Who's in danger of falling out of the top eight in 2021?

The AFL season continues to draw closer, which means it’s time for another article in our preview series.

I’ve already looked at last year’s bottom four in part one, while part two looked at the rest of 2020’s non-finalists.

Today, we take a look at the sides that finished between fifth and eighth and work out who’s most likely to step up and who’s most likely to drop out.

This segment of the ladder changes very frequently from year to year – and not in the manner you’d expect. Over the last five seasons, only eight of the 20 total non-top four finalists have finished in the same range again.

However, only three of the 12 who moved out of fifth to eighth moved up in the top four – three quarters of movers actually missed finals altogether.

In 2017, 2018 and 2019, one non-top four finalist moved up, one stayed where they are and two dropped out and I think we’ll have the same makeup this season.

So, with that in mind, let’s see how 2021 will pan out.

West Coast Eagles

5th, 12-5, 117.0%
Ins: Zac Langdon (GWS), Alex Witherden (BL), Luke Edwards, Isiah Winder, Zane Trew (draft)
Outs: Tom Hickey (SYD), Will Schofield (ret.), Hamish Brayshaw, Lewis Jetta, Mitch O’Neill, Nic Reid, Anthony Treacy, Francis Watson (del.)

I’m worried about the Eagles coming into 2021.

They haven’t lost anyone major and they haven’t missed out on a trade they should’ve made, but what they’ve lacked for two seasons is a premiership-calibre killer instinct.

The final-round loss to Hawthorn at the end of 2019, the Round 2 loss to Gold Coast and the home elimination final loss to Collingwood last season. Every team has bad days, but a worryingly large gulf – bigger than that of any contender – between West Coast’s best and worst footy has crept in over the last two years.

Since the 2018 flag, the Eagles have played ten matches against top four sides. They’ve won two, with the eight losses coming at an average of 29 points. They also had the worst record away from home of any of last year’s finalists – which is particularly damning given a lot of their ‘away’ matches were actually played at neutral venues.

Tim Kelly played well individually, but it’s hard to argue West Coast’s midfield looked extraordinarily better than it did without him.

Hardly the resume of a team primed for a crack at the top four.

We’ve been treated to several dynasties since the turn of the millennium that we often forget the fates of many non-consecutive premiers and runners-up – and history suggests, unless you’re Chris Scott-era Geelong, you don’t stay near the top for very long without winning flags.

I like the players the Eagles have coming through the system, but I can’t shake the feeling they’re in for something of a disjointed year as older players fall out of form and younger players aren’t quite ready to pick up the slack – and I think it could result in a surprise ninth-ish finish.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

St Kilda

6th, 10-7, 116.2%
Ins: Brad Crouch (ADE), James Frawley (HAW), Jack Higgins (RCH), Shaun McKernan (ESS), Mason Wood (NM), Matthew McLeod-Allison, Tom Highmore, Paul Hunter (draft)
Outs: Nick Hind (ESS), Nathan Brown (ret.), Ryan Abbott, Logan Austin, Jack Bell, Doulton Langlands, Jonathon Marsh, Jack Mayo, Matthew Parker, Ed Phillips, Shane Savage (del.)

A popular pick by many to slide, I actually really like what the Saints have done over the offseason.

Dan Butler and Zak Jones proved to be two of the smartest acquisitions of last season and were a huge reason why they transformed from a below-average clearance team who couldn’t score into one of the highest-scoring teams in 2020.

In fact, the Saints finished fourth in the AFL for scoring last season despite averaging fewer inside 50s per game than their opponent – that’s efficiency.

Now they’ve got Jack Higgins to add another weapon to the forward arsenal, while Brad Crouch and the St Kilda midfield should form a very beneficial relationship.

Yes, Crouch gets his knocks for being an accumulator and having a penchant for turnovers – but I think there’s more to it. If you check his career stats, his disposal efficiency didn’t become an issue in 2019 – when he returned from a year off with groin injuries to find the all-conquering Crows team he used to play for was now garbage.

I’m confident playing in a much better side where he doesn’t need to be numero uno in the engine room will see him reach a new level and help power the Saints to a higher finish this year.

(Photo by Matt Roberts/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Western Bulldogs

7th, 10-7, 106.7%
Ins: Mitch Hannan (MEL), Stefan Martin (BL), Adam Treloar (COL), Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Dominic Bedendo, Lachlan McNeil, Anthony Scott (draft)
Outs: Lachie Young (NM), Tory Dickson (ret.), Billy Gowers, Fergus Greene, Brad Lynch, Callum Porter, Matt Suckling, Jackson Trengove (del.)

The reigning trade period premiers have their sights set on big improvement in 2021 after two consecutive elimination final exits.

Adam Treloar adds another layer to a midfield already bursting at the seams with A-grade talent, Stefan Martin mercifully gives them a competent option in the ruck and Mitch Hannan could be a useful option up forward.

Then, there’s the generational talent – and number one draft pick – in Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.

There’s no denying the Doggies have a great list that, on paper, should be a top four side – but there are three things that have me a little cautious.

First is the key positions. Josh Bruce’s first season with the Dogs was a disaster and it’d be a lot to ask of Aaron Naughton or Ugle-Hagan to step up so soon. They weren’t much better down back either and Luke Beveridge’s brief trial of Alex Keath up forward was one of the strangest things I’ve seen.

Second is the defensive attitude. I wrote about it twice last season but, in case you’ve forgotten, GPS data on the Bulldogs’ running speed was damning last year – they ran much slower without the ball than they did with it far too often in 2020 and there’s no way they’re contending until this is sorted out.

Third is the AFL’s ridiculous rule change for 2021, which could affect them more than most other clubs. The Dogs have struggled against high-marking game styles for a while now, with the second and third quarters of last year’s elimination final loss a key example – they had no answers to St Kilda’s kicking game. They’re not a tall team and they rely on pressure, turnovers and rebound run and carry – so if the new laws reduce turnovers by foot, this could hurt a lot.

For now, I’ve got them finishing around fifth and winning their first final.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Collingwood

8th, 9-7-1, 109.5%
Ins: Olver Henry, Finlay Macrae, Reef McInnes, Caleb Poulter, Liam McMahon, Beau McCreery, Jack Ginnivan, Isaac Chugg
Outs: Atu Bosenavulagi, Jaidyn Stephenson (NM), Tom Phillips (HAW), Adam Treloar (WB), Dayne Beams, Lynden Dunn, Tom Langdon, Ben Reid, Travis Varcoe (ret.), Flynn Appleby, Tim Broomhead, Matthew Scharenberg, Rupert Wills (del.)

We’ve seen stranger things before – and there’s no doubt the playing group will be hell-bent on proving the doubters wrong – but I can’t see the Pies featuring in finals again this season.

As spirited as their elimination final win was, they scraped into the top eight by two premiership points and have lost a midfielder who finished first in disposals, contested possessions and clearances (per game) and second in inside 50s, as well as one of their leading goalkickers.

The Magpies were by far the lowest-scoring finalist last season – finishing 13th while the other seven finalists occupied the top seven. Their maniacal approach to possession and defence just doesn’t cut it in today’s game and I’m quite confident in picking them to make way for either the Demons, Giants or Blues come September.

(Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)