The scary stat behind the demise of high scoring in the AFL

By Daz / Roar Guru

Over the weekend, I rewatched the 1989 grand final between Hawthorn and Geelong, perhaps the most famous final of all time and perhaps the best game of all time.

1989: The Final Story is one of the best Australian sporting documentaries of all time as well. Modern grand finals like 2002, 2005 and ’06, 2009, 2010 (the first one), 2012 and 2018 were all glorious spectacles, without a doubt.

With comparative percolating around me, I began to wonder why 1989 holds up over the course of what will be 32 years come September this year. While the obvious speculation of the fact that champion on champion on champion graced the hallowed turf of the MCG, as do modern teams (not of the same quality of course), at the end of the game, that scoreboard sets the game apart.

From that grand final, Adelaide came into the competition, Fitzroy and Brisbane merged to become the Lions, Port Adelaide and Fremantle in the late ’90s came along. Then those teams were ageing and getting their young sides not only competitive, but all but Fremantle had won flags.

With things so settled, Gold Coast and GWS came in and again, the most talented kids in the country were spread further and further. Super teams like the Hawthorn of the ’80s, North Melbourne and West Coast, Brisbane in the early 2000s, Geelong and even Hawthorn from 2011-2015 were outstanding.

With no disrespect to Richmond, their successful period has been more of a testament to the system and style first, talent second. Not that there’s no talent there, but does anyone really think they’d stand up to those super teams?

If there was always 25-30, for example, genuine A-plus players in each draft, when all those new teams came in, the kids would go there to get them up. It’s still happening, more so with Gold Coast of course due to the draft concessions. And this isn’t a bashing of a national league. It’s a beautiful thing having teams across the country.

(Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images )

With the grand finals I spoke about before, 2002 got an aggregate of 141 points (yes, it was wet), 2005 got us 112 in sunshine, 2006 got us 169, 2009 was 148, the 2010 draw was 136, 2012 was 174 and 2018 was 153. These games will be remembered forever but when I look up at 21.18.144 to 21.12.138 for a combined 282 points, it’s a stark contrast.

Now, while many point to rule changes as the fault of a lack of high-scoring AFL, it’s the too thin spreading of talent.

But that is enough speculation, let’s get to some stats. Those 282 points in the 1989 grand final, we don’t expect from grand finals. But what about high scoring games? Both teams scoring triple digits are elite games of AFL with defence not the priority.

But with the landscape being dominated by those defensive structures, how many really happen? I’ve examined the last 20 years of footy and here are the numbers.

Number of games where both teams kicked 100 points or more
2000: 42, two finals (North Melbourne 16.14.110 beat Hawthorn 15.10.100 and Melbourne 23.18.156 beat North Melbourne 17.4.106)
2001: 28
2002: 27, one final (Adelaide 20.10.130 beat Melbourne 17.16.118)
2003: 18
2004: 15
2005: 26
2006: 13
2007: 32, one final (Hawthorn 15.15.105 beat Adelaide 15.12.102)
2008: 26
2009: 17, one final (Brisbane 16.15.111 beat Carlton 15.14.104)
2010: 11
2011: 13
2012: 12
2013: 23
2014: six
2015: six, one final (Adelaide 16.13.109 beat the Western Bulldogs 14.18.102)
2016: 12
2017: seven
2018: seven
2019: four

(Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

The 42 games in 2000 are stunning and such a contrast given the 42nd last time a game happened was May 24, 2014. On that occasion, Collingwood scored 17.7.109 to West Coast’s 15.11.101, thanks to 13 Collingwood goal kickers and nine from the Eagles, with four multiples and Jamie Cripps kicking three.

But what’s the most glaring thing is those finals are iconic. The Crows-Dogs was a genuine pearler at the ‘G (Taylor Walker’s kick to Charlie Cameron is one of the best field kicks you’ll see), Brisbane’s comeback over Carlton was an absolute rip snorter, Lance Franklin’s seven against the Crows at Marvel is a permanent highlight and the Crows’ win over the Demons in 2002 is one of the better semi-finals you’ll ever see.

The point is not one person, expert or losing supporter has complained that the problem in the game was the fact that the defence didn’t hold up. High scoring is quality AFL and defenders are still revered from the 2000s (hello Dustin Fletcher, Matthew Scarlett, Mal Michael and many others).

