The laws of unintended consequences are often a function of unrivalled success.
It was only a couple of short weeks ago that I wrote a piece on The Roar headed, ‘Why is there such variability in the All Blacks’ forward performances?‘. In it I pondered aloud why there was little consistency in the way the New Zealand side played.
This article pinpoints the time when this side began its clear slide and why it is past a tipping point that the current coaching team cannot recover from.
There was plenty of death riding in the All Blacks after winning the 2015 Rugby World Cup, as Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Keven Mealamu, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith headed into retirement, taking 558 Test caps with them.
The new team’s response was to win ten games on the spin with an average winning margin of 28 points. Wales, South Africa, Argentina and Australia were all summarily dismissed with ease. So much for the post-World Cup depression period.
Sam Cane. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
But it was right here that the Steve Hansen-Ian Foster partnership entrenched the beliefs that are the basis of the current All Blacks ills. They have ignored the natural laws of the game – that is, the right to go forward – and believe they could pick sides that could simply outplay and outrun anyone.
Then came the loss in Chicago and so many warning bells associated with this game, but they were all ignored.
The All Blacks treated a Test match like a friendly. All week we saw pictures of them at ice hockey games and Chicago Cubs street parades, while Joe Schmidt sat at home drilling his side on how to play this one match.
New Zealand showed little consideration for how the opposition would play. The selection of Jerome Kaino in the second row reflected that attitude.
Lastly, despite the loss, it was consigned to history as a game of little consequence with nothing learnt. Defeating Ireland in Dublin and completing the European tour undefeated ensured the errors of Chicago were not taken on board.
It had become clear that the gap between the All Blacks and the top sides in the world had all but closed, but losses and closes calls were sidelined as outliers, while South Africa, France, Australia, Wales and Argentina all had cricket scores posted against them reinforcing the new doctrine.
Not only had this belief that New Zealand can outrun anybody been imbedded as gospel within the coaching side, a whole new generation of players began to be integrated into the All Blacks who were not schooled in the long history of staying in an arm wrestle until the opposition broke, instead they are focused on the waiting to score from opposition errors, forgetting that if you don’t pressure the opposition into errors it’s going to be awful hard to score from them.
This entrenched belief led to some shocking selection errors leading into 2019 Rugby World Cup. Not taking Owen Franks was a criminal call, the sidelining of Ben Smith even more so – two guys who simply don’t make errors in their core roles but deemed not to fit the ‘up-tempo’ way the All Blacks now play.
The selection for the semi-final against Eddie Jones’s well-coached England should have been the nail in the coffin for this flawed theory, but hidden by the comfortable wins over both South Africa and Ireland, onwards they ploughed.
Sam Cane and Dane Coles started from the pine and Ben Smith and Ryan Crotty were gone from the 23 altogether.
East-west selections were prioritised over north-south players. The balance of the side had been irrevocably tilted.
Surely that Jones coaching ambush would prove to the death knell of this approach, and Bledisloe 2 and 3 both showed levels of control and variability in the game plan to suggest a corner had been turned for the better.
All Blacks coach Ian Foster. (Photo By Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
But then came the mass rotational decision and the inability to think on their feet against an excellent Pumas side that confirmed little had fundamentally changed.
There is still this focus on playing up-tempo rugby, and my heart sank when captain Cane used this phrase in the lead-up to the Argentina game. It has compromised not only the quality of the side but also the very ethos on which All Blacks rugby has long been built.
Where does the circuit-breaker come from to get this side back on track? Having a media that consistently screams for ‘X factor players’ to be selected rather than looking for Test match-quality combinations muddies the waters. Feeding more and more players into this system who expect to win by only playing expansive rugby and have no idea how to grind out a game will simply compound the obvious issues.
To personify this, Cullen Grace, Luke Jacobson and Dalton Papalii should, for example, be the players developed this cycle for the loose forward trio over Ardie Savea, Akira Ioane and Lachlan Boshier, genuine narrow-channel tough guys.
Let’s not forget the recent golden years of All Blacks rugby, the likes of which I don’t expect to see from any side ever again, were built on the lessons from a series thumping against South Africa in 2009. It’s time to step back and accept the lessons right in front of their eyes now.
To get this side on track there needs to be a true back-to-basics approach – simplify the game, respect the natural boundaries embedded within it and abandon an idea which is long past its due date.
The question is: can the coach that built the current crumbling castle be the one to fix it?
