Super Rugby AU kick-off is just four days away. As always, we’ll be running our eyes over each Australian side’s chances, starting today with the Waratahs.
If you thought the Tahs ran out an inexperienced side in the second half of 2020 (and they did), you ain’t seen nothing yet. With a youth-laden squad named for 2021, development is very much the order of the day.
Squad
For the second year in a row, the Waratahs have been hit hardest by off-season player movement. Michael Hooper is with Toyota Verblitz for a six-month sabbatical, Ned Hanigan has inked a year-long deal to play in the Japanese Top League, and Rob Simmons is on London Irish’s books now.
With Karmichael Hunt not re-signed and Tom Robertson moving to the Force, there’s a dearth of veteran heads in sky blue this season.
There’s been little in the way of high-profile replacements. The lifeline handed to talented back Izaia Perese is the most notable signing the Tahs have made, while Jack Whetton, Sam Caird and Sam Wykes have been brought in to cover the departures at lock.
Scrumhalf Jake Gordon has taken over as captain and he, along with Jack Dempsey, will have to provide most of the on-field leadership for a young team.
Forwards
Robbie Abel, Angus Bell, Cam Caird, Joe Cotton, Jack Dempsey, Max Douglas, Tetera Faulkner, Charlie Gamble, Will Harris, Tom Horton, Harry Johnson-Holmes, Dave Porecki, Hugh Sinclair, Lachie Swinton, Chris Talakai, Alefosio Tatola, Tiaan Tauakipulu, Carlo Tizzano, Jack Whetton, Jeremy Williams, Sam Wykes
Backs
Ben Donaldson, Tane Edmed, Lalakai Foketi, Jake Gordon, Jack Grant, Will Harrison, Jack Maddocks, Tepai Moeroa, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Alex Newsome, Izaia Perese, James Ramm, Tristan Reilly, Henry Robertson, Joey Walton
Captain: Jake Gordon
Coach: Rob Penney
Rob Penney. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Strengths
They might be light on experience, but the flipside of that coin is the Tahs have some extremely promising youngsters on their roster.
In Angus Bell, Will Harrison and Joey Walton they have a trio of Junior Wallabies who were excellent in their first seasons of professional rugby, while under 20s teammates Mark Nawaqanitawase and Will Harris also showed promise, and Lachie Swinton joined Bell in making his Test debut last year.
Bell’s athleticism around the ground for a front-rower was particularly impressive – and translated well to the international arena – and his scrum work is improving.
Walton looks to have all the makings of a top-class outside centre: a good reader of the play in defence and dangerous with ball in hand, he will only benefit from a full season with the 13 on his back.
Harrison had the best season of the three last year. Thrust in at flyhalf following Bernard Foley’s departure at the end of 2019, the 21-year-old orchestrated the Waratahs’ attack quite capably, even when playing behind a beaten pack.
He also established himself as the best place-kicker in Australia following the competition restart, missing just three of his 40 attempts from the tee in Super Rugby AU.
It was due in no small part to Harrison that the Waratahs developed into one of the better attacking sides last year, finishing second in the competition for points scored. And with the likes of Jack Maddocks, James Ramm and Perese joining Harrison and Walton in the backline, there’s ample attacking talent out wide.
The way they scored those points, though, made them something of an outlier, with Rob Penney’s charges more than happy to take the three points from Harrison’s boot whenever they were on offer.
Only the Reds produced a higher regular-season tally during the regular season than the Tahs, yet they were far from being the most prolific try-scorers.
A team that struggles to find the tryline? Perhaps, but a better way to look at it would be a side who both convert their fives into sevens and are entirely comfortable keeping the scoreboard ticking over in threes – a sensible way to play that Wallabies fans were bemoaning the lack of last year.
While pre-season talk of up-tempo, free-flowing attacking play may see the Tahs cross the chalk more frequently this year, having a trusty point-scoring avenue in Harrison’s boot is valuable, and moreso now given that Rob Simmons and Ned Hanigan’s departures will make kicking for touch less reliable.
(Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)
Weaknesses
It follows that a team full of young talent is going to lack experience. The Waratahs will excite this year, and will only progress further in the following seasons, but the absence of savvy veterans will likely cost them, particularly in close games.
Similarly, if a team had a good attack yet missed out on the finals, it’s only natural that their defence is cause for concern. The Tahs conceded more points than any team in Super Rugby AU aside from the Force, leaking a worrisome 24 per game. That isn’t in the recipe book for a successful season, and Michael Hooper’s departure will make improving on that side of the ball only more difficult.
