The NRL’s mantra that any team can win on any given day is no more with favourites now successful in almost 75 per cent of matches since the start of the 2020 season.
And it all adds up to making the 2021 competition one of the most lopsided in memory, with the top five already forming a clear breakaway as the only sides with positive for-and-against records.
Of the 36 matches played between top-five teams and the rest of the NRL this season, St George Illawarra’s round-five win over Parramatta is the only victory by a side over one of the elite group.
But it is the winning data that shows how much more predictable the competition has become.
According to figures from the TAB, there have been just 21 upsets in 80 NRL games this year.
Favourites have won 73.75 per cent of games, after also being successful 74.26 per cent of the time in 2020.
That is well up on a strike-rate of 61.69 per cent from 2018.
Worryingly for the NRL, the AFL is now the far more unpredictable of the two codes.
Underdogs are winning more often with the AFL favourites’ striking at 69.44 per cent, well down on 77.54 at the introduction of an 18th team in 2012.
What’s causing the NRL’s predictability is another issue.
Rightfully, league bosses are quick to point out that roster management is at the core of it.
But it can’t be ignored that the significant shift in favourites winning and blowout margins has coincided with the introduction of set restarts and a quicker game.
“There’s no doubt that the way the rules changed the game last year it stopped sides from squeezing and slowing the game up,” Warriors coach Nathan Brown said.
“We all agree it’s for the better of the game. It allows all these smaller players who are rugby league players to get an opportunity.
“But you can certainly see the gap when things get out of control.”
The average winning margin this season is the highest in the NRL-era at 17.96, while 59 per cent of games are decided by 13 or more points.
With momentum so hard to turn games, Brown believes the changes have made defence more important and the benefits of long-term roster huge.
“Those sides defend well and to help get momentum back you need to be able to stop tries,” Brown said.
“They’ve got pretty settled rosters, pretty settled coaching staff.”
What it inadvertently caused is two separate competitions, with both Gold Coast and Cronulla suggesting games against teams outside the top five have become even more important in the past week.
PERCENTAGE OF NRL FAVOURITES WINNING
2021: 73.75
2020: 74.26
2019: 66.42
2018: 61.69
2017: 66.17
2016: 70.15
2015: 60.95
2014: 62.69
2013: 68.16
2012: 64.93
PERCENTAGE OF AFL FAVOURITES WINNING
2021: 69.44
2020: 71.60
2019: 66.67
2018: 70.77
2017: 65.94
2016: 71.01
2015: 70.87
2014: 71.26
2013: 74.15
2012: 77.54
Source: TAB
The Barry
Roar Guru
After the Broncos win against the Roosters we’re now at 36 from 38 for the top 5 v the rest. There’s not a season that’s even been close to that stat I think it’s very predictable 30+ margins have tripled from what we normally see 20+ margins have doubled Even with these stats about upsets, a lot of these are two pretty evenly matched teams, one just happens to be slightly favoured bu the bookies I don’t think those are true ‘upsets’ in the nature of the Broncs beating the Roosters By my reckoning we’ve only had 9-10 fair dinkum upsets this season
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Good to see you back Mate. Welcome.
Nat
Roar Guru
Ha! Yeah how long have we been saying the Storm will come off? Not sure I would predict as long as you, 5yrs at a stretch. It's not only the quality young halves but there's a transition of the older guys as well.
Joey
Guest
Other answers .. a zillion to 1 , and no thanks we’re good
Joey
Guest
Panthers Panthers Panthers Storm Eels
Jamie Hopoate
Guest
1,2,3,4,5 kick repeat is predictable?? No way!!
mushi
Roar Guru
Well the change was definitely not painless with the injury increase. The blow outs will even out; but prior to the last week the data on injuries was borderline criminal. Hopefully we see the same number of binnings and subsequent rests to offset.
Jason
Roar Rookie
Fingers crossed the ex-Storm CEO can bring some of that magic over with him to Brisbane :) Surely our cycle of sucking is due to end.
