Unquestionably the 2020 NRL season is unlike any other in the code’s history.
Almost all the teams have had to cope with the exceptional circumstances of conducting a professional sporting competition in the middle of a pandemic that has seen the season interrupted initially, then games played without attendances, then teams unable to host home games, while all the while team’s reserves have been unable to get match practice as they wait their call up.
That and the lack of a byes may have contributed to what seems to have been a bad year for serious injuries across the league.
And to top it all off, the league introduced new rules when the season resumed.
At the end of the regular season we have our final eight but it is, arguably, the top four from which our champion will emerge.
Penrith, the minor premiers, have seemingly coasted along and compiled a gaudy 18-1-1 record two and a half games ahead of the team in second place.
They have seemingly been getting better and better each week.
The Melbourne Storm have, as usual, been a consistent team again this season with a 16-4-0 record and, despite a couple of key injuries and the odd suspension, have been able to blood some rookies and are ready to contest the playoffs.
The defending premiers, the Sydney Roosters, have struggled a little in comparison to 2018 and 2019 but still sit in third place with a 14-6-0 record.
This weekend’s demolition by the South Sydney Rabbitohs may well have an impact of how they play in the finals but whether that will be a negative or positive effect is hard to know right now. The Sonny Bill Williams effect has not noticeably improved this team, yet.
Rounding out the Top Four are the Parramatta Eels with a 15-5-0 record but it’s fair to say they haven’t been convincing winners for quite some time and appear to be the weaker of the four teams.
But in a season that has seen the teams play four less games than in 2019 it is the five teams they each played twice that gives us a clearer picture of their relative merits.
This strength of schedule is another way to rank our top four.
All four teams played each of their 15 league opponents once and then each of them (and every other team for that matter, but I’m focussing on the Top Four) were, I assume, randomly scheduled to play a second match against five of their opponents.
When you calculate the Win-Loss record of the teams each of our Top Four played twice during the season a different picture emerges. We’ll call these ten games the Home and Away opponents.
Penrith’s Home and Away teams had a combined 45-55-0 win-loss record for a .450 win percentage.
Melbourne’s Home and Away teams had a combined 58-41-1 record for a .585 win percentage.
Sydney’s Home and Away teams had a combined 52-48-0 record for a .520 win percentage.
Parramatta’s Home and Away teams had a combined 38-61-1 record for a .385 win percentage.
I believe the comparatively weak strength of schedule that both Penrith and Parramatta have faced, along with the fact they have both played a majority of their games in Sydney, if not at their actual home grounds, has contributed to their place in the Top Four.
I accept that teams can only beat who is placed in front of them and that Penrith have done that more than anyone this season but I wonder whether they are ready for the step up in calibre of opponent they will face this week. The Roosters have been here before, the Panthers not so much.
Likewise are the Eels. Have they had too easy a run to ‘season’ them for the playoffs?
The Storm and the Roosters appear to have had tougher opponents throughout the season and, therefore, could be judged to be just right for the rigours of the playoffs.
I’m not a betting man, but if I were, I’d be thinking of backing a repeat of the 2018 grand final. Sorry Panthers, sorry Eels.
Rellum
Roar Guru
I think that is more than last season, maybe a lot more
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
Good one mate, I reckon I did hear on a game commentary the other week that indeed Penrith were the benficiaries of the most Set-Restarts in the NRL so the figures are available to some it seems. Shame they are not posted officially because they are essentially Penalties without the stoppage in play. Has anyone seen a team penalised for too many Set-Restarts given off, say while defending their line?? Did anyone go to the bin for such an occurrance or did it never happen?
CaptainC
Roar Rookie
Great Analysis. One factor that will determine the winners will be the refereeing. While the set restart speeds up the game the hidden agenda of the NRL was to remove scrutiny of the Refs (no time for video replays). No team can win without possession and momentum is even more important under this rule. For example, in Souths flogging of the Roosters the Penalties were 4-1 against and the set restart was 6-1 against the Roosters. Therefore the Roosters made twice as many tackles (400 to 200). If the refs do this in the finals then the results will be forever tainted. I'd like to see the stats on the set restarts but of course the NRL does not keep them (Deliberately?). I suspect that Penrith would have been favoured in set restarts explaining their fairy tale ride. The NRL does not want a threepeat!
bigandy70
Roar Rookie
I have written the Roosters off for 2020 - am astonished at the odds this week, Penrith $1.80 and Roosters $2.00. Surprised Penrith are any higher than $1.50.
bigandy70
Roar Rookie
6 times in 18 matches - R4 Suncorp (Broncs); R 8 Suncorp (Storm); R9 Townsville (Cows); R11 Central Coast (Warriors); R13 WIN (Dragons); R17 Canberra (Raiders) - how does that compare with Penrith and Parra?
