The Roar’s NRL expert tips and predictions: Semi-finals

Panthers vs Raiders grand final, you heard it here first.

Maybe he is talking about the six again call by the 2nd referee that caused Canberra to run it on the 6th tackle rather than kicking the match winning field goal. They scrapped the two referees after that catastrophic system fail so it won't happen again. Easts were lucky to win in 2019 and Souths showed how weak their defence is. Keary is a brilliant attacking player but a liability in defence.

Ain't that the truth. The trouble with being premiers is that every other team aims up when playing you. That leads to increased fatigue and increased injuries even if most of those don't actually stop you playing. That is why the week off is so very important. Had the Roosters won last week, I could see them getting to a third GF. As it is, they will be in for another very tough battle again this weekend.

Apart from stating that history tends to support that a bye is a big advantage, where have I used historical stats ? Of course Raiders v Rabbits GF is not ridiculous and I never said it was, All I said was that the Odds are stacked against it and that is a statement that I stand by.

There are several eminent scientists around the world who have suggested that temperature is a governing factor that decides how long this thing can live outside of the human body, a theory that supports why cold stores and meat processing works tend to be "hot spots" for this thing. That being the case, maybe a large part of Victoria's bad luck is that they suffer a real winter unlike most other states. This theory also supports why most of Europe is suddenly going nuts again. The sooner we can get this thing beaten and back to a proper sporting calendar the better (I have to confess to watching AFL last week, a whole 5 minutes before I turned over - wife suggested I should see a psychiatrist).

Semi-Finals... the time of year that no top-four team wants any part of. It means a harder path to the grand final, it means an extra week of fatigue, and worst of all it means the possibility of going out in straight sets. Both the Roosters and the Eels will be heavily disappointed with their losses last week; the Roosters being unable to match the Panthers' passion and rabid fans screaming them on, and the Eels taking their foot off the gas for ten minutes and allowing the Storm to run away with the game courtesy of some incredible attacking play and Blake Ferguson living down to his reputation of being a colossal disappointment. With that being said, they'll need to bounce back quickly and not let the losses affect their mental state as they are both playing resurgent sides who have every reason to believe they could make the grand final from outside the top four. The Roosters take on a well oiled green machine in a rematch of the 2019 grand final, although this time without Ben Cummins and hopefully the Roosters' trainers despicable antics. The Eels host the Rabbitohs at the same location they were humiliated at merely a month ago by 38 points to zip, without star winger Maika Sivo and second winger Blake Ferguson. Starting with the Roosters/Raiders match; it's hard to predict exactly how both sides will deal with their performances last week. The Roosters played exceptionally well against the Panthers only to be run down by a point, while the Raiders started sluggishly against a side they were expected to blow off the park. The return of Jake Friend will no doubt be a massive boost for the Chickens, while the Raiders will benefit from having all of their stars back and without the rust that plagued them during the first half of last week's elimination final. Sonny Bill Williams also lines up on the bench for the Tri-Colours, and I would be so unbelievably happy to see Papalli smack him straight back to Toronto. That notwithstanding, both teams are fielding tremendous line-ups. I think the odds on this one are a little harsh against Canberra; $2.75 to pick up the win against $1.47 is really interesting considering the form and momentum of both teams. The Roosters hosting in Sydney would be a benefit to them in theory, were it not for the fact that they lost to a severely depleted Raiders outfit at the same venue earlier in the season. Trent Robinson will no doubt have been exceptionally fired up at training this week and no doubt the Chooks will similarly be firing on all cylinders in a desperate attempt to keep their threepeat aspirations alive. The Raiders meanwhile will have a burning desire to avenge last year's controversial grand final loss and continue their own charge towards making amends for not bringing the trophy down the Hume highway. The Storm awaits at Suncorp the winners of this game, and I think it will be the Raiders. The Raiders' roll just seems a little more impressive compared to the Roosters, and I think their spirit and desire will get the better of the Roosters and send them back to Bondi with their tails between their legs. It won't be a blowout but the Raiders will get the better of a fatigued and injury-plagued Eastern Suburbs. Raiders by 4. Turning to the second game, and the game I have been dreading since about 10:00 pm last Saturday. The Rabbitohs are the deserved favourites here; having demolished the fortress of Bankwest stadium back in the regular season and putting on a clinic in the second half against a disappointing Newcastle side last week. They will fancy their chances against the Eels and they will likely fancy their chances against the Panthers next week should they make it that far. The Eels held their own last week against the Storm to the surprise of many; managing to recapture a spark from the start of the year that they have lost somewhere over the course of the last three months. It wasn't enough to get the better of the Melburnians and earn the week off; some wayward defence in the second half coupled with a few minutes of lowered intensity and Blake Ferguson failing to make a catch that you would expect of a schoolboys side led to the Eels being shoved into the dreaded sudden death semis. Sivo is out, and Fergo is likely to be sitting next to him on the sidelines necessitating a different looking backline from Brad Arthur. It remains to be seen how big an impact this will have, but hopefully the replacements will earn their jerseys and keep us alive. For all the disappointment in losing a game they looked a possibility to win, it is important to remember the backline shuffling that was required after Sivo went down. It's all well and good to say things could have been different had the side remained intact, but it's a point that does have some legitimacy. Either way, al 17 men are going to need to bring the same urgency and intensity they brought to Suncorp and keep it there for the full 80 minutes if they want to knock off the Bunnies and set up a western derby preliminary final in a week's time. Cody Walker is in career-best form and if he can manage the troops the same way he and Adam Reynolds did against the Knights last week, it will be hard to see the Eels matching it with them. Add this to the psychological advantage the Rabbits will have after shredding the edge defence of the Eels a month ago, and you can see why the Rabbitohs are the bookies' favourites. I said last week that I would consider a preliminary final appearance to be a successful season this year and while my head leans towards the Rabbitohs snuffing out that prospect, I'm listening to my heart and tipping a Parramatta win. We simply need it far more and if Brad Arthur can recapture the form we showed in the first 20 minutes against Melbourne, we should be able to hold off the Rabbitohs provided we keep our heads and don't let them get around us on the edges. Against my better judgement, the Eels will prove that they were not just making up the numbers in the top four by besting the Bunnies and moving on to Penrith next week. Eels by 8. TL;DR: Raiders, Eels. Side note; I really wish Grant Atkins was refereeing this week.

