With a stable top order and a settled bowling unit, the biggest question hanging over Australia ahead of tonight’s ODI series opener against England is whether a rocky middle order can fire.
While disappointed with the T20 series loss, a pain somewhat eased by a consolation win on Wednesday morning, coach Justin Langer could take plenty from the first half of Australia’s white-ball tour.
Despite a wayward opening five overs of the series opener, the Aussie seamers and spinners from there executed well after a six-month layoff.
Equally impressively, the fielding was of a consistently high standard, and far superior to the hosts.
But yet again, questions emerged surrounding the make-up of Australia’s middle order, which struggled when it mattered.
The most damning (and eventually series-defining) result was in Game 1 where needing just 39 runs off 38 balls with nine wickets in hand, the Aussies stumbled to lose the unlosable.
The senior top three of David Warner, Aaron Finch and Steve Smith should have seen the result home, with the captain generously shifting blame onto himself after the loss.
But the fact is that trio got Australia to 1/124 — a more-than-sturdy platform in pursuit of just 163.
From there, it was the job of the middle order to finish things off, which they spectacularly failed to do.
The sequence of events, though, was unsurprising.
(Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Too often in the last 18 months, the top order have carried Australia’s short-form teams.
When they fail, rarely have the batsmen at five, six and seven bailed them out as the likes of Eoin Morgan and Jos Buttler have regularly done for England.
And now, Australia take their middle-order woes into the series starting tonight.
Some might argue that issues in T20 aren’t relevant to the ODIs, but the two XIs are very similar.
Breaking it down, the Aussies now have a question mark over who they play at positions five, six and seven at Old Trafford.
A top four of Warner, Finch, Smith and Marnus Labuschagne is nailed down, with many fans looking forward to the Queenslander donning the green and gold again.
Since their return to ODI cricket in last year’s World Cup, Warner has averaged 61.6 and Smith 45.7.
During this time Finch has averaged 51.9 and Labuschagne averages a healthy 50.8 from his first seven games.
So the top order, by any measure, are holding up their end.
Similarly, positions eight to 11 in the side are also largely settled.
Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Adam Zampa are locks for the bowling unit, with the final seamer’s spot being a battle between Kane Richardson and Josh Hazlewood.
(Action Foto Sport/NurPhoto)
But positions five to seven are where Justin Langer and George Bailey (the two selectors in the UK) will deliberate most over.
And in short, it’s a five-way battle for the three spots.
Mitch Marsh is perhaps the most likely of the five to play, not only after his man-of-the-match knock on Wednesday morning, but also as the incumbent.
Marsh has played Australia’s last four ODIs: the three-game series in South Africa and the single match against New Zealand before the series was halted in March due to COVID-19.
He performed relatively well in these games, returning scores of 16, 36, 32 and 27 with the bat and bowling an average of six overs per game.
While his selection has often been a source of contention, he plays an important role in the balance of the one-day side and should he stay injury-free, at 28 he still has many years ahead of him.
Should the Aussies stick with four specialist bowlers and Marsh, Aaron Finch will need a sixth bowling option at his disposal.
The second all-rounder spot then looms as a battle between Glenn Maxwell and Marcus Stoinis.
(Photo by Jono Searle – CA/Cricket Australia/Getty Images)
Neither have played a 50-over game for Australia since they lost the World Cup semi-final to England well over a year ago.
On any measure Maxwell is the stronger option in the middle-to-later overs, especially the huge discrepancy in strike rate between the pair (Maxwell 123.4 and Stoinis just 91.9).
He is also a handy second spin option (as shown in the T20 series), something that will be needed in Manchester where all three games are to take place.
But Maxwell perennially seems to leave the door open on his spot in the XI, and a series of poor shots in the last week hardly doesn’t help his cause.
Finally, the wicketkeeper’s spot is an intriguing choice between Alex Carey and Matthew Wade.
Carey has played every ODI since his debut against England in 2018, and since then has been the new darling of Australian cricket.
But his form with the bat has been poor of late.
In his 12 ODIs and T20Is for Australia this year, Carey has scored just 131 runs at 11.9.
On Wednesday morning he was dropped for Matthew Wade, an important distinction from Warner and Cummins, who were rested.
Wade looked far more comfortable facing Jofra Archer and Mark Wood than Carey, something that may factor into a decision for tonight’s series opener.
So while the Aussies go in confident of upsetting the world’s number one ODI side, it’s clear the only way this might happen is if the load is shared.
Should Langer’s vaunted top order fail, it’s time for the middle order to step up.