Rellum
Roar Guru
How many times Roosters left Sydney since the restart. How many times have the other top 4.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Don’t under estimate the loss of Ryan Sutton and Curtis Scott to this side. The former was the hardest forward in the side and the loss of the latter weakens the center with Rapana and puts a vulnerable rookie on the wing..no doubt in the world they’ll be heavily targeted
steveng
Roar Rookie
The FW-1 is going to be easy peasy for the Bunnies by heaps but that won’t happen as we’re going to have it just as easy with the Eels, after that we’d rather have the Chooks in the SF’s, give them another flogging lol but it looks like we are going to play the Panthers in the PF’s and then Raiders in GF and then we will be singing “Glory Glory to South Sydney” >>> Go You Bunnies! Tips FW-1 Panthers by 10 Raiders by 20 Storm by 8 Bunnies by 12
Col in Paradise
Guest
Yep I'm getting that feeling although a Raiders and Souths man...
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
For those interested, I've just looked at both Canberra and South Sydney to see who had the tougher draw coming in to the finals in comparison to the Top Four we've discussed. The Raiders H&A opponents had a combined 54-46-0 Win-Loss record, that's a little above the Roosters but still below Melbourne. The Rabbitohs H&A opponents had a combined 43-57-0 Win-Loss record, not as tough as Penrith's but a harder group than the Eels faced. Conclusions, the Raiders have had a tougher campaign than two of the Top Four teams so, I expect them to go deep into this finals series and consider them a 'dark horse'. The Rabbitohs, notwithstanding their most recent outing, maybe not so much.
mushi
Roar Guru
They've got the best F/a (and I'd imagine even better weighted towards the last 5 weeks) that's normally my favourite amongst the top 4
mushi
Roar Guru
I'd also do the "adjusted" F/A, I think that's where Penrith's would still look okay given they finished so high on F/a. It would still imply they were an elite side
egbert
Guest
Yes, as a fellow Panthers fan it's all heavy reading that we're apparently destined to fail, but I can see where most people are coming from in thinking we may not have the juice for the intensity of finals against these tried and tested teams. On the upside, it will be all the more glorious if we do win it, and manage to ram their words down their throats.
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
That's true Jimmy, although I cannot think of another NRL team that would have played so well for so little as the Storm did that season.
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
I agree on the Warriors, their season has been the most extreme and with sacking their coach and losing players to the pressures of family and distance they have clearly pulled together as a unit and really done exceptionally well. If the other team you are referring to is Melbourne, well, they have made the best of the situation for sure, they always do, but it is no surprise that they are contenders, they always are. My point is that Penrith and to a lesser degree, Parramatta, may have a better Win-Loss record because of the schedule this season than if it had been a 'normal' year.
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
Thanks Barry.
Chris Love
Roar Guru
While it’s not exactly going out on a limb here. I think the winner of the comp will come down to the winners of this weekends top 4 play-offs. For the winner of the bottom 8 sides to play either of the losers of the top 4 in week 2 then have to back it up again to win to make it into the final will be too much. If you were to assume that the rank on the table predicts the week one results. That means week 2 Canberra and Souths will have to play Roosters and Eels.. that means Canberra will have to beat the Roosters (or Panthers) week 2 followed by the Storm week 3 just to make the final. Same for Souths, sure they are white hot at the right time of the year, but they potentially have to go through first Newcastle, then Eels (or Melbourne) then Panthers week 3. Those are long roads and why essentially the winner of the comp comes from the top 4. Both NQ and Parramatta have done it but fell in the final. The road is too long to come from the bottom four. I could give a hope to a Roosters/Melbourne side that finished 5/6 as long as they were back to full strength by the time finals came around purely on the strength of the roster and significant finals experience but this year I can’t see it happening with Canberra or South. The winner of the comp will come from the winners of Panthers/Rooster or Storm/Eels this weekend.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Joe I think one of the most rèmarkable seasons I have ever seen was the Storm playing for no points. Nothing mattered at all and the only motivation was the us against the world mantra. And it worked. RL is a strange game and turning a team into a TEAM is voodoo science but I do think the adversity thing and being part of an ostracized group can play a big part.
Joe
Roar Rookie
You could be right on this. In the beginning the players/coaches were saying it was difficult being away from home and not having the training resources/staff around but in the past month or so I've noticed a few interviews where players have talked about the closer bond between players and team spirit being strong so there's definitely pluses and minuses.
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
Good point. I just put $1000 on Parra by 13+