In most job interviews, confessing you have no experience is the worst thing you can say.
But if you’re interviewing for an NRL coaching gig, it might just be the smartest.
That’s because for the last decade every single premiership has been won by a coach in his maiden first-grade post.
Trent Robinson (2013, 2018, 2019), Craig Bellamy (2012, 2017), Shane Flanagan (2016), Paul Green (2015), Michael Maguire (2014) and Des Hasler (2011) were all first-timers when they took the reins of the clubs they eventually steered to the silverware.
You have to go back to Wayne Bennett in 2010 to find a recycled coach who got his hands on the Provan-Summons Trophy.
Looking over rugby league’s fence, the trend coincidentally repeats in the AFL (Mick Malthouse in 2010 was the last second-club coach to win a flag) and Super Rugby (Ewen McKenzie in 2011).
The point is that reprocessed coaches don’t appear to win trophies in modern footy codes, including rugby league.
Which is one of many reasons why the Dragons’ recruitment of Anthony Griffin is so baffling.
(Photo: Mark Evans/Getty Images)
Griffin’s 55 per cent winning percentage is well below what his richly talented Brisbane and Penrith rosters were entitled to achieve.
But the bigger problem is that it’s rare for any coach to win a competition at his second club, and it’s even rarer if they went trophy-less at their first one.
Only four recycled coaches – Bennett, Chris Anderson (Storm, 1999), John Lang (Panthers, 2003) and Tim Sheens (Tigers, 2005) – have claimed premierships in the NRL era.
Lang is the only boss to win his first NRL title at his second club, meaning Griffin would make some serious history if he managed to win his maiden crown at his third.
That said, ironically the man Griffin replaced at Penrith, Ivan Cleary, is now in a strong position to end first-club coaches’ nine-year stranglehold on the premiership.
The six mentors who’ve won those last nine titles all look very different.
Bellamy and Robinson sit in the mastercoach category, Hasler and Flanagan oversaw top-to-tail club rebuilds, while Green and Maguire gave strong sides the impetus they needed to get over the line.
None of them look like twice-sacked Anthony Griffin.
They could, however, look like Justin Holbrook.
The Gold Coast re-signed their rookie boss until the end of 2024 last month, going all-in on someone who’d only coached four NRL wins before inking that extension.
That potentially premature move raised some eyebrows, but it’s a smarter strategy than pulling an experienced mentor out of the recycling bin.
To be clear, I’m not arguing Holbrook will definitely take the Titans to an unlikely premiership. I’m arguing he’s a better bet than Griffin at St George Illawarra or another reprocessed boss at another club.
In short, coaches who’ve been sacked don’t hoist trophies. Coaches like Holbrook sometimes do.
If you’re in the market for premierships, you’re better off taking a punt on an untried assistant rather than inviting some bloke to have his second or third bite of the cherry.
Newcastle were smart to trade in Nathan Brown for Adam O’Brien. The Warriors were less smart to hand Brown his third NRL gig (although it’s hardly the dumbest coaching decision that club has made).
The same logic suggests that Todd Payten is a better appointment at North Queensland than Trent Barrett is at Canterbury if you accept Payten’s impressive interim stint with the Warriors this season doesn’t really count as his first full-time NRL gig in the same way that Barrett’s bitter three years at Brookvale does.
That’s not to say recycled coaches can’t win lots of games or take teams to finals. Nor is it to say that every first-timer is a guaranteed success – Paul McGregor and Dean Pay were both sacked this season, as was Paul Green, despite contributing to first-club coaches’ decade-long grip on the silverware.
The club names engraved on the Provan-Summons Trophy do, however, confirm that recycled coaches don’t taste the ultimate success. First-timers do.
Holbrook isn’t guaranteed to become a premiership winner. But if recent history is anything to go by, Griffin is guaranteed not to be.
Dexter The Hamster
Roar Rookie
Just about the stupidest thing I have read on the Roar in recent times. Give me a spell.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
drawn a conclusion, then cherry picked a number of stats, while ignoring a whole heap of relevant stats, to back up that conclusion. It’s not how it is supposed to work..agrees, but LOL.. actually, a lot of science is done that way these days.. Evolution theory for one amongst others...
