All downhill from here: The Super Rugby AU run home

We’re at the part of the season, with four rounds to play, where wins are more important than ever and the Super Rugby AU table confirms the race we all suspected to be true at the start of the year.

It’s a race in two for top spot, with the Queensland Reds on 23 points almost one full win clear of the Brumbies on 20. With five and four wins respectively, they’re battling it out to see who hosts the Final, and who hosts the second versus third Qualifier.

Below them, the Melbourne Rebels on 10 points are one full win ahead of the Western Force on six, and these two are essentially playing for third place.

Maximum points available is a measure I’ve kept an eye on the last few years, and it’s illustrative again. The Reds remain in the box seat for the minor premiership, with a maximum of 38 points available to them at this point.

The Brumbies can get to 35 points, but importantly, if they do get to 35, then the Reds won’t get to 38, given the two teams will meet again in Round 8.

The Rebels can reach 30 points, the Force can still finish with 21 points, and though the Waratahs can still get to a maximum of 16 points from their last three games, I’m not sure even friends and family would be overly confident they can.

I’ll let the run home paint the picture of the five teams in 2021.

Having copped another thumping at the hands of Queensland this weekend just gone, the Waratahs must front up for another dose of the Brumbies running through them on Friday night at the SCG.

The bye in Round 8 will be of little to no help, which leaves them with the Western Force in Perth in Round 9, and the Rebels at Bankwest in the final round as their best chances of an upset win. But neither are certain. You might have given them a chance of toppling the Force in Sydney this late in the season, but the game being in Perth makes the task all the harder.

And the Rebels will quite likely be playing for third place by Round 10, so it’s hard to see them letting anything slip by then, either.

“You’d hate to see the Waratahs go through the season winless,” I originally wrote to start this paragraph, but after the NSW Rugby board skewered Rob Penney on Sunday night, I can’t rightly hold that hopeful sentiment any longer. It’s rough on the players, but the Waratahs deserve everything they get for rest of 2021.

Penney for your thoughts, Rob? (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Everything.

Tim Sampson said after the loss to the Brumbies that it was one of those frustrating games where you really wish you could get straight back on the park to rectify. Having this weekend with the bye doesn’t help that cause.

They’re in Melbourne to face the Rebels in Round 8, and then finish with two home games against the Waratahs and Reds to finish the regular season. The reality is the Force need three wins from here to claim third spot, which means they’re in knockout rugby mode for the next five weeks.

The Rebels are finally back in Melbourne, with a run of three straight home games they’ve been waiting all season for. But the three home games are anything but easy.

They host Queensland on Saturday, the Force the following Friday night, and then the Brumbies on the Sunday afternoon in Round 9. They finish the regular season with a trip to take on the Waratahs, by which point they’ll know exactly what they need to do for the finals hopes.

The only team with four games to play, the Rebels have an obvious advantage over the rest of the field. If they could win two of those three home games over the next three weeks, they’d be thrilled. Win all three and they’ll give themselves a chance of hosting the playoff final.

The Brumbies will now be eyeing off the Waratahs on Friday night as a chance to narrow the gap on the Reds, and particularly if the Rebels could then do them a massive favour on Saturday night.

The Brumbies are on the road for the rest of the season now, and will only play in Canberra again in either the second versus third playoff, or in the Final. After the Waratahs in Sydney, they head to Brisbane for the match that will likely decide top spot, and then face a tough final game in Melbourne against the Rebels.

They then have a bye in Round 10 – which means if they happen to do enough to finish in top spot, they will have two weeks off before the Final. One week is often handy, but two weeks? That will be interesting.

Len Ikitau (centre) with Andy Muirhead and Rob Valetini. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Queensland have the kind of run that on paper looks tough, but in reality would have Brad Thorn confident they’ll be in really good shape for the finals if they get through relatively unscathed.

They start with the Rebels in Melbourne this weekend, then host the Brumbies in Brisbane, and have a perfectly placed bye in Round 9. They had the bye in Round 9 last season as well, and then came out and comfortably beat the Brumbies three tries to one in the last round before the finals, before repeating the dose on the Rebels in the playoff game.

They then finish with the Western Force in Perth in Round 10, which coming the same week the Brumbies have the bye, they’ll be in full control of their topping the table destiny.

It all looms as a really interesting run home, and I’ll be genuinely interested to see how well the Reds and Brumbies maintain their form at the top, and whether the gap between them and the Rebels (and Force, to an extent) remains.

Equally, we’ve been waiting for both of them to show it, and there is no better time for the Rebels and Force to deliver on the promising patches they’ve produced so far this season.

Which means we need to strap in for the downhill run. I can’t help but think there’s a bump or two along the way.