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The 234 games in the 2000s followed by 101 in the 2010s is a genuine fall from grace and the fact we’ve got 18 teams with talent spread thin is undeniable. As fans we really want more scoring and it may well be in vain but the numbers are frightening.

So instead of being overtly negative, let’s at least hope and debate a solution. It’s unreasonable to think we get can back to the 42 games of the beginning of the millennium but what kind of number can we hope for? The 2013 number of 23 would be absolutely fantastic.

The new rule with the kick-in man on the mark being 15 metres out implies that more space will be afforded to get the ball further away from the goal face. That could help get the territory game more flowing to score.

Could we have an extra premiership point for hitting triple digits, perhaps? While answers are mere speculation at this point, fans are crying out for high scoring AFL. We are better fans and the game is better for it.

The Crowd Says:

2021-02-09T02:18:11+00:00

Jeff

Guest


1977 was an odd Grand Final. North had the stars and were by far the better team on paper but they couldn't kick straight that day. Collingwood remember were up by 27 points at 3/4 time and North had kicked only 4 goals to that point. It was a game of huge momentum swings: 1st & 4th qtrs: North 9.11 to Coll 2.9 2nd & 3rd qtrs: Coll 8.7 to North 0.11 Last 5 minutes with it ending in a draw thanks to Twiggy Dunne's mark was the best part of the match. In the end, North were the best team in 1977 and rightly deserved to win that flag (after a replay) but really only because the Pies choked big time in the last quarter. I put 1977 in the same bracket as say Essendon in 1984. More in the category of the greatest last quarter comebacks in a GF. Not greatest GF matches of all time from start to finish.

2021-02-08T23:40:34+00:00

American Swan

Roar Rookie


You are living in a dream mate! Even the wooden spooners of today would annihilate the 80's Hawks. Today's athletes are significantly bigger, stronger, and faster than the players from the 1980's. The game tactics are vastly more advanced compared to the kick-mark game of the 80's. The way defenses play today, do you think Dunstall would be kicking a bag of 10 goals. Sorry, no. He would struggle to take a mark against a modern team's defense. I truly don't understand the historical fantasy about footy in the 80's. I promise you there were plenty of boring, unattractive games back then as well - you just don't remember those. To me, what makes the game exciting is competitive evenly matched teams. The parity among the teams this past year was amazing. I agree that a fast free-flowing game of footy is attractive to watch, but a close competitive defense duel can be very exciting to watch as well.

2021-02-08T22:25:15+00:00

Michael44

Roar Rookie


We'll never know for sure Kev but I'm pretty sure if 89 Hawk's came up against 2020 Tiges under 80's rules,the Hawks would not know what had hit them. Wonderful teams those Hawthorn teams of the 80's. Possibly the best teams of any teams in history,but Kev,really? Mmmm,the Tiges do like to play to the edge when it comes to the rules and in general they get penalised more than other teams as a result. I could just imagine the freedom the Tiges players would suddenly feel if they could play to 1980's rules. I'm pretty sure it would be a shellacking.

2021-02-08T21:29:59+00:00

Michael44

Roar Rookie


I have just loved the way the Tiges players have gone about things over the past 4 years. All the little things that we were told to do when playing growing up these Tiges players do plus so much more. Champion Data Supercoach Points be damned.

2021-02-08T21:24:37+00:00

Michael44

Roar Rookie


Yeah,my memory of the 89 gf is that the scores didn't get close until the end and that Geel were constantly behind the eight ball in the 2nd half to try and peg back the deficit in time. The gf may be great for other reasons but my memory is that the Hawks to me were mostly comfortably ahead. Just a side note about stats/meaningless stats - the Tiges don't tend to rack up lots of Champ Data Supercoach points. What this tells me is that Champ Data still has a fair way to go in building a points model that actually reflects reality. There may be other teams as well but I'm a Tiges fan so I've only really looked at Richmond so far.

2021-02-08T08:40:37+00:00

Ball Burster

Roar Rookie


I agree with you that the addition of teams has weakened the competition and have diluted the talent. My rule of thumb is that when people who have never played the game (the Irish players, Mike Pike. Mason Cox, etc) can get a gig at the highest level it suggests that there's not enough talent to go around (even though one commenter seems to think population growth is a magc pudding).