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
There's a lesson there somewhere about merging clubs... along with the dead 'Northern Eagles'
Dexter The Hamster
Roar Rookie
In science you assemble the facts and draw a conclusion. This article has drawn a conclusion, then cherry picked a number of stats, while ignoring a whole heap of relevant stats, to back up that conclusion. It's not how it is supposed to work.
mushi
Roar Guru
Stats aren't bogus in the sense they're just data. The meaning attempting to be conveyed is vacuous. The "analysis " insipid. Did the author look at how many first club coaches had failed in the same period. Using a premiership as the test point on created a small sample. Anyone thinking this is statistical proof of a guarantee, as hyperbolically asserted, is off the reservation
Max power
Guest
We have picked a guy who everyone at the panthers couldn’t stand and held them back for years Fail - stats are not bogus
Max power
Guest
A whole bunch of stats that make sense You lost a one off possible stat as a counter argument
Max power
Guest
He’s got a proven track record of getting sacked and not getting the most of talented teams
Andrew
Roar Pro
This entire article is bogus. Completely misses the point. Griffin is an inspired choice. He’ll either get us across the line or will get us to the precipice, then a successor will get us there in ‘24 or ‘25 Similar to Nathan Brown got us competitive, assembled the team & Bennett added some finishing touches and got us across the line. What’s the alternative? Stick with McLosser for another year? FFS Why do people insist on focusing on negatives when all Ssints fans should be happy
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
When Ben Hunt started kicking the ball into touch , i knew the game was ours. I yelled at my mate , We got this , we got this.!!! I didn't think it would take quite so long to actually get it though.
up in the north
Roar Rookie
If you consider the Broncos began trying to shut the game down with kicking the ball dead with 20 mins left, as the last few seconds, then sure. The Cowbies wanted it more. That's not a reflection on Bennett but one the players need to own
mushi
Roar Guru
Correlations are all good but if you need to create some credible causation. Until last year there wa more data saying it was “impossible” for a reigning premier to win the comp. Often a new coach gets more leeway in roster construction and time frame than the old and less expectation. And once you’ve started winning... why would that coach change as they’ve got to rebuild a new roster. If you look at when people take on an “old” coach they expect a quicker turn around/results but also have a roster that got the old coach fired. I’d suggest that’s a bigger issue than the coach being a retread. I also don’t put a lot of faith in the measuring success for a profession like coaching, which is about getting consistency of execution/processes/culture, with the randomness of single game results.
Paul
Roar Guru
it also means that there are, at most, only 2 or 3 coaches who could realistically win this year's premiership.... or any other's year's for that matter.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I've commented before on this issue when I hear punters declare that the answer to a struggling clubs woes is to throw whatever it takes at Robinson or Bellamy to get them on board. While it sounds great in theory , history isn't that kind to title winning coaches doing great things at other clubs in comparison to rookies. The idea that it's riskier to hire a rookie is a fallacy , history proves it.
Paul
Roar Guru
There's also a piece of history that says no-one who has coached more than 300 games without winning a premiership, will ever do so. I guess that puts the kybosh on Penrith's chances this year! :happy:
Paul
Roar Guru
4 coaches who are not first timers have won premierships Barry. As we've discussed in recent weeks, a coach is only one component that needs to be right. A strong and stable Board, a strong squad, good recruitment & retention are all factors as well.
Paul
Roar Guru
Sorry, but I fail to see the point you're making. According to this piece, 6 first time coaches have won premierships in recent times versus 4 coaches who were not first time coaches. How does this make a "streak that says Griffin will be a disaster for the Dragons"? If the Dragons DO win a title under his tenure, that would make the numbers 6 first timers and 5 not first timers. That to me is neither here nor there, as is the premise you've created.
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
As someone who's never coached before, I'm willing to put my hand up to coach the Dragons.
Landcruiser79
Guest
Do the same study over the last 50 yrs , and I bet you get a different result. Robbo and Bellamy are both freaks , so I wouldn’t read too much into the last ten years .
Noosa Duck
Roar Rookie
Dunno about Craig Fitzgibbon not wanting to leave Easts to take on the job at St George. I reckon he had a long chat to both Robbo & Uncle Nick about it and came to the conclusion that the club is not being run well enough to make it worthwhile. Yes he did give his word and I admire that but you can bet the conversation took place for they are a very close knit team.If he had wanted the job he would have gone with the best wishes of both Robinson & Politis, better judgement told him it was not worth it. Both Fitzgibbon & Jason taylor are also well paid in their jobs at the Roosters & well respected by the players and one may note that Taylor having had his fingers burnt badly with senior coaching never gets mentioned in dispatches these days.