It’s rare that one player can dictate the entire course of an Origin game on his own, but when Queensland and New South Wales run onto Suncorp Stadium this evening, Cameron Munster could do just that.
While it’s hard to say a single player would have changed the course of the beatdown NSW handed their opposition in Game 2 to level the series, it’s not a stretch to say that, in Brisbane and with a week of reflection and correcting of tactics for Wayne Bennett, the battle between the two sides will be closer this time around.
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The Blues are still favourites, but after the shock of Game 1 in Adelaide, it’s not nearly as straightforward as things were originally predicted.
The biggest spanner in the works heading into the decider is that, while the Blues dominated at home, they did it without Cameron Munster on the field for all but two minutes.
While the opener might seem like an eternity ago given what has happened since, the real worry is NSW weren’t properly tested in Sydney.
The six changes Brad Fittler made to the team, which ignored the biggest problems in the centres, weren’t actually put to the test, while Jack Wighton and Clint Gutherson both got cruisey runs.
Of course, as the first half in Adelaide illustrated, Munster can’t do it all on his own, but if the forwards stick to the simple gameplan of their super coach and compete well, Munster provides all the x-factor required.
Given Wighton missed as many tackles as he made in Game 1 and his fellow outside backs were more leaky ship than strong footy team during the second half in Adelaide, the fact they cruised through their home game to keep the series alive actually poses more questions than answers.
While making no changes provides an edge in terms of continuity, the way Munster frees up the game of Daly Cherry-Evans, the way he works with Jake Friend, and the way he gives Dane Gagai time and space to work will cause headaches for his opponenets.
Dane Gagai (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Harry Grant also comes into the side for this game and, playing off the back of Munster’s running game, could create attacking opportunities.
While the men in maroon may not have confidence or momentum, a full house at Suncorp Stadium is a dangerous Origin beast. No matter the occasion, the players or the circumstances, NSW teams heading north have never had much fun, and that statement becomes even truer for a decider.
The stats show the Blues have only won a third of all games in Queensland. That leaves them with a mountain of work to do.
And while it was suggested this is the worst Queensland team in the history of Origin, Bennett has scoffed at those remarks and it’s clear he was right to do so.
Yet some in the media continue to say it, despite the fact we now have a live rubber to look forward to this evening.
Munster might be the almost single determining factor in how his side plays, but we are also waiting with bated breath to see which Blues team will run onto Suncorp Stadium.
If it’s the dominant, free-flowing, creative team who scored tries for fun in Game 2, then they are going to be a hard beast to stop.
James Tedesco and Tyson Frizell. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
But if they don’t play that same direct style and instead revert to going through the motions as they did in Adelaide, then this game gets interesting.
The Blues also need to dominate in the back three to give their forwards an edge. With Christian Welch returning, the Maroons can go toe to toe with their opposition pack, but the outside backs still leave plenty to be desired, with Corey Allan likely to play fullback.
There is a big difference in quality at that end of the team list, and while James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou and Josh Addo-Carr had their way last time out, with running metres off the charts, this again can be traced back to the lack of Munster.
A poor kicking game allowed them to dominate, meaning they started plenty of sets up near halfway by the time tackle one was taken, which was particularly problematic with the six-again rule and a faster speed of play.
The Melbourne Storm half may not be noted specifically for his kicking game, but it still plays a vital part. Not only that, his running and creativity gives Cherry-Evans time and space for his kicking game.
If that happens and Queensland can nullify to the Blues’ back three, then the game is back in the balance once again.
Munster is so important to Queensland’s charge and if they are to stop NSW winning a three-peat away from home, then you can say with some certainty that Munster will be in the discussion for man of the match honours.
He is just that important.
Zak
Roar Rookie
Well Scott, take a bow because you were correct about Cameron Munster. I also posted that I was worried Fittler didn’t select a utility on the bench with the chance of HIA and unfortunately my fears came true. As a Blues supporter I’m not looking forward to the new team few years because key players like Minster, Harry Grant, Tino, Papa etc will be around fir a while
MCPC
Roar Rookie
Queensland choked NSW out of ****Game THREE**** buy dominating the middle, allowing their kickers to kick from good field position and find space. NSW barely started a set outside their 20 metre zone from minutes 5 to 70 by which time the game was dusted. NSW wingers and centres had to do all the heavy lifting from a metres perspective because they were starting so deep
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
That aged well.
Racing Chicken Trainer
Roar Rookie
I think you nailed it Scott
souvalis
Roar Rookie
NAS has been playing 13, Tui has been a long time injured and Shonig isn't ready for any top 8 roster. Dessie H. shone some light on Jurbo's perceived quietness of late. Freddie's got him doing the ball playing for Cody Walker, which releases the 6 from doing anything other than heads up running. So, the low metres are in fact gold meters. Yeah, those lads you mentioned all worked well in game 1, then got bashed up a week later. Blues' fate tonight is in Freddie's hands.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Dunno, but Mal thinks Tino is worth $800k to the Titans. Nelson would get that too at a struggling club..would Welchy ?