Walter Black
Guest
The game does seem to have become more polarised this year but is this simply making it a statistical outlier or has the game itself changed ? I think the 6 again rule is catching out those teams who didn't do their homework at training and it is also catching out the older, bigger more physical players. The double whammy is that it is also these guys that seem to throw the most head high tackles. Then we seem to have a whole bunch of clubs that are going through a rebuild, have new coaches, have just sacked their coaches far more than normal. Speed has suddenly become king and a whole heap of first graders are now just second rate. Just imagine if this had happened 5 years back, it would have brought Paul Gallen's career to a studdering halt. Other less well known players are suffering the same issue. But clubs will learn and scouts will start recruiting differently. I reckon this is a short term problem.
Zavjalova
Roar Rookie
I've tipped 8 out of 8 a couple of times now this year alone. Hasn't happened to me in years
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
So prior to 2012 when the favorites in the AFL got up 77.54% of the time it must have been a disaster for that game? I can't recall that game ever struggling for fans. The higher the top teams fly the sweeter a victory against them is and at times when their season goes wobbly , it's also better. Conversely when a couple of plodders get going it's better than ever. I'm sure the QLD 2020 SOO win was better than a normal win.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Nat, that may happen with the Panthers but the Storm and Roosters are top 4 sides for the next 6 to 10 years ( career ending injuries not withstanding) . Only some real change in player accounting will change that.
Walter Black
Guest
If this were remotely true then give me the outcome of the following matches Melbourne v Panthers Roosters v Panthers Eels v Panthers Eels v Melbourne Eels v Roosters What odds would you give against the Broncos winning a premiership in the next 5 years ? need I go on ? The problem is that we have a lot of basket case teams this year (for various reasons) that are just cannon fodder for the above. The onus is on those clubs to get better and they will..
G Len N
Roar Rookie
Lies, damn lies and statistics.
Steven Harris
Pfft Super Rugby 5 zip to kiwi teams now that’s predictable.S.O.O is about to start then it gets tricky.
Wayne Turner
Guest
And what an unpredictable final series that was, including the unexpected GF of Tigers vs Cowboys. No one of sound mind would have predicted a Wests Tigers 2005 Premiers before the season started.
Wayne Turner
Guest
I think it has,and many factors have contributed:- *Yes,some clubs are ran better than others.But other factors contribute too... *Inconsistent refs with the rule changes making them worse.Influencing games too much,and unconsciously favouring the top team. *The salary cap,or to be exact 3rd party deals,and other salary cap exemptions, favour some clubs over others. Check out this link,if your club has the contacts (power and influence),I can think of many ways you can attract/keep players,pay unders,and the player will be more than compensated outside the cap.Regardless of what these rules claim. Too many exclusions from the salary cap and 3rd party deals have ruined any chance of the comp being unpredictable/closer.The only salary exclusion that should be worth alot more,is for juniors.To encourage clubs,to produce juniors,and more of them.Yes,that will favour some clubs over others Well,those that just buy buy buy.Should start/focus on producing juniors. https://www.nrl.com/operations/integrity/salary-cap/
Thought so
Guest
So basically rugby league dominates AFL over any sort of decent sample. Thanks for the confirmation.
Wayne Turner
Guest
Except you forgot to include,another contributing factor:- Refs are inconsistent,and often favour certain teams more than others.From who is considered the better team,and/or home ground crowd.Among,other factors.Sorry,but the top teams aren't that much more disciplined than the others.The refs (Unconsciously biased ) towards the seen top teams,happens alot.Made even worse now by the 6 again rules,where the refs are not held to account for their decision.Whether,it is to give,or not give a 6 again.Then,on what tackle,and where abouts on the field makes a huge difference. Add,to the lack of consistency,that started on head highs already eg: Kaufisi from the Storm getting away with a head high vs the Dragons - No sin bin. Yet a higher standard was applied to the Dragons. Yes all teams play under the same rules,but it's clear they are applied differently depending on what team you are. All teams are equal,but some are more equal than others..
JGK
Roar Guru
Low percentage of favourites winning, top 8 teams separated by 2 points, thrilling finals matches, no six again and scrums from touch finders, it was the last time that the Dragons didn't suck.