Like many, I’ve been watching the Road to the Ashes series hosted by Brendon Julian and Mark Waugh.
On a recent episode, former Australian spinner Shane Warne and former England captain Michael Vaughan were on to talk about England’s chances in the coming Ashes series.
And the point was made that England don’t have the batting line-up to contend against Australia. Even Travis Head, who was recently dropped from the Australian side and lost his Cricket Australia contract, has a higher batting average than every English batsman apart from Joe Root.
Another point made was that England don’t have the right tactics, firstly the rotation policy, in that England decided not to pick a team and stick with it and rather give players a rest (often a whole series) to try and give some new talent a go.
It clearly didn’t work, as they lost to both New Zealand and India in consecutive series. But at the same time, Australia decided to stick with relatively the same team in the recent India series and ended up losing that 2-1.
They also criticised the decision not to play a spinner in the New Zealand series. This I disagree with, as New Zealand themselves didn’t bowl a single over of spin in the World Test Championship final played in similar conditions, instead playing five seamers, with India only playing three.
Although, I agree that Joe Root shouldn’t have bowled 10-15 overs an innings as a part-timer. He’s much better being the bowling change and bowling four overs an innings. Their fast-bowling attack is good enough to bowl out the innings.
So, what do England need to give themselves a chance of winning this coming Ashes series?
Well, firstly, they need to find about five new batsmen, as Root is currently the only one up to standard.
Even Ben Stokes isn’t up to standard in terms of his average but can give you some handy overs with the ball and is a match-winner (let’s not go there!).
Ben Stokes (Photo by Surjeet Yadav/Getty Images)
The chances of five batsmen who will average around 40 popping up within the next five months are very slim.
Everyone talks about Zak Crawley as a player who can average 45 and we “just have to wait”. But he has a woeful average of 29, which becomes 19 if you take out his 267 against an average Pakistan team.
The upcoming series against India who will probably have a similar bowling line-up (four seamers, one spinner), and is probably his last chance.
The batsman I’m keeping my eye on is Jake Libby from Worcestershire County. He’s averaging 64 in this current County season and has faced more balls than anyone at 137 balls per dismissal.
Here’s why that is a major asset.
In terms of the bowling, Jack Leach is a lock. He has better stats than Nathan Lyon and is a very consistent bowler.
Jofra Archer is a lock, as well, seeing as he has had success across all corners of the globe. But seeing as he is a fast bowler and because of England’s rotation policy, he probably won’t play all five Ashes Tests.
The same can be said about Chris Woakes, who is not only a quality bowler, but has a batting average of 27, very handy for a No.8.
England only have one of him and Australia don’t have a player like that, but would if they selected Michael Neser, Jack Wildermuth or Joel Paris (maybe I’ll talk about that in the future).
Once again, the chances of him playing all five Tests are next to none, especially considering he said recently he “can’t play two days in a row”.
I expect Stuart Broad to be the fourth seamer, along with Woakes, Stokes and Archer, with James Anderson and Olly Stone to rotate.
So, England’s strength is their bowling attack, but that’s not different to Australia.
Pat Cummins is the No.1 bowler in the world according to the ICC rankings, Josh Hazlewood is fourth and Mitchell Starc is ninth. I struggle to see where they have the advantage.
England are going to find it very hard this summer – their line-up at the moment is not good enough, and it’s going to have to drastically change before December to give themselves even the smallest chance of winning the next Ashes series.
Unders
Roar Pro
Well his proven 'weakness' ( not really a weakness just something he gets out to more frequently) was quality off-spin from Ashwin in December. England don't even seem to play a spinner these days so think England better hone in their line and length come the Ashes.
