The 2020 Bledisloe Cup analysed – Part 1: The Wallabies

After four matches, what can we draw from Dave Rennie’s start? A win and a draw bookended two losses of which neither were very close.

The Wallabies scored 52 points – a dismal average of 13 per Test, up against 27 All Blacks points per match. Rennie had a good look at quite a few newcomers and combinations to see their Test match temperament, power, grit and relative speed against the best.

We can divide the four games into two good and two bad, but one constant reigned: few tries. The Wallabies attack has been tepid for a couple of years now – just one-off spurts, as in Perth. So far the norm is one try a match, with the last Test the only deviation (two tries).

There are signs of promise. More tries might have been finished off against a team without the supernatural scramble defence of the All Blacks. For example, the Wallabies manufactured almost ten breaks per Test. They also broke over 20 All Blacks tackles in three of the Tests. Thankfully offloads declined.

In the good Tests the Wallabies kicked the ball from hand an average of 19 times. In the bad it was just 13 a test. In the good Tests the Wallabies lost 12.5 turnovers per match. In the bad it was 20 per test.

On defence it looks as if basic tackling technique as well as spacing in the line must improve. The Wallabies missed almost 18 per cent of their tackles on average, and this did not improve.

Over the course of the series the Wallabies cut down on being pinged, ending up on the good side of the ledger in Bledisloe 4 (11-13) after beginning with a twice-as-much Bledisloe 1 (14-17).

Richie Mo’unga. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Who is locked into which jersey? James Slipper, Matt Philip, Michael Hooper, Nic White, and Marika Koroibete started all four Tests and seem to have a good purchase on their numbers. Also, it seemed as if Brandon Paenga-Amosa and Allan Alaalatoa are the other pillars in the front row. Taniela Tupou seems a better bet in the last stanza than the first.

I am not sure if we can say that Lukhan Salakaia-Loto looked better than Rob Simmons in the one game he started. Experience matters.

Except when it doesn’t. Young Harry Wilson supplanted Pete Samu at No. 8 and also started all four games (the first at blindside). His mate Jordan Petaia seems a certainty at No. 13 going forward – he was hard to stop.

The positions that still seem uncertain are at tighthead lock, as mentioned, and also at the vital positions of blindside and flyhalf. James O’Connor has to be in the team but seems an ideal No. 23. Reece Hodge isn’t a natural No. 10 with his long wind-up (charge downs will come), but he was utterly magnificent in the win. Noah Lolesio was baptised in fire and was a bit singed.

Ned Hanigan is a hard worker and a lineout athlete, but the cameo of Lachlan Swinton made one think of ‘Aussie Schalk’.

At inside centre Matt To’omua proved how crucial he is by going down to injury. My issue with him is that durability is a skill or trait just as leaping or speed, and he is prone to missing games. So who is that person? It could be O’Connor playing a dual playmaker role but with a bit more space to run.

Tom Wright was a revelation and may just have more rugby IQ than phenom Filipo Daugunu.

For the bench it seems as if Gus Bell will push Scott Sio up and out. Between Jordan Uelese and Folau Fainga’a it is 1A and 1B, but I would go with the less loopy thrower.

Liam Wright seems the perfect loosie backup. He can fit into any role and has no fear.

Finally, I think the backup scrumhalf should be decided based on the style of attack Rennie wants. Jake Gordon may provide the better bullet but Tate McDermott the better snipes.

The one huge loss – the worst in history – looked like a return to the bad old days. But in all of the other three the Wallabies improved in the second halves, a sign of a well-coached, motivated team.

Hooper seems to me to be a bit like Pieter-Steph du Toit for the Boks in that he has a motor and is a rare athlete, but, unlike PSDT, he is a captain. This is still a mistake. Du Toit has never captained any team; he just flies around and does PSDT. Hooper needs to hoop. There are other leaders – perhaps in the front row – who seem better suited to this new group. But that is just an opinion from afar.

I do like that this version of the Wallabies fights hard and has some honest biff and niggle. Gone are the excuses.

Good signs. I’m pencilling them in early as semi-finalists in 2023 along with New Zealand, South Africa and England.