2020 AFL grand final: The ultimate preview

Some 219 days after the season started without a single soul watching Richmond play Carlton live at the MCG, the strangest AFL season in history will conclude when up to 30,000 fans pack the Gabba for a historic grand final between the Tigers and the Cats.

It will be the first to be played away from the MCG since 1991, the first ever to be played outside of the state of Victoria and the first to be played at night.

As a symbol, a small patch of MCG grass was trucked from Melbourne up to Brisbane last week and will be transplanted into the Gabba turf.

But while the grand final may have been shifted out of Victoria for this year only, the cup will return home, with this being the first all-Victorian grand final since 2011.

Both the Tigers and Cats were forced to take the long way around to reach the grand final, losing their qualifying finals against the Brisbane Lions and Port Adelaide at the Gabba and Adelaide Oval, respectively.

The Tigers bounced back to defeat the Saints in their semi-final at Metricon Stadium, while the Cats thumped Collingwood in the other at the Gabba, keeping the Pies to only one goal inside three quarters and finishing with a score of 15.10 (100) themselves.

Finally, the Tigers overcame Port Adelaide by six points in the preliminary final at Adelaide Oval to advance to their third grand final in four years, while the Cats ended their preliminary final curse with a strong win over the Lions at the Gabba.

The Cats’ win over the Lions, which denied the home side the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to win a premiership cup in their own backyard, did not come without controversy, with replays showing that Patrick Dangerfield threw the ball that led to Gary Ablett Jr’s match-turning goal in the third quarter.

Eerily, the respective coaches, Damien Hardwick and Chris Scott, defeated the sides with whom they featured in flags as players – Hardwick being part of Port Adelaide’s 2004 premiership side, and Scott featuring in Brisbane’s 2001 and ’02 premiership classes.

While the Tigers have enjoyed the ultimate success in two of the past three seasons, for Scott’s side it will be their first grand final since they defeated the Pies by 38 points in 2011 to win the most recent of their nine flags.

It will also be the third time in four years that they have met in a finals match, with Richmond winning both times – in the 2017 qualifying final, whereby a huge final-quarter got them home, and in last year’s preliminary final when they came from 21 points down at halftime to win by 19.

Overall, the Tigers have won eight of their ten finals meetings against the Cats, including their most recent meeting in a grand final, in 1967.

Further, it will be the third time that Hardwick and Scott go head-to-head in any capacity in a grand final, having faced each other in the 2001 and 2004 deciders.

The teams’ only regular-season meeting, in Round 17, saw Richmond tackle their way to a 26-point win at Metricon Stadium, though the Tigers’ winning margin could have been so much bigger if not for their inaccuracy, which saw them boot 7.15 (57) from 22 scoring shots.

The Cats had gone into that match on the back of six straight wins by an average of nearly 43 points, but were shown as wanting more than willing on that night.

It now remains to be seen what lessons Scott’s side have learnt from that match, and whether they can defeat a colossus that is the Richmond Football Club, led by their ‘Big Three’ of Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and Dustin Martin in the biggest match of the season.

Dustin Martin (Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

This will also be the final match played by the legendary Gary Ablett Jr.

The ‘Son of God’ has achieved just about everything in the game, winning two premierships and claiming the Brownlow Medal twice – once during his first stint at the Cats in 2009 and another while he was captain of the Gold Coast Suns in 2013.

But there is only one major award he has yet to win, the Norm Smith Medal, and how fitting would it be if he wins it in his swansong.

Further, it will be Joel Selwood’s 200th match as captain and, having featured in each of their previous three flags (2007, 2009 and 2011), he will have the chance to become a four-time premiership Cat, though 2020 would be his first as skipper.

Then there’s Dangerfield, who will be playing in his first grand final after over 250 games, as well as Luke Dahlhaus, who was part of the Western Bulldogs side that won the premiership from seventh place in 2016.

And last but not least, Gary Rohan, who will be hoping it’s fourth time lucky after missing the Sydney Swans’ 2012 premiership flag due to a leg injury, as well as playing in the 2014 and 2016 deciders which were lost to Hawthorn and the Bulldogs respectively.

A win for the Cats would also see the club come full-circle in their prolonged period of consistency and excellence – which began in Round 6, 2007, when they thrashed Richmond by 157 points at the Telstra Dome (now Marvel Stadium).

From that side that walloped the Tigers, only Selwood (who was playing only his fifth game), Hawkins (also his fifth) and Ablett (who polled the three Brownlow votes in his 106th game) remain. There are no survivors from that Richmond side still playing today.

As for the Tigers, Cotchin could join the likes of Michael Voss (2001-03) and Luke Hodge (2013-15) as triple premiership-winning captains this century.

Another who could notch up a hat-trick is Martin, who won the Norm Smith Medal in each of the Tigers’ past two flags and could become the first man to ever win the medal for a third time, and for a second consecutive time after Andrew McLeod (1997 and 1998).

And while up to 15 players (including Cotchin, Martin and Riewoldt) could become three-time premiership Tigers, it is unlikely Josh Caddy will play after he suffered a hamstring injury which has seen him sidelined since August.

[3] Richmond vs [4] Geelong Cats
Saturday, October 24 at 6:30pm (local)
The Gabba, Brisbane

This season: Richmond 7.15 (57) defeated Geelong Cats 4.7 (31) at Metricon Stadium in Round 17.
Last meeting in a finals match: Richmond 12.13 (85) defeated Geelong Cats 9.12 (66) at the MCG in the second preliminary final, 2019.
Last meeting in a grand final: Richmond 16.18 (114) defeated Geelong Cats 15.15 (105) at the MCG in 1967.

The stats that matter
• This is Richmond’s 25th grand final, having evenly split their previous 24 deciders 12 apiece. They are looking to win a 13th premiership, which would draw them level with Hawthorn and trail Essendon, Carlton (16 flags each) and Collingwood (15).
• This is Geelong’s 18th grand final, they are 9-8, winning the most recent against Collingwood in 2011. They have not won a grand final in an even year since 1952.
• This is the third grand final between the two clubs, after previous showdowns in 1931 (won by the Cats) and 1967 (won by the Tigers).
• Up to 15 Richmond players can become three-time premiership players.

The verdict
While the Tigers may appear stronger on paper and have retained the majority of their recent premiership players, the lure of sending Gary Ablett Jr out a winner, as well as Joel Selwood playing his 200th game as captain and Patrick Dangerfield playing in his first grand final, will motivate the Cats to win.

Predictions
Match: Geelong Cats by ten points.
First goal and most goals: Jack Riewoldt (Richmond), Tom Hawkins (Geelong Cats)
Most disposals: Dustin Martin (Richmond), Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats)
Norm Smith Medal: Dustin Martin (if Richmond wins), Patrick Dangerfield (if the Geelong Cats win)