Unders
Roar Pro
This is similar to the Saffers saying they'll pump the Lions 3-0 in Rugby. Whilst you talk about the glaring weaknesses in England's test set up, which are all true, I want to see more of your suggestions. Dom Sibley and Rory Burns ( successful against Australia in 2019) will likely open come Brisbane. Both are ugly to watch and borderline torture, but on flat roads, don't be surprised if Sibley bats multiple days. He is perhaps after Root and Stokes England's only batter who can really grind in and value his wicket, without really knowing his off stump or moving his feet as well. Dawid Malan is in the form of his life and was decent last Ashes down under. Bowling wise, England have many options but their policies will probably be mismanaged and over-bowling someone like Stuart Broad. There is talk that him and Anderson may not even play all 5 Tests, and nor will Archer. Naughty boy Ollie Robinson could be back in the team at 8 if the ECB's harsh treatment of Chris Woakes emerges.
Cari
Roar Rookie
We are discussing the coming Ashes Tests later in this year not what happened in the past. Australia depends heavily on one batsman and there is little left in the bag if he falls. Broad is a seam bowler not a swing bowler. It’s almost impossible to prepare a pitch to take spin that depends on the atmosphere present on the day.
Micko
Roar Rookie
Fair point.
TimO
Roar Rookie
The conditions won't trouble them mate. The Aussie bowlers might thought. BTW, I didn't say the English batters were better than the Aussies, because they ain't. I just don't think the averages tell the full story.
Micko
Roar Rookie
By that logic, English batsmen should have little trouble in Australia with the "batting friendly conditions".
TimO
Roar Rookie
Australia would have to be favourites, in Australian conditions. Comparing test batting averages a little misleading, as Aussie batsmen get to play half their tests in batting friendly conditions. English batters at home often playing rain shorten games on green-tops, ball swinging, and with more bowler friendly Dukes.
Paul
Roar Guru
g'day U long time no hear. This is a cryptic message an I'm not sure how you can make that claim when he's not even in the Test side?
U
Roar Rookie
It doesn’t matter if people didn’t catch them. He hardly got any bowled or lbws.
U
Roar Rookie
But he has hardly played over the last few years
U
Roar Rookie
None of them are any good. They might as well go back to Khawaja. At least he’s proven to score hundreds.
U
Roar Rookie
I disagree. Well will take as many 30s and 40s as we can at this point.
U
Roar Rookie
Leach is a better bowler than Lyon.
Mitch
Guest
What are you talking about? We beat New Zealand more often than not.
Republican
Guest
I reckon England can win the ashes. We over rate ourselves as usual. Our world rankings have regressed in all versions of the game while we struggle to defeat a nation of only 5mill in NZ these days who happen to be superior in Cricket despite it being touted as our national sport.
matth
Roar Guru
I’m hopeful just being cautious. Warner is waning, Labs is due a little downturn, so as usual Smith is the key
ken gargett
Guest
so take the world's best bowler and two of thee world's best batsmen (one of them one of the all time greats) out of our side and we are rubbish. fair enough but with respect, this is real 'if my aunt was my uncle' stuff. two points. 1. what side would not be massively weakened by such players being removed? 2. they are not going to be removing them. agree with you about starc. at least in the last year or two. and we do have weaknesses in the batting.
Sedz
Guest
Kohli is past him prime, haven't got meaningful innings last 2 years. Bumrah faded after the Melbourne test and he looked out of sorts in home tests vs England and WTC final. Rohit is still new to tests but crucial innings by him along with Pant, Pujara, Gill & Rahane(to a smaller extent) saved India. Of course decent contributions from Aswin, Jadeja and Siraj as well.
Sedz
Guest
Author has conveniently ignored the fact that Woakes is more of a swing bowler who may find helpful conditions in England/NZ but not in hard pitches like Australia. Rather bowlers like Cummins, Shami, Siraj and Hazlewood are hit the deck type of bowlers who may get some thing out of the pitch. I don't see Broad or Chris Woakes troubling Aussies except pink ball test. England may rather do well with players like Ollie Robinson and Wood.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
I think we have expected to be surprised by England on their last few tours here, but the collapsing house of cards outcome they have delivered time and again has been consistent. Hence the negative view as to their prospects.