There is no denying it, news out of France over the weekend that former Brumbies and Wallabies lock Rory Arnold could be ruled out of the Rugby Championship with a broken arm is a massive dent in Dave Rennie’s plans for the international season.
When it was announced earlier this month that Rugby Australia had granted Rennie an allowance to pick two overseas-based players for the 2020 Test matches who don’t qualify under the so-called Giteau Law, there was little doubt Rory Arnold headed the list of players Rennie wanted. He might have been prepared to debate other names, but Arnold was his non-negotiable.
That plan is now in tatters, with Arnold suffering the injury 23 minutes into Toulouse’s 28-18 loss to Exeter in the European Champions Cup semi-final.
If Arnold is out, then we arrive at this point: if the one player an allowance was created in order for the coach to select is suddenly no longer available, then don’t bother with the allowance.
Yes, attention will undoubtedly turn toward the likes of Will Skelton and Izack Rodda in France, or even Adam Coleman in England, but are any of them definitely better than players toiling hard in Australian teams playing Australian game plans under the eye of the Wallabies coach?
Are they definitely better than Cadeyrn Neville, for example?
Neville was a Player of National Interest right up until the point Rennie was granted his allowance just weeks ago, so surely the obvious move is to call in the player that was already highly regarded by the coach and selectors.
Get him over to New Zealand and hastily into quarantine, and he could be right to go for the second Bledisloe, which would not have been the case with Arnold anyway.
But with the lock situation both complicated and solved by Arnold’s unavailability, it only leaves the Wallabies with two main areas of concern: who plays in the midfield, and who starts in the front row.
Front row
Up front, it’s more a matter around hooker and tighthead prop. James Slipper was comfortably the form loosehead in Super Rugby AU, and the Brumbies have seen major benefits from swapping he and Scott Sio between the bench and starting side for the last two seasons. But Slipper’s superior scrummaging makes more sense from the start of a Bledisloe Cup Test, and he should start.
At hooker, it’s a toss-up between Rebels rake Jordan Uelese and our pick for the Super Rugby AU team of the season, Folau Fainga’a.
Tolu Latu’s name has come up discussions about bringing overseas players home, but it again becomes a question of his current form. Is what he has produced for Stade Francais in 2020 definitely better than Uelese or Fainga’a? That’s all that counts, not what he did for the Wallabies at the World Cup 12 months ago.
This leaves the tight spot around tighthead prop.
Taniela Tupou was named the player of the competition in Super Rugby AU and made our team of the season as well, although our Editor Daniel Jeffrey pumped for an all-Brumbies front row in his Wallabies XV last Friday, giving the no.3 jersey to Brumbies skipper Allan Ala’alatoa.
Though there was more than enough reaction along “how can you leave out the best player in the comp!?” lines, what complicates the issue for Rennie is the timing of unleashing Tupou on the All Blacks.
There’s no real argument that he probably does deserve a chance to start in Tests, but there is certainly an argument as to whether that is where the Wallabies would most benefit. The idea of throwing him into the contest for half an hour of quality and impact has plenty of merit and doesn’t detract from his form for the Reds at all.
Midfield
Midfield is no clearer.
Dave Rennie has made a bit of noise about Noah Lolesio being old enough if he’s good enough, but making his Test debut in a Bledisloe contest wearing the no.10 jersey would be a huge ask for even the most prodigious of talents.
Where Lolesio fits in is probably answered by how Rennie intends to use Matt To’omua, and to a lesser extent James O’Connor.
The fact Rennie is entertaining the thought of playing Lolesio suggests O’Connor isn’t likely to be needed at flyhalf, so then it’s a matter of whether he wants To’omua’s better tactical kicking and game management at flyhalf or whether that can still work at inside centre.
It feels like a choice between the safer To’omua-O’Connor combination starting, with Lolesio coming off the bench, or a Lolesio-To’omua midfield with O’Connor in the no.22. He could potentially be used at outside centre if Reds teammate Jordan Petaia isn’t fit for the first Test. It’s hard to see To’omua coming off the bench when his skillset is more geared towards starting a match.