What? Not so subtle? :stoked:

If form was the determining factor you can’t go past Raiders and Rabbits... that being said it’s sudden death footy and anything can happen. Let’s just hope that the bloke with the whistle, the flags or the bunker of doom have any influence on the results

You can’t use historical stats this year. As people have continually pointed out it’s unprecedented. The best way to look at it is it doesn’t matter who has been the best team over the whole year, who are the best teams right now. Forget where they finished, what does the recent form say? Based on that you’d have to say a Rabbitohs v Raiders GF is not a ridiculous thought. They are momentum teams and playing through is better for them than a week off

Almost classic Stockholm Syndrome here...

Really couldn’t have been handled any worse . When you look at the outcomes in other states , Chairman Dan has made an absolute cluster F of the whole thing . But the dummies will lap up his propaganda like homeless kittens.

Far from illogical my dear big mig, Firstly any team with a bye at this crucial time of the year has a massive advantage over those teams having to kick the heck out of each other just to get through to the next round and history has proven this to be so. After a none stop season (barring the covid suspension) and one with arguably higher intensity games (because of rule changes), that advantage is even more pronounced this year than ever before. Its also true that teams ending the regular season in the top 4 tend to be stronger teams than those in the bottom half of the eight and so again this supports the view that those "bottom of the eight" are less likely to make it to the big dance. Now multiply that chance by 2 as you need 2 "bottom of the eight" teams to achieve that feat and the odds are very heavily stacked against a Rabbitohs vs Raiders GF as David Predicted. Of course, anything can and often does happen which is why we love our Rugby League but the odds are against it. As for the Broncos winning the spoon or Panthers winning the premiership, neither of those things has one dot of relevance to my argument.

(semi) Desperate times call for desperate measures, and so on that note I placed a bet on the Bunnies, thereby virtually guaranteeing Parra the win.

You mean you hope they can get revenge without the aid of the ref like the GF which they still couldn’t capitalize on!! Or you want more ref assistance just like the grand final but hopefully this time that will capitalize on the refs help? Maybe Soliola will actually take out Keary for the whole game after attacking his legs on a charge down? https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/roosters-were-robbed-in-grand-final-just-like-raiders-refs-boss-20191102-p536vg.html

What were the odds at the beginning of 2020 that Broncos would win the wooden spoon and Panthers win the Premiership. Your logic of odds is illogical.

I’ll go the green double too. Roosters look tired, especially Keary. And I think Souths have got the slightly better players in important positions.

The Raiders will be banking on being fitter and fresher than the Roosters. They have been coming over the top of sides in the final 30 minutes of games and apparently only concede 2 points per game between the 60 and 80 min mark. I wonder if this will be their tactic again? let the roosters come hard in the first 40 and then run over the top of them later in the game. Roosters of course are not the Sharks or Bulldogs or Dragons... If the Roosters get out to a big lead I don't think the Raiders have the execution in attack to run them down. Both games could go either way.

:thumbup: well said!

and an absolute BS sinbinning of Simonson

Mary, sorry to jump in on this article, but where is your article on the women's comp? Back to this article, raiders and bunnies 18 + both games.