Zak
Roar Rookie
Good article Scott. You are on the money regarding the impact Munster will bring. I’m a NSW supporter and I’m nervous that our bench has 4 forwards and nobody that can cover hooker or the backs if there is an early injury like Munster in game 2. We got away with it in game 2 but with HIA assessments nowadays I have a bad feeling about not carrying a dummy half/back utility on the bench.
Nat
Roar Rookie
What does Bellamy think?
Nat
Roar Rookie
I have no doubt that Siafiti is Freddy's first choice. My comment wasn't to blow out Siafiti's candle but to highlight the importance of what Welsh brings to Qld. There is no stat recorded publically for the 1% stuff he does. Even Joey is nervous for Cleary about Welsh coming back. Did I see any Qlders dominate NSW forwards - yep. Tino was toying with them. Collins made more metres from the bench than all bar Siafiti and Cordner. Su'A and Arrow ran for nearly 200m combined. That's more than all 4 bench players for NSW, inc Walker. Paulo and Jurbo were passengers and Frizell stayed on the bus. Obviously Freddie saw that and made the neccessary changes. I never said Welsh is the best prop at his club, Bromwich is, but he is keeping NAS, Tui and Shonig out of the starting 13. Whether people agree is their opinion, I'll follow what Bellamy is thinking.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
and if we rightfully consider Nelson and Tino as props, he comes in at Number 4.
Nat
Roar Rookie
NSW were brimming with confidence for the first game. No need to dream - here's the highlights of how that turned out. https://www.nrl.com/tv/news/match-highlights-blues-v-maroons-1136894/ You're welcome.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Its not an affront its a retort to : 'Partnering with Papalli, they can monster the NSW forwards. Paps cannot do it on his own.' by a toad supporter.. Did you see any big maroon men monstering iddy biddy blue men in Game 1 ? Considering his changing chair partners I strongly believe Saiffiti is the first prop Freddie picked for Game 1, for Game 2 and for Game 3. So logically in Freddie's eyes, and that's all that matters to him, he's the best number 8 the current repeating champions have. Re living game 1 this morning for hitting and carrying defenders thru the line, no other front rower/ middle man got near him. BTW there are probably more out there who vehemently believe Welch is not the best front rower at his club either.. or Gagai the best anything at his.
Nat
Roar Rookie
Fair enough, Crichton is a better choice but the outcome is still the same. Someone still has to play 80 when they weren't supoosed too, stuffing the rotation. No gen play kicker or goal kicker. Walker is restrained to the middle. Lastly, you've dismissed the idea of losing the MoM as something that can just be covered. If Cleary doesn't play and Munster does, G2 a whole different ball game.
Nat
Roar Rookie
Ha! I'm a Qlder mate. Make no mistake, we would never have been as dominant without our dark brothers. What I would give for that backline again and a bit of Charlie Webb mongrel in this series. I'm not going to talk up Welsh too much. I know what he brings. I talked up Hunt last game and, well, we know how that turned out.
MickDonovan
Roar Rookie
He won a premiership so I'm not going to dismiss him at all, but if Saifiti plays at all like he did in game 2 I'll take him over Welch. Plus NSW have so many gun indigenous boys, deadly across the park underestimate them at your peril.
MickDonovan
Roar Rookie
First of all Chrichton goes into the centres not Yeo and he holds the line, it wouldn't be ideal but they would come. QLD went into that game complacent and it showed. Losing Munster was big but the team leaked tries out wide. As a blues fan I'm very nervous about tonight but I don't think the Blues are as bad as you make out.
Nat
Roar Rookie
It's not a comment on the Blues. It's funny that any suggestion that a Qld player is that equal of any NSW player is seen as an afront. This bloke is starting prop in the most structured, high effort, premiership winning team. He has kept other forwards on the bench that would start in any other team. NSW have Siafiti, not even the best prop in his club. I know who I want in my team.
Nat
Roar Rookie
Ok, nice simple over view based on "the forwards would just run over the Qld forwards". Let's go a little deeper. Yeo moves to center, throwing off rotation and leaving the big boys to play more mnutes. Walker at half is stuck in the middle when his biggest asset has been his roving and showing up 2-3 passes wide to create. Yeo now lines up against Gagai - good luck. The NSW kicking game is thrown into disorder, both Wighton and Walker can kick but they are a distant second to Cleary so there goes your field position. Walker is not a noted defender, what happens to their defensive structures?
Kobi
Guest
One man won't make one iota of difference against a NSW side brimming with confidence after smashing QLD in game 2. Dream on if you think Munster will turn it around tonite.
josh
Roar Rookie
Queensland's game 2 reminded me when Cooper Cronk was injured Game 1 in the 2014. Queensland missed Cronk the rest of that series and NSW won. Hopefully Munster will right the ship for Game 3