The lineout is also an area of concern, again partly due to squad changes. A real strength of the Waratahs’ last year, they’ll have to find a way for it to function without 2020’s first-choice lock pairing of Simmons and Hanigan.
That duo were excellent in both controlling ball from the set-piece and disrupting opposition throws, to the point their efforts almost helped NSW to a shock win over the Brumbies in Round 3.
New signing Jack Whetton will bring with him some physicality, and fellow Kiwi import Sam Caird will add height to the lineout.
The latter, however, has never played a Super Rugby game despite spending three years with the Chiefs and Blues, and while Whetton is more experienced, a new-look second row is going to bring with it growing pains and is ultimately going to be a downgrade on the pair of Wallabies.
Jack Dempsey. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Key player: Jake Gordon
With former skippers Hooper and Simmons gone, Jake Gordon was the obvious choice to take over as New South Wales captain for 2021.
After missing a good chunk of last season through injury, the Tahs’ attack looked significantly more dangerous with their first-choice halfback on the field, and he was the main driving force behind their incredible 45-12 win over the Reds in Round 6 with his first-half hat-trick.
In fact, the difference between NSW with Gordon wearing the number nine and without him was marked: one win from four without him in the starting XV, and three from four with him in there.
Even in their lone trial against the Reds this year, Rob Penney’s charges were sharper once their captain was brought on, and he further emphasised his try-scoring threat with a double.
Gordon’s running game has always been strong and his kicking game was what won him four Wallabies caps last year, but it’s two other areas of his game which will be central to the Waratahs’ success this year: passing and leadership.
The 27-year-old is still prone to the odd sloppy pass, a hindrance that his side could well do without in a year when they need everything to go right.
As for leadership, Gordon captained a grand total of one professional rugby match before the trial against the Reds, making him an unknown quantity as a skipper. He looks to have what it takes – he’s spoken well and with confidence in the lead-up to the season – but we won’t know for sure until the competition is well underway.
If he proves adept at leading this young team, it’ll go some way to pushing the Waratahs beyond their pre-season expectations.
Jake Gordon. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
The verdict
If last season was a development year for the Waratahs, 2021 will be even more so. There’s talent aplenty in this playing group, and it won’t be too long before they find themselves at the right end of the standings, but at the moment they lack the experience and know-how to win consistently. Without much depth, an injury to a key player would be catastrophic.
They have the potential to jump up the standings and make a push for the finals, but defensive frailties and the departure of key players – plus the heavy recruitment we’ve seen out west – means a last-placed finish looks most likely.
Prediction: fifth
Terry Tavita
Roar Pro
so many PI rugby players in sydney yet so few get picked for the tahs..no wonder why tahs have such poor form..
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
It's hard to think of something positive Gibson did for the Tahs. Cheika was great for that one year and then left us with an aging list and a hopeless coach who did nothing to regenerate it. The management group above Gibson was obviously part of the problem. Frankly, that there are none of them still around is a very good thing. I chatted about Penney with a mad Munster mate and he really liked him. Players liked him, they played attractive rugby and he had the vision to grow the club. He's not so upbeat about van Graan and Larkham whom he credits with moving them back to the old kick and smash rugby from before Penney, acknowledging their playing talent isn't what it was.
stillmissit
Roar Guru
Depends on how fit Penny can get them. A young inexperienced team without an outstanding level of fitness will always succumb to a team with experience. The best chance Penny has is to get them super fit and see what they can do. Harrison is the best young 5/8 in the country in my book and I am hoping he can lead the young backs into a winning team. Assuming the forwards can deliver 50/50 ball.
Tight-Head
Roar Rookie
By the same token though keeping the first choice 10 fit has been a big strength - one that the tahs desperately need to continue with!
jeznez
Roar Guru
Penney has already shown he's much more willing to give guys a chance. Ben Donaldson has 4 caps for the Waratahs already, despite Harrison being the clear number 1 last year. I think that's more than Mason managed despite debuting for the Tahs under Gibson in 2017.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
Fair enough Jez, I think they're alright backups but that there's a decent gap between them and Harrison at the moment. If they get developed nicely as you suggest (and putting time and on-field minutes into backup tens hasn't exactly been one of the Tahs' strengths in years gone by) then they'll have a nice cohort of playmakers to call on if needed.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
That's it, Jez. Just because a couple of guys excelled in year one of their pro careers doesn't mean that's the norm - far from it. Mark has the tools to develop into a strong player, he just needs some time to make it happen.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Weasonable... wheelly weasonable! :thumbup:
Paul D
Roar Rookie
He only started playing Rugby something like 2 years ago!
