s second-year syndrome, with his decline so extreme there was no second year, nor any success. Thankfully he was able to save face by leaving on amicable terms, and by sacking a raft of players via a PowerPoint presentation.
There are outliers, of course. He enjoyed a healthy stint as Kangaroos coach, plus guided the Roosters to three consecutive grand finals before being sacked in 2006.
But of course, nobody can fail to deliver four consecutive deciders at Easts and expect to survive.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
I would take a few. Apparently they lack finesse but have bodies like rock and hit like sledge hammers. I'd put a couple in the back row. Not going to set up tries or that stuff but they'll leave a few 'toughs' in the dirt and nobody will want to run at them.
Micko
Roar Rookie
Why don't any teams (like Cowboys etc) recruit PNG players? Are they genuinely poor or what?
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Now there’s a thought. I actually used to think that they’d have the pick of most of the Polynesian Islands, but of course Auckland may be just too cold for most Islanders
Micko
Roar Rookie
Pretty inspired recruiting. Makes you wonder why the Warriors don't get some top pommy players to go there??
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
If there was better officiating, they would likely have won that Grand Final.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Yep, he figured out only Englishmen could live in that Canberra climate...
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
:shocked: You two need to get a room...
Clint
Guest
Bout time you did a serious article Eldridge, oh are you any relation to the late great GE of ADB fame?
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Spot on Baz - Rickly can be a prickly dude so I can understand people not liking him - and if I'm honest I'd probably prefer to listen to Trent Robinson talking about his team given his intelligence and eloquence. Ricky is a bit more basic and no Rhodes scholar but you can't question his commitment and passion for the Raiders. His ability to assemble a quality squad is unquestioned and I'm not sure too many others would have capable of that at the Raiders given their decades of mediocrity. Its Stuart's pulling power that got them there. And he's managed to completely revamp their game plan. A one dimensional coach wouldn't have been able to achieve that. The Raiders probably dodged a bullet when they missed out on Proctor and if it wasn't for our mate Robbie Farah would have landed Tedesco - instead Teddy wasted a few more fruitless years at the Tigers with a steady stream of losses and injuries. Mick Ennis also game them the flick but is now back there as a coaching consultant and Ricky unsuccessfully courted JWH and Mansour. That all changed when he focused om quality Poms. Ricky is a good coach but he won't be a great coach until he gets a couple more premierships.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Definitely and he’s clearly got a great eye for talent. He tried to get in Tedesco and Proctor who both back flipped, then came up with a different recruitment strategy None of the players he’s brought in were shooting the lights out at their previous clubs and a lot of his signings and tactics are inspired I can understand people nor liking him. But I think people tend to confuse their personal opinion with an assessment of his ability and career
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Still gnawing on that bone WB? You still think the Storm would have beaten the Raiders in that final last year don't you with the Vunivalu grazing the sideline decision. You're deluded. Why don't you just fess up that the Storm weren't good enough.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Precisely – Stuart recruited Austin, Sezer, Paulo, BJ Leilua, Whitehead and Hodgson that formed the basis of an attacking brand of footy that took them to a prelim in 2016 – and were only a held pass away from making the GF. Then followed two years of mediocrity and a squad rebuild with the letting go of the behomeths Boyd and Paulo and the flaky but predictable brilliance of Austin – and a complete change of game plan with a brutal defensive focus – left field recruitment of CNK, addition of John Bateamn and shifting of Jack Wighton to 5/8 which culminated in a GF appearance. I’d say the bloke can coach.
Rellum
Roar Guru
I would sticky over Seibold in a heart beat.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Gould inherited a roster from Warren Ryan and one from Tim Sheens - has almost unlimited budget with the Roosters during and after the super league war and didn’t win anything I don’t really believe that by the way, just demonstrating that you can say the old “they inherited...” about anyone if you try Stuart changed the way the Roosters played. He achieved a crazy good result with Cronulla in 2008 when they finished =1st with Melbourne and Manly with a roster that had blokes like Brett Kearney, Seymour. Simmons, Pomeroy - a bunch of no names He back doored Parra but you can’t argue that the Raiders aren’t a lot better than they were when he started. He’s completely rebuilt their roster from bits and pieces players and relatively unknown imports
Zak
Roar Rookie
TB, Gould won competitions as a coach with Penrith AND Canterbury. Sticky won a premiership as a coach in his first year of coaching and nil premierships since. Robinson has continually refreshed and evolved his roosters team to win multiple premierships since he first won one. Since he won his first premiership as a coach has Sticky proven that he can refresh and evolve his rosters to improve and make the next step to win more NRL titles??????
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
He's also coached more losses than wins at NRL level though. The Roosters were the only club that he coached to a winning record during his time.
Ralph Malph
Roar Rookie
Stuart has Taken the Roosters to three Grand Finals and Canberra to one. He has also taken Cronulla and Canberra to preliminary finals. A proven champ.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Graham Murray But where do you stop with that... ? Gould built the squad that Murray inherited, so should he get the credit for the team he built for Murray to hand over to Stuart to win a premiership? The flip side is that Gould couldn’t make a grand final, Murray couldn’t win one and Stuart made three and won one in his first three years. Is it really credible that Murray or Gould couldn’t win comps when they were coaches but they somehow get the credit when they’re not? Stuart came up with the Roosters defensive style in 2002 and shifted Craig Wing to halfback that was pretty key to them turning their season around and winning the comp Do we discount Trent Robinson’s premiership he won in his first season because he inherited a squad from someone else? How long do you need to have a squad before the premiership is yours and not your predecessors?
mephisto
Guest
Didnt blame John Bateman, blamed the player agent for doing the best for his client. What! Ricky likes to deflect but is not a master
Zak
Roar Rookie
Mark Murray built up the Roosters team that Stuart inherited. Stuart was the beneficiary of Murray’s work. Don’t forget Stuart lost the “un-losable” World Cup final with the Kangaroos.