My predicted Australian XI for the first ODI versus England
1. David Warner
2. Aaron Finch
3. Steve Smith
4. Marnus Labuschagne
5. Glenn Maxwell
6. Mitch Marsh
7. Alex Carey
8. Pat Cummins
9. Mitchell Starc
10. Adam Zampa
11. Kane Richardson
If he's batting at No.3 he'll make daddy hundreds, ensuring big scores. Labuschagne can bat 4, he's probably a little more dynamic at ODI cricket anyway, Smith's strike rate hasn't been all that stellar for quite a while in ODIs, so I'd rather him have as much time as possible. Maxwell just needs to pull his head in and bat well enough to cement a No.6 position, it just adds so much more flexibility to the team
Jez
Roar Rookie
Also can someone please tell Alex Carey to put away the sweep shot. What was once a real strength is fast becoming a weakness.
Jez
Roar Rookie
I’ll admit I didn’t have Marsh in my side for last night but I was happy to be proven wrong. Going forward Maxwell is a lock. You have to forgive the occasional brain fade when you get what he produced last night. Plus he bowls handy overs and is an absolute gun in the field .
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
Looks like Maxy and Marshy have been reading the criticisms of them on the roar. Just the thing to spur them into action. :stoked
Paul
Roar Guru
I'd rather watch his average rise to the mid 40's while he's batting at the most difficult time of the innings to bat, so he can help the side regularly make scores around 300. If he does that' with our attack, we're a great chance to win the vast majority of games.
Paul
Roar Guru
Our issue is a lack of dependable lower order players. England solved this by playing guys like Woakes, Curran, Ali, etc, but the trade off is these guys are not top notch short form bowlers. Again, they will have their moments with the ball, but England right now has the approach that they can run down any score because they bat down to at least 10. We are batting down to Carey, who is currently not in great form, then expecting 7 - 11 to get swags of runs at the toughest time of the innings to bat; the last 10 - 15 overs. That makes no sense to me, unless we can "create" a player the lower order can bat around, eg another Bevan or Steve Waugh. That's where I see Smith fitting in.
Let Smith bat at No.3 and watch his average rise to 50. If they keep screwing around with him and moving him down the order, which gives him less time to make big scores which he can do quite regularly once he gets a consistent run in ODIs again, it will mean he never achieves the level of greatness we know he can
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
Yeah I don't disagree ... but moving either Smith or Labu into that role would be exactly the same flawed selection strategy.
bowledover
Roar Rookie
Bernie - i dont know who is firing the middle order domestically to demand a position aside from Wells in the BBL. But i do wonder how often we can try and force top order batsmen into middle order roles and wondering why they dont succeed.
bowledover
Roar Rookie
I agree, Maxwell is one of the few players Australia has currently that can do the middle order role - who has power, the ability to shift momentum in the middle overs... consistency is the concern. I dont think we should expect a crazy fireworks show every time he bats, but he needs to be able to stich together a bit more consistency between the big innings.
Rellum
Roar Guru
We use the same guys (Maxwell, Carey, Stoinis, MM, etc), who have proven to be less than adequate game after game. Who do you replace them with? This is the problem. I think Maxwell is fine, but we need another Maxwell in there as well so if one fails the other picks up the slack. WE don't have one.
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
Fair enough, so who is succeeding hitting in the 5-7 positions in domestic cricket? Don’t know how old you are, but if you were around in the 1980s, you’ll agree it’s similar scenarios to what the selectors did with Wayne Phillips … they destroyed a potential genius of a batsman by forcing him to double as a keeper when he wasn’t the best keeper in the country by a long shot.
bowledover
Roar Rookie
I wanted Lynn to succeed as much as anyone - but his domestic success was higher up the order, not at 5/6/7. So unless you accept a Lynn at 3 and move him a Smith or Labu down the order, it isnt fixing the problem.
bowledover
Roar Rookie
Wade can certainly attack - but again, he is known for attacking at the top of the order. So would need to be able to demonstrate this against spinners and the bowlers who are going to be trying to deploy tricks to strangle the scoring.
bowledover
Roar Rookie
Australia has been sort of at sea in the ODI arena since the World Cup. Interestingly enough, I think they felt more clear in those couple of games in India before the ODI world cup. At least the performances seemed that way. I agree with Paul. It doesnt seem they have really thought about what could fix the middle/lower order issues. You dont just need "power" in the middle - you need people who can work gaps, turn over strike, force bowlers to change plans and upset rhythm. Carey's numbers are concerning and I hope he turns it around, but he seems just as likely right now to get bogged down in the middle/late overs. I dont mind the idea of moving Smith down the order at all.
