The date of January 16, 2020 could haunt Collingwood and its supporters for at least the next decade.
This was when the Magpies announced they had signed ruckman Brodie Grundy to a ridiculous seven-year, $7 million contract, tying him to the club until 2027, when he will be 33.
Grundy was coming off another dominant year and quite rightly exercised his right to shop around and sniff out the best deal.
It was up to the Magpies to ensure they managed their cap space and made a prudent decision. Grundy wanted seven years and the Magpies wanted five years.
Having continually missed out on players in the free agency market, Ned Guy – the Magpies’ inexperienced list manager – didn’t want to be seen to let go of one of its stars.
Guy panicked… and blinked. Grundy was signed for life.
The decline of Grundy in 2020, the first year since re-signing, is staggering. Clearly the fatigue from years of carrying the Magpies’ on-ball department is wearing on him. He looks more like 36 than 26 and has been bettered by VFL-standard opposition on a weekly basis.
His data ratings have seen him go from the best ruckman in the competition to equal sixth and in a recent outing against Brisbane he managed just one clearance (an area he used to dominate), while Brisbane’s Oscar McInerney – a journeyman in every sense of the word – had nine.
The simple efforts of jumping and covering ground appear too much.
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
But even if this decline had not occurred, the contract was a laughable one even while Grundy had been dominating his position.
Ruckmen in the modern game do not win you premierships. Ruckmen are the most overrated position in the game with the least influence on the outcome.
There is a litany of examples over the past decade of premiership-winning ruckmen being a small cog in the team’s overall success. Names like Ivan Soldo, Toby Nankervis, Scott Lycett, Nathan Vardy, Jordan Roughead and Ben McEvoy are all solid citizens but absolutely nothing more. They would all be in their premiership team’s bottom six.
There is no better example than Grundy himself in the 2019 preliminary final against GWS, which the Magpies lost. It was a game where Grundy dominated his position.
Grundy’s numbers in that game were extraordinary. He won 73 hit-outs and ten clearances. He had 25 disposals and the Magpies dominated the clearances 54 to 35.
If ruckmen were so influential, Collingwood should have won by ten goals. Alas, all the tap outs in the world couldn’t be converted into genuine match dominance.
This brings me back to why the Magpies have blundered in handing out such a large contract.
The sporting phrase Moneyball was made famous by Billy Beane and the Oakland As baseball franchise for stretching your salary cap and player contract space. It should be front of mind for every AFL list manager.
AFL clubs only have a finite amount of money to spread across their playing list and need a very clear understanding of what areas of the park they should focus on.
A dominant big man is well down the shopping list. Strong key forwards, reliable key backs, line-breaking midfielders and X-factor small forwards should sit atop.
Collingwood now find themselves hamstrung, paying a player whose ability is diminishing by the week in a position that will not bring them any closer to success. Grundy has essentially taken the money the club needs desperately to find a key forward.
Is there a solution? Yes, but it requires the club to be bold – something the list management and coaching staff have shown little interest in being over the past few seasons.
Could Collingwood hoodwink another club to take the Grundy contract and essentially salary dump, to borrow an NBA phrase?
The Magpies are desperate for a key forward and have been for the better part of a decade. Jeremy Cameron remains an elite player angry with his current plight at GWS with their stagnant ball movement making his job of kicking goals near impossible.
As another player on a mega deal, could they swap positions and allow GWS to finally have a dominant ruckman while the Magpies get the final piece of the puzzle?
It would be a brave play and largely unheard of in the AFL landscape to dump a player so quickly after re-signing but it is a regular occurrence in American sport, to which the AFL is always playing catch-up.
Three-hundred-game player and pundit Kane Cornes summed it up best: “Seven years and seven million for a ruckman who has had a heavy workload and is already banged up, what will he be like at the age of 34?”
It’s a fair question.
