Predictions for the 2020 AFL finals

After a crazy and unpredictable campaign this season we can discuss the AFL finals.

Many clubs have stood tall in the shortened home-and-away season, creating such a competitive competition that the outcome of all the final ladder came down to the clash between Port Adelaide and Collingwood. With the Port Adelaide victory, the finals matches are now set, so it’s time to put on our psychic hats and try to predict the outcomes of the games.

While my predictions for last year did not come to fruition, everyone loves to try and make assumptions as to who will take out the ultimate prize and be crowned 2020 premiers.

So without further ado, here are my predictions for this year’s finals series.

Week 1

Qualifying final 1: Port Adelaide vs Geelong
Adelaide Oval on Thursday, 1 October, at 7:40pm (AEST)
This is an interesting match-up as both sides have shown tremendous form during 2020. Port Adelaide wrapped up the minor premiership on Monday night with a win over Collingwood. This win led to the Power finishing the season with an impressive 14-3 record, the team’s only losses coming at the hands of Brisbane, St Kilda and Geelong.

Geelong have also been in solid form, with many speculating in the past month that they are the flag favourites. The team has played a chunk of the season without stars Gary Ablett and Joel Selwood as well but have still managed to secure a top-four position. With those two stars now back, Geelong have some solid leadership on the oval to lead them through this finals campaign.

However, looking back at results throughout the season, Port Adelaide have clearly looked more dominant. With many pundits failing to recognise them as premiership favourites despite leading the league table all season, Port Adelaide’s talented list will pull out the win in front of their Adelaide faithful to stamp their name as a team to be taken seriously.

Winner: Port Adelaide.

(Photo by Matt Roberts/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Elimination final 1: West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood
Optus Stadium on Saturday, 3 October, at 8:10pm (AEST)
I found this the easiest game to determine a winner for in the first week of the finals. Despite coming into the season as arguably one of the premiership favourites, Collingwood’s year has been a rocky disappointment. They managed to finish just eighth on the table despite being highly competitive throughout the last two seasons, and they have been hit with injuries and suspensions. Steele Sidebottom’s decision not to return for the rest of this season is a big blow to the club.

While there is still plenty of talent on this list, including Scott Pendlebury, Brodie Grundy and Jordan de Goey, they are coming up against a West Coast squad that has simply been dominant in the latter half of the season. With players like as Nic Naitanui, Tim Kelly and Josh Kennedy on the list, the Eagles will be too dominant at Optus despite likely missing many of their stars to injury, with Jeremy McGovern the highlighted absence. West Coast should be confident going into this game and will likely come out the victors, leaving Collingwood to go home and prepare to be more competitive next season with a rejuvenated squad.

Winner: West Coast Eagles.

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Qualifying final 2: Brisbane Lions vs Richmond
The Gabba on Friday, 2 October, at 7:50pm (AEST)
This game will likely be the match of the round, with two titan clubs going head to head. Both sides have had stellar 2020 campaigns, with their stars leading the pack as usual. Although they started the season rockily, Richmond have had a stellar second half of the year and managed to pull off some big wins over other finals contenders. They defeated Brisbane by 41 points, West Coast by 27 points and, more recently, Geelong by 26 points to place themselves firmly as one of the teams to beat this Finals series. They have been led by the usual suspects, such as Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt, along with a team that has arguably the most depth in the competition.

Brisbane have also taken full advantage of the AFL hub being situated in Queensland, playing many games at the Gabba. This year looks the most likely in a long time they can secure their first premiership since 2003. With star midfielder Lachie Neale likely to take home the Brownlow Medal and many of the young side’s players hitting their prime this season, 2020 seems to be Brisbane’s year.

Unfortunately for Brisbane, they have to face the Tigers in Week 1, a team that seems to be their kryptonite. The Lions have not won a game against Richmond since 2009, leaving the Tigers very confident they can win a hard-fought contest. While streaks are being constantly broken, Richmond have been in terrific form and will ultimately take this game by a very narrow margin to stamp themselves as firm premiership favourites.

Winner: Richmond.

(Ryan Pierse/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Elimination final 2: St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs
The Gabba on Saturday, 3 October, at 4:40pm (AEST)
What a year to be a St Kilda fan. The club brought in many new recruits such as Bradley Hill, Zak Jones and Paddy Ryder, while their young players continued to develop into star form and lead them to their first finals series since 2011. It may have come down to the final round, but both St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs managed to lock in finals spots and set up a match that is arguably the most intriguing of the week.

On their day both clubs can take it to anyone in the competition. However, both the Bulldogs and Saints suffer from consistency issues. Both clubs can struggle at times to play a full four quarters of football, which has resulted in some losses that could have been prevented. For instance, St Kilda have lost to both North Melbourne and Fremantle in games they should have won. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have struggled to find consistent form, which has led to a few near losses and some heavy losses to the other sides playing finals.