Obviously, having options is better than the alternative. It will be curious to see how Rennie’s rugby philosophy fits around Australian players and his first Wallabies squad.
Redder
Guest
Unfortunately Rennies selection of Hooper as captain and 7 Tah forwards has already let him down. He already looks like another coach out of his depth at test level.I thought Rennie would stop the same rot. Looks like he is a taking orders from RA and Scott Johnson.
Buddy boy
Guest
The Chumps became the CHIEFS when Dave Rennie became their coach, he has an outstanding ability to convert potentially good team's into champions, makes this contest extremely interesting for me.
elvis
Roar Rookie
I'm sure I said never...?? Anyway, that's what I meant.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
There’s no way to get that tin hat off then? He’s a Kiwi. If you still think he’s biased towards NSW, I’m just going to leave you to wallow in your misery, no saving you. There is a real world out here though if you want to play
Davos
Guest
"It’s a new, post-Cheika era. There’s a new coach with no agenda " Hanigan Maddocks and Bell still in Rennies squad. I see no change. Neville Campbell and Hoopert should have been there instead. Swinton over Naisirani ? Rennie is another Cheika.
Red Rob
Roar Rookie
Oz, yes you’re right, saying he’s no ball runner was overstated. Fairer to say that’s its down the list of his attributes. Overall I like Harrison and won’t be surprised to see him in the WBs within a few years.
numpty
Roar Rookie
No never said 'only' I said best. If nullifying the weapons of the ABs and limiting their opportunities in the WBs half is 'playing it safe', then sure. I thought that was just smart footy, but maybe you wanna stick with the tactics Cheika has employed for the last 4 yrs and have the WBs consistently try and run it out of their own half playing high risk rugby.
terrykidd
Roar Pro
Numpty you did say "play not to lose" that is playing it safe. So Toomua is the only possible 10 or 12 who can kick for territory? Nah, we have seen what he has and its time to move on.
stillmissit
Roar Guru
Bodger: That's what's great about this site, you have your opinion and I have mine and never the twain will meet. One of us will eat humble pie and I think it will be you and you think it will be me. Time will tell. He takes the ball to the line but rarely gets any support, he kicks well in all areas. He is gutsy and tackles well. He will make a fine 10 in time. Obviously Rennie sees something in him or he wouldn't be there.
jameswm
Roar Guru
Yes
Red Rob
Roar Rookie
Ordinarily I’d agree, but if MT and JOC are in the 23, given they cover 10, 12 and 13, I think it’s doable.
Nuance
Roar Rookie
Why not? Could we go worse than the last 15 years?
Nuance
Roar Rookie
Fair points. Except that Banks has played for the WBs before and not impressed at the next level. And it's probably not DHP's fault that when he beats the tackle there hasn't been anyone there to take the offload. Not his role to beat 6 players and score after 50m. I reckon my suggested backline would have plenty of eager recipients... #justmytwocents
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Not the last 2-3 years
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
I really hope we ever send a professional Wallaby team out planning to have a crack because they haven't a hope. And I know Rennie won't think that way
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
I think the best 12 has been playing 10
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
I though Sio played his best game for a while in the final. Aggressive both sides of the ball and scrummed OK. I still prefer Slipper but think the step down isn't as big as it was a month ago. I'm not sure Sio deserved to be picked a month back
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Totally agree. Despite what people's perception of JOC are, he's always been strong and brave and a good defender. Toomua's defence is as good as it gets for an inside back - and without the risk of him having a brain explosion and getting carded like Farrell
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
I genuinely believe that our players didn't believe in Cheika's game plan. They're smart guys and could see much better than we casual observers how it was failing. No way to build confidence from that position
Olly
Roar Rookie
DHP is the wallabies best 13 that never was. Wasted career playing at 15 when he should have been a 13 from a young age.