jeznez
Roar Guru
G'day Dan. I agree with issues if Gordon goes down - and that is saying something when there were times last year I wanted him dropped for McDonald. With regards to Harrison, he looks our clear first choice after the trial but that said I don't think I'd trade our back up 10s for those anywhere else. Edmed and Donaldson are guys I want the Tahs to continue to invest in and I'm happier with them compared to older guys like Lance/Hegarty or the other younger options like Pasitoa, Kuenzle, Gordon, McGregor, McIntyre or Creighton. I even prefer them (as back up 10's) to the utility options in Hodge and Stewart (would love guys like those for 12 though).
jeznez
Roar Guru
I feel like Mark is another season away from coming good. He needs time to build his strength and to keep working on his defence. Back him to make it though, he’s got an exceptional skill set and some good coaches to guide him.
jeznez
Roar Guru
I reckon fourth Chook. I think we can beat those Wascally Wessells Webels.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Prediction: fifth... ah, ffs! :laughing:
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
No, not no chance. I think 3-5 on the ladder will be fairly close, and you could make a decent enough argument that the Tahs will scrape through into third. I just think the argument that they'll finish last is more compelling.
jameswm
Roar Guru
Maybe not no chance, but it's hard to see them beating the Brumbies or Reds (with Tupou). The Rebels should beat them, but they tend to underperform.
jameswm
Roar Guru
I didn't say as good, or strong. But Super standard yes. We wouldn't be discussing whether or not they are super standard if they had some of those guys you mentioned around them. I'm saying they are Super standard players, but we have a lot of young perhaps lower end Super standard players at the same time. Look at the starters - locks aside, definitely Super standard and have shown it. Just all developing together. As to Wallaby players - I think a few will make the 23. Swinton has started (as has Dempsey) and Gordon is in the mix to start (we aren't very clear at half back), but you're right that's about it. Bell, Harrison, Maddocks and even Ramm and Dempsey are a chance to make the bench. Too soon probably for Walton and Horton.
ScottD
Roar Guru
I don't subscribe to the view that the TAHs are no possibility of winning this competition. I think it will be hard but they have a talented (if young) squad that has a shot I think. Having said that I am hopeful that the Force will smash them utterly :)
Markus
Roar Rookie
The big issue looking at that list is the complete lack of succession planning since 2014 (I would argue longer but will leave it at that). It was clear that so many of the squad would finish up after the 2019 RWC, and while it is impossible to fully make up the experience being lost, the Tahs still did not have replacements ready for any of Kepu (relied on journeyman Faulkner and pushing HJH to TH), Latu, Foley (never developed Mason), Beale (never developed Simone, who has since debuted for the Wallabies through the Brumbies), or even Hunt or Simmons despite not having developed either in the first place. For Folau they were lucky that Jack Maddocks became available when he did to lessen the impact, and for Phipps that his form had dropped so much that he had already lost the starting role by the time he departed.
Bluesfan
Do you think so? They came 4th in a 5 team comp last year and if anything squad has being further weakened by departures (Hooper, Simmons, Hunt - post end of last years comp). Given the Forces recruitment of assorted Arg players etc imagine that they are favorites for wooden spoon. And that's effectively playing in a comp, that is probably not as strong as the Kiwi one. Below are some of the players who left post RWC and 2020: Sekope Kepu, Tolu Latu, Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, , Curtis Rona, Israel Folau, Kurtley Beale, Michael Hooper , T Robertson, Rob Simmons, K Hunt And at the end of this season Dempsey is off. So as it stands probably not a single Waratah would be starting for the Wallabies, which is shocking when you consider some of the past Waratah teams. Still will be proven right or wrong around my comments by results on the field and hopefully I'm proven wrong as it's not good for Oz rugby to have a Waratahs team this weak/inexperienced (in my view).
Cheika_Mate
Roar Rookie
The Tahs are paying for years of mismanagement and are attempting to build a nest egg thus running this team on fumes $. In hindsight it may not be a bad idea they will need a war chest in a few years time to pay and keep some of these rising stars. Pressure is on though, if they want the crowds back they need to win starting this weekend.