CHRISTOS KARAMEROS
Guest
My beloved pies have lacked key position players for the past 60 years. The most obvious exception was Ted Potter. This has meant that my team has always placed a lot of emphasis on ruckmen. The lack of height around the ground has meant that there has been enormous dependence on ruckmen such as these famous names: Mann, Fellowes, Gabelich, Thompson, Moore, Monkhurst, Fraser and now Grundy. As regards the importance of ruckmen in Grand Final winning teams, there are many examples to refute the silly argument of the writer (Darren Jolly 2010). What Collingwood's problem has been since time immemorial is not recruiting key position players and recruiting Collingwood six footers as key position players. A ruckman can carry your team so that you make finals series but a key forward can't. So, you consistently make finals but you fail in Grand Finals because you don't have impact players to take pack marks to either score vital goals or save the day. By the way, the Maggies won in 2010 because they were fortunate to get a decent year out of Leigh Brown and Chris Dawes who played key position roles well that year. The following year, they weren't up to scratch and the flag went to Geelong. It's not rocket science! The players that have always won you flags are ruckmen, key position players, rovers and centreline players, whereas flankers don't. The changes in footy terminology in today's game haven't changed the essence of the game.
Thepiewoman
Roar Rookie
Tell me what job you can get paid $1m dollars and "get rested" If he is injured, someone needs to fess up and stop putting us through the misery of watching him.
Thepiewoman
Roar Rookie
Best comment of all!
Aus in Engerland
Roar Rookie
I'm sure they do. Just as West Coast regret giving Collingwood the pick they used to get Grundy in exchange for Sharrod Wellingham.
Flagpies
Roar Rookie
Umm no PTS, he does not have the evasive skills or speed in ball skill like a Cripps, Danger, Martin or TheGoey. You're forgetting the club is grooming Jordy for this role (or should be!), it's because of our frankenstien forward set up that (which is largely due to our funk type ball movement - anyway there's other articles with that discussion) that it's not happening now. What your visualising is something like a Nic Nat. Only NN is NN, on face value it looks like you're in wish desperation mode because of our horrible form. Understandable but this is not the answer.
Mark.
Roar Rookie
2dogs is entertaining, you’re boring.
Dave
Roar Rookie
Could be doing it for clicks
Dave
Roar Rookie
Agree completely PTS, I wouldn’t be surprised if they said Grundy was managing a injury. If so just rest him? His second efforts are gone and although he wins the hit outs they aren’t very effective anymore.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Come back Seeds, all is forgiven!
Aus in Engerland
Roar Rookie
'Roar logic: the leading Hit Out and Hit Out to advantage player in the league isn’t a good ruckman.' I don't think that's the argument. It's more that even if he was dominating, ruckmen don't win games over dominant mids/fwds or rebounding backs. I read the argument as 'no ruckman, no matter how good, would be worth that contract in money or length'. And I actually agree with that. Grundy is an outstanding ruckman having a form slump which he may or may not get over. Regardless, he isn't worth a Dusty contract. Spending about 8% of your salary cap on 1 player - you want a good return. You want a match winner, time and time again. Would I want him on my list? Hell yes! Would I want him on my list at $7Mill for 7 years? **** off!
Jimmy
Guest
It's the place to be Peter. I am sure Grundy is kicking himself :laughing:
Jimmy
Guest
oh yes of course, I'm the sensitive one. I forgot :crying:
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Definitely not. Otters' noses on the other hand....
Paul D
Roar Rookie
Does it come with wafers
Scott
Guest
Agree with that. The best ruckman in the 6x6 game are the ones who get clean hit outs to advantage. The most dominant ruckman in the game now is Naitanui because he wins clean hit outs to midfielders who then get a clear easy kick into the forward line. Paddy Ryder is pretty good with clean hit outs as well
2dogs
Roar Rookie
Can’t Bowl Can’t Bat
r0bsta
Roar Rookie
When they started talking about this deal I felt that the GWS prelim should have been looked at more closely. The pies midfield never looked to be able to really capitalise on Grundy at his best, with that match being the clearest demonstration of it. The pies had two real choices after that: 1. pay Grundy what he wants and build the midfield around him, in a way that can work to his strengths 2. let him go The pies seemed to have failed to do either of those, and in the mean time other teams are working out how to play Grundy. Could well be an albatross.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Albatross!
Col
Guest
Yep, it’s been painful to watch him this year. He has moved like a slug most of the season and is too often beaten in a contest. He just doesn’t seem to care anymore. It’s significant that opposition players push and shove him but he never responds.
I wouldn't be writing Collingwood off yet. They are the team most likely to benefit from the bye.