Highlander
Guest
Only just saw this Connor Save that thought for next season
Highlander
Guest
thanks jonny
Highlander
Guest
thanks mm lets hope the boys get it right today eh
Connor33
Guest
Bloody shame. I’d be open to co-authoring a sequel. This year is probably over for the effort that we would put into it, but we could link it to some really good footage on yt next year. Anyway, let me know. I’ve always rated your comments; and I’m sure we’ve had the odd moment, but such is the Roar. Feel free to shoot me a text if you’re so inclined. Again, brilliant article. US Cell Number: 650-714-4822.
moaman
Roar Guru
I see many people picking on Frizzell as a convenient scapegoat. Were he making big busts (nobody else is, either) -the same people would be singing his praises.
moaman
Roar Guru
"In 2018 NZ went to Ireland to win and couldn’t, something that has never happened before. They couldn’t use their phyisicallity or skill to break them down. In years past it would have been cricket score and been men v boys even just looking at the teams coming out of the tunnel." When has there ever been "a cricket score" over an Irish side, at home? Not in my lifetime, and I seriously doubt, ever. 2018 The ABs were almost crawling on their hands and knees by the end of that EOYT.
moaman
Roar Guru
THis really is a top-notch article, Highlander. I have been busier than usual lately and somehow failed to register this was up. Still, it is just as relevant today as it was when you wrote it ;-) It isn't only "the media" screaming for 'x-factor' btw.....plenty of fans are guilty of this too.
jonnyacidseed
Roar Rookie
"Not taking Owen Franks was a criminal call, the sidelining of Ben Smith even more so" "mass rotational decision and the inability to think on their feet" "Having a media that consistently screams for ‘X factor players’ to be selected rather than looking for Test match-quality combinations" Amen Highlander. Great inciteful article.
CPM
Roar Rookie
And after that pool match the bomb squad was assembled, and they went onto achieve great things in the knockout matches.
P2R2
Roar Rookie
It went wrong when they picked the WRONG Coach....
Micko
Roar Rookie
Well kiwis are desperate to tell everyone about their "population" and "playing numbers" to somehow imply they shouldn't win at rugby, and should be viewed as some sort of "underdog", so why not the same scenario with Georgia?
Highlander
Guest
Refereeing is real interesting We just had gardener blow the pea out of it and the week before nick berry couldn’t find a penalty against the wallabies from the 40th to the 77th minute, not sure I have ever seen that before, certainly can’t find another one. Ball on the ground is back lots quicker, see France, which is the design but also offensive penalties seem to be in vogue which kills momentum Gods knows how the coaches plan, but at least the flop on the ball to deliberately kill it has largely gone, thanks for small mercies, I guess. Looking forward to the COVID Cup up there this weekend. Eng v Ire in particular.
Nicholas Bishop
Expert
Nice article H'lander. Thanks! I don't believe the ABs need to abandon the philosophy embedded in NZ rugby as a whole (use the full width of the field), but they do need to find coaches who can make it work at Test level. The new interpretations at the breakdown have worked out in favour of the defence in the vast majority of the matches and this does not suit the ABs at all. They have never had a huge number of 'North-South' players compared to other sides but they have fewer now than they did back in 2015, for sure. Interesting times.
Outside Observer
Guest
I don't know how much dept they have anymore. They have lots of players but most of those are average. The fact that Nonu was not good enough for Toulon yet a star for the Blues shows where the depth is at. Old heads aren't training up the young players. Instead they are in Europe or Japan training up someone else.
Outside Observer
Guest
Georgia has a small rugby pool, but like the PIs are built for 10 man rugby. Like Italy you need all 15 to win regularly at T1.
mzilikazi
Roar Pro
Yes,agree on the comment re Cane's 7 jersey for this year :happy:
Micko
Roar Rookie
1.Ireland missed their once in a century chance of having their best team peak outside of the world cup window rather over an 18-24 month period which includes the world cup (a la England 2003) And with so many sports competing for talent, they need to take the rare opportunities they get. 2. Wales are supposedly a "rugby country" (a Welsh guy I knew said it's more like a 50/50 split with soccer) yet don't perform well enough to challenge the top guys. 3. The point with Georgia is I think rugby might be the major sport for the whole country (they don't seem to do well in soccer, so not sure about it's popularity?) so that would be the advantage they have (similar to NZ) to ascend and compete with the best.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
That's actually a piece I do understand, mate. I think there's an element of spreading the workload , along the lines of what Paul Cully was writing about today, with respect to SR Aoeteroa. There's also an element of finding out a few things about certain guys (Goodhue at 12, Clarke, Frizell, Sotutu, Lomax etc) not thinking they'd be dropping games and putting external pressure on themselves in doing so. Almost like treating this year like a 'free pass', no disrespect I'm sure intended to the opposition, with a view to narrowing the focus next year. Not saying any of that's right, but imo it's kind of understandable. Also, it's a new coaching group, no way they're all fully aligned so quickly. (Although they'll clearly need to get a wriggle on!) Because of some of the things that you've raised, and Nick with respect to the quality of some of the personnel, plus the opposition stepping up, they've been sat on their backside, and the high number of players rotated is suddenly exposed as a flawed strategy.
Dwards
Roar Rookie
Very true
Paulo
Roar Rookie
Ireland and Wales may feel put out to be viewed behind Georgia. Still more than the examples the original point you couldn’t understand mentioned.