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
As the old saying goes, a chain is only as strong as it’s weakest links, and the two big weak links in the 11 link chain that constitutes Australia’s one day team is the complete absence of power hitters to come in at 5 and 7. The top four of Warner, Finch, Smith and Labuschagne is awesome, as is our strongest bowling attack of Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood and one other, which leaves the keeper and two others. Carey is genuinely solid as both a keeper and a number 6 to perform a Bevan like finisher role. I am not saying that Carey has quite Bevan’s class as a batsman, but in this contemporary era, at least two power hitters are a must to bat each side of him at 5 and 7, particularly when chasing large formidable totals. Case in point: In the first match of the series v India earlier this year, Australia were 2-240 odd chasing 340 odd with 10 overs to go, and Smith nearing a ton, and debutant Labu nearing a half ton. Ideally, you want both of them to stay there, lift the tempo and get us home. But that will not happen every time. Working down, they attempt to lift the tempo, one of them has their day and stays til the end while the other holes out, bringing in a hitter to take some pressure off the one who remains … Working down further, both Smith and Labu lift the tempo, both hole out, but by the time the second one does, the hitter at 5 is established and Carey comes in to work the ball around at a good rate while the hitter explodes. If that hitter holes out, then the hitter at 7 comes in and Carey continues to anchor the innings in this situation in a Bevan like manner and so on … The problem is, we don’t have anyone with the inclination to do those two necessary hitting roles at 5 and 7 … Maxwell, an enigma who has had some champion like days, rather than a genuine champion in his own right, is not so much completely over the hill, but nor is he a star on the rise … he has almost certainly peaked and is in decline already … MMarsh and Stoinus are the problems who just aren’t performing often enough when given the opportunity, and some have suggested that Stoinus is more a legitimate top order batsman than a genuine power hitter … India are a more complete one day side than us right now because they have power hitters that perform more often and that helps Kohli establish his own awesome reputation as a chaser … Tendulkar had the problem that the likes of Smith and the emerging Labu have for us right now … Where are our power hitters that can perform often enough? Did Chris Lynn prove himself not quite good enough for international one day cricket, or did the selectors not give him enough opportunity to actually prove or indeed disprove himself? I don’t know the answer to that. But I do know, that for the moment, when chasing big totals, Australia are effectively batting two players short. .
congo
Roar Rookie
Wade is a big hitter and would be a good option over Carey. Carey is a bit rusty, but I think we can give him a few more chances. I would choose Maxwell over Stoinis as he has a better strike rate. But I don’t think that there is room for both of them. Agar would be a good option to strengthen the middle order. 1. David Warner 2. Aaron Finch 3. Steve Smith 4. Marnus Labuschagne 5. Glenn Maxwell 6. Mitch Marsh 7. Alex Carey 8. Ashton Agar 9. Pat Cummins 10. Mitchell Starc 11. Adam Zampa
Zenn
Roar Rookie
1 David Warner, 2 Aaron Finch (capt), 3 Steven Smith, 4 Marnus Labuschagne, 5 Mitchell Marsh, 6 Alex Carey (wk), 7 Ashton Agar, 8 Pat Cummins, 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Adam Zampa, 11 Josh Hazlewood
Marty
Roar Rookie
I understand the theory Paul however I’m not sure you make a side better by changing what’s working well to compensate for what isn’t. Just because something hasn’t worked yet doesn’t mean it won’t. I think that the steady improvement in our IT20 and Test teams has shown that Langer and Co are on the right track so I’m happy to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Paul
Roar Guru
I just don't get a sense that we've learned anything over the past 12 or 18 months when it comes to ODI cricket. We know we've got a great opening pair. We've also got real strength at 3 & 4. Our numbers 8 - 11 are terrific short form bowlers but not going to contribute much with the bat and we have issues at 5, 6 & 7. What d we do about it? We use the same guys (Maxwell, Carey, Stoinis, MM, etc), who have proven to be less than adequate game after game. Sure they've all had their moments, but none have cemented a spot in the team because they're so inconsistent. Wasn't Einstein supposed to have said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, but expecting a different result? We know we've got an attack to bowl most sides out for middling scores, which significantly reduces the need to have to belt the ball around at the death, IF we bat to our strength. Smith goes at a strike rate of 131 in T20's, so can probably do more than just accumulate. I'd bat him at 6 with orders to bat as he see's fit, similar to MS Dhoni. The lower order can bat with him and he can dictate the back end of the innings. The other thing this would do for the top of the order, is make change the oppositions bowling plans. They'd have to keep back more good bowling options knowing Smith could come in and really go to down on ordinary bowling.