This match will ultimately come to who can get hot early and sustain the temperature for the entirety of the game. This leads me to believe that St Kilda will take this one if the performance is anything like the game we saw them play in the 52-point belting of the GWS Giants. St Kilda have also proven they can beat the top clubs, defeating both Richmond and Port Adelaide and coming within two points of Brisbane and competing hard against West Coast a fortnight ago. The Bulldogs, while having a solid season, have failed to bring it against many of their fellow finals competitors, and the Saints will defeat them in another hard-fought match.

Winner: St Kilda.

(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

Week 2

Semi-final 1: Geelong vs West Coast Eagles
The predicted results for Week 1 lead us to an interesting win-or-go-home clash between two sides that have been consistently great for the past decade. Both the Eagles and Cats have been blessed with success over the past decade, with both teams consistently in contention for the premiership flag.

The Eagles will be confident coming off their Week 1 win over Collingwood, while the Cats will be hoping to bounce back. Tom Hawkins and Josh Kennedy will both be crucial in this match-up, with the scoring titans needing to be in their best form to outscore the other, while the midfield battle will also be a huge decider in who wins this match-up.

The Eagles will be helped by the expected return of some of their injured stars for this clash, but Geelong have more to play for as their stars get older and their premiership window may be closing. I expect them to play harder and secure the win, booking a preliminary final date with Richmond.

Winner: Geelong.

Semi-final 2: Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda
Brisbane’s loss to Richmond in Week 1 will see them face a hungry St Kilda team in a semi-final that will be tightly contested if their match earlier in the year is anything to go by, when the Saints lost to the Lions by a mere two points. It leads me to believe this match will be just as hotly contested.

Both clubs have terrific midfields featuring players such as Jack Steele, Lachie Neale, Daniel Rich and Bradley Hill. Both teams are filled with youth and talent, with the game arguably coming down to who can be more accurate between the sticks. Brisbane and St Kilda have both shown they can be high-scoring teams this season, though both have also shown inconsistency in front of goal. If one of the teams manages to get accurate and hit the scoreboard hard early, they will take the win.

However, while this game should be competitive, I sense the St Kilda fairytale run will come to an end and Brisbane will turn on the heat to set up a 2004 grand final rematch with Port Adelaide in Week 3.

Winner: Brisbane.

(Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Week 3

Preliminary final 1: Port Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions
Port Adelaide and Brisbane were the top two teams during the home-and-away season and are both teams that years ago no-one would have expected to be playing for the chance of a grand final appearance. Both teams are evenly matched, with solid forward lines, midfielders and all-round winning attitudes this season. Both teams finished with a strong 14-3 record and have proven that they have what it takes to win the premiership.

Port Adelaide will be looking to prove the doubters wrong and secure their place in their first grand final appearance since they were demolished by Geelong back in the 2007 grand final, while Brisbane will look to make their first appearance on the big stage since the 2004 loss to the Power. Brisbane will not want to miss a chance to play a grand final in front of their home fans, and I see them taking this game for a once in a lifetime opportunity to play a grand final in Brisbane.

Winner: Brisbane.

Preliminary final 2: Richmond vs Geelong
Another clash of the titans-type game sees Richmond face Geelong for a spot in the grand final. The premiership pedigree in this game is immense, with both sides consistent powerhouses in the league. This match will be a high-scoring, highly physical affair as both clubs will look to secure the final spot in the grand final. The midfield battle will determine this game, and unfortunately for Geelong fans I see them once again falling before they even get to the big dance.

Winner: Richmond.

Week 4

Grand final: Brisbane Lions vs Richmond
Both clubs in this grand final have had consistent and dominant years. Richmond and Brisbane both have terrific midfields and forward lines and have been premiership favourites since the beginning of the year.

While both sides have the potential to take out the premiership, Brisbane won’t miss the opportunity to complete the fairytale story. If they win, they would be winning their first premiership since 2003 and breaking a decade-long drought against Richmond. It would also be a premiership won on home soil in the first-ever grand final played at the Gabba. Though they would arguably come into the match as the underdog, the stars will align for the Lion, who will hold the cup up proudly in front of the roar from their fans at the Gabba.

Winner: Brisbane.

The predictions above were extremely difficult to make, as this season has been full of unpredictable outcomes. The fairytale finish for the Brisbane Lions, who have been dominant all season, seems fitting for a year that almost could have been folded in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Lions will celebrate in front of their many adoring fans in Queensland as the rest of the competition prepares for another unpredictable campaign in 2021.