2021-02-08T04:04:51+00:00

Footyguy

Guest


Not enough goals For being a football fan The amount of time I go on the phone the amount of time footy is hyped up to be the amount the newspapwer (west australian) , 6pr and TV talks about trying to keep up with who's injured what's the news its very hard keeping up with it all after awhile more goals are required 5 goals in a game in Like watching a movie with a deus ex machina or some lame plot twist or copout ending We want to be satisfied as football fans we want entertainment we want excitement 2 goals from one player is not that exciting But 4 goals is what you want Why can't we see more bags of goals I want to see teams score 75+ points more often

2021-02-08T00:41:28+00:00

Micko

Roar Rookie


What happened in 2013 with that huge oneoff random upsurge?

2021-02-07T23:34:38+00:00

Ukraine Tiger

Roar Rookie


No disrespect to your article but I am thinking there many people that believe that the Tigers of today would easily hold the "super teams" of the past. It is called evolution. I would be very happy to put the Tigers of today up against any team in the past.

2021-02-07T22:24:50+00:00

Trevor

Guest


2005 remains to this day the worst quality game of football I have seen. It's hard to believe that the top 2 sides could both conspire to play that badly on the same day. 1984 and 1989 were far superior quality games to those 2005 and 2006. Indeed 2007 and 2014 were, as well. The quality of the football being much more important to the spectacle than the closeness of the game. Would much rather watch a side play near perfectly and trounce the opposition like in 2007 and 2014 than see two sides play horrible footy, but have a close game.

2021-02-07T11:27:22+00:00

sven

Roar Rookie


nah mate, everyone knows, nowadays the talent pool is so diluted, the players so soft, hell back in the day there were shirtfronts, they had no interchange & they all got on the piss the night before & still fired up for the game (& then got on the piss again straight after the game), the forwards had 5 blokes hanging off them all chopping the arms & they still took the grab yada yada yada .....

2021-02-07T11:02:02+00:00

Aransan

Roar Rookie


As a retired mathematician I have noticed over the years that the less people know about arithmetic, the more confidence they have in numbers.

2021-02-07T09:42:33+00:00

J.T. Delacroix

Guest


I think Kev also conveniently forgets that his vastly superior teams of yesteryear wouldn’t have as much possession in the first place, to do as they please, if they were playing today. It’s far more intense now, on every level.

2021-02-07T08:16:28+00:00

PeteB

Roar Rookie


Yep it was the kicking and marking skills that we really loved about our game. Sadly it’s just become more and more about counting possessions and other peripheral statistics

2021-02-07T08:05:30+00:00

Micko

Roar Rookie


I say to people in 20 years time who the heck is going to talk about players like Mat Priddis or Dane Swan...both Brownlow medalists? The bizarre obsession with "possessions" just baffles me. Give me Tim Kelly or Chris Judd getting 16 great possessions any day as opposed to Dane Swan, Mat Priddis, Greg Williams etc getting 40 forgettable possessions.

2021-02-07T07:50:54+00:00

Micko

Roar Rookie


Nail meet hammer Pete. :thumbup: In a sport with no offside rules or mandated zoning, subs changed to more subs, then players using unlimited interchange (or still far too much interchange) in a (now) fully pro sport means an ugly all in scrap for the ball with it's associated congestion.

2021-02-07T07:36:45+00:00

PeteB

Roar Rookie


I think ultimately we want less congestion and more free flowing footy. The scoring is just a side effect of that. I’ve never been a fan of the nine point goal in the pre-season games. It hasn’t made those games any better, just made reading the scoreboard more complicated and confusing.

2021-02-07T07:35:45+00:00

sven

Roar Rookie


"Hawthorn would use the boundary line as a legitimate defensive skill and ploy to stifle Richmond’s modern flooding style game" ... well there ya go, someone tell chris scott & all the other coaches theyve been going about it all wrong, kevs got the blueprint for beating those tiges ... nice little fantasy story there ...

2021-02-07T07:29:31+00:00

PeteB

Roar Rookie


Yep the game wasn’t designed for the level of fitness and athleticism of today’s players and the four man interchange has added to the problem. A situation that needs to be addressed.

2021-02-07T03:49:19+00:00

Sherg

Roar Rookie


Absolutely concur re 89 GF. Post game revision skews truth of what happened that day . Your point on recent Richmond success is spot on also . Lazy analysis leads to poor conclusions .

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