It feels as though the news of Connor Watson leaving the Newcastle Knights quickly became a referendum on Adam O’Brien’s ability to coach and build a successful culture at the club.
It was bewildering last week to see the same talking heads who routinely praised Nathan Brown’s awful tenure at the club come down on O’Brien so fiercely.
When the Knights lost 28-8 to the Roosters a few weeks ago, even me, as a Knights fan, had to question whether O’Brien had what it took to make the club successful.
But since that loss they’ve won four games in a row and look poised to play finals for consecutive seasons, something the club hadn’t done for 18 years before his arrival.
They’ve had a good run of games to help them out, but you still have to win them and a club like Canberra has found ways to lose these games this year.
He may not be the coach who takes the Knights to Grand Final glory, but there is no doubting he has made the club competitive at the very least.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Success is measured in many different ways, and some may see two seventh-placed efforts in consecutive years as mediocre.
It is still better than what half the competition has done in the past two years and can be a good building block for long-term success.
Compared to the 7-8 years of garbage football the fans put up with before he arrived, it is difficult to understand why some fans and media pundits believe his predecessor did a better job.
Here is some of what he has achieved during his two-year tenure.
In 2020 he had to use more than 30 players as the injury toll forced more than 10 players to spend long stints on the sideline. Normally using more than 30 players means a club will finish in the bottom four but he got them to seventh.
In 2021 he has been dealt with the same injury run and has them in the box seat for another 7th placed finish. The club’s detractors will say they’ve been inconsistent, which is true, but if you are continually changing your line-up and can never have players in key positions available all at once it makes it extremely challenging to play consistent football.
Halfback Mitchell Pearce has only played 10 games so far in 2021 and they’ve gone 8-2 in the games he has played. When Pearce hasn’t played, the Knights are a dreadful 3-9, which equates 80 per cent win rate down to 33 per cent. Even as Pearce has declined in the last 18 months due to age, that is a staggering statistic.
Pearce and O’Brien’s overall record together reads 19 wins, 10 losses and a draw, which is an excellent return considering the merry-go-round of playmaking spines the club has been forced into.
Since Jake Clifford has arrived mid-season, the Knights are a perfect 5-0 when he plays alongside Pearce.
For so long under O’Brien, the club has struggled to find the right man to play outside Pearce, but it looks like O’Brien hit a home run by identifying Clifford to play in the six jersey.
As well as having a more experienced squad than in years gone past, O’Brien has gone deep into his squad to blood the likes of Brodie Jones, Chris Randall, Dom Young, Simi Sasagi, Brayden Musgrove, Matt Croker and Jirah Momoisea.
He has been able to keep the club competitive in the present while maintaining an eye on the club’s future, which can be tricky waters to navigate.
Another area they’ve excelled in is games decided by single digit margins. The Knights are 11-4-1 which at the least suggests they’ve learnt how to grind out wins and for a blue-collar town, they understand the importance of ugly wins over pretty losses.
The one aspect that is concerning is they only rank 15th in total points scored, which should be impossible with Kalyn Ponga as the best player in your team. The Knights still run a lot of block shapes in attack which has slowly gone out of vogue and made them easy to defend at times.
Ponga is at his best when he has space on either the left or right edge, rather than playing as a support man through the middle and the one area they can tinker with their attack may be to find a way how to stretch the defensive line with long passing before they have the likes of Bradman Best and Kurt Mann pour into holes.
Getting Dane Gagai back to the club next season will help provide more strike and should improve their attack once again.
Prior to coaching the Knights, O’Brien had never held a head coaching role at any level after serving a 15-year apprenticeship under Craig Bellamy and Trent Robinson.
He was seen as one of the best up-and-coming coaches for several years, and the likes of Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater have stated on record how good they think he can be.
Perhaps there was more pressure on him than the normal rookie head coach to hit the ground running, but for the handicaps he has been dealt, he has done a fantastic job to keep the Knights in the top eight.
Randy
Roar Rookie
The only top 6 team they play twice is the Roosters, incredibly soft draw for them this year.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
How would any current coach go with the Knights roster which produced 7-8 years of garbage footy? Bennett took over and the team went backwards for a season with a better roster but as the roster kept adding rep players, the results improved, it's no great surprise. Same with O'Brien. The roster has been improved more than any other club and they've moved up the ladder. Theres no evidence that the coach has worked miracles, it's the cattle.
Pommy Chris
Guest
Just on the Conor Watson issue. I’m surprised more people aren’t commenting on the fact that with Gagai coming in next season Kurt Mann will need move out of his (recent) position of right centre. He will make an ideal 14 for the Knights covering every back line position, hooker and lock (at a push). Would Watson get picked ahead of Mann in their first choice 17? As much as I like Conor I don’t think he would.
HENRIK Pedersen
Guest
From the outside looking in it seems to me some one in the Media really has it in for Seibold
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
I was going to say the same thing about their easy draw in the run home compared with some other teams. Despite it being so easy they’ve struggled to beat Dogs, Broncos and Sharks. I’m not overly convinced they can beat the Titans and the Broncos in the next two weeks. And I don’t rate O’Brien as a coach – he was the only coach to attribute the move to the Queensland bubble as a reason for one of their poor performances.
Mr T
Roar Rookie
Before Adam O'Brien took over in 2020, the Knights hadn't made the top 8 since 2013 under Wayne Bennett. I know they only finished 7th last year and will likely finish in the same position this year, but considering the injuries they've had over the last 2 season, O'Brien has definitely got a pass mark. Losing Connor Watson isn't ideal, but also not the end of the world. He's a good player, but not a great player and he won't reach any great heights in his career (origin etc). They have a well balanced squad next year with a good mix of experience (Pearce, Klemmer, Frizzel, Gagai) and youth (Saifiti twins, Ponga, Best, Brailey, Clifford). It is definitely not the finished product and I dont think at the moment they are competition heavyweight. But if they can get better luck injuries next year, develop a few more juniors and recruit well, they can definitely build towards a premiership in the next few years. Unlikley, but not impossible, and I think O'Brien is the coach to do it.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Newcastle have scored the second least amount of points this season Only the bottom four teams have a worse points differential On a simple strength of schedule they have by far the easiest draw, with their opponents having 222 wins this season. The two teams just outside the 8 have played teams with 242 and 252 wins. Newcastle have played each of the bottom 4 teams twice. So they have been outscored over the season, and have struggled to score, with the easiest draw in the comp. They are very lucky to be in this situation. They still need to win this week to guarantee their spot in the 8
Paul
Roar Guru
I think you've been a tad selective with your stats Harry. I notice for example, there's no mention of the current 11-11 record the Knights own. There's also no mention of the 2 wins 8 losses against top 8 sides. O'Brien has done well with a squad he created, to make the finals, no argument, but I can't see any significant improvement. I compare the Knights with Manly and there's a team that looks like it's going places. If you're happy to make the finals good on you, but as it stands, I don't O'Brien has what it takes to make the Knights a better team, good enough to actually compete for the premiership
souvalis
Roar Rookie
To be honest and as much as I like to see the side win games, you'd rate him thus far with a 'pass' mark. He's got a better squad than Manly and over the last 10 weeks, the Roosters , simiar if not worse injury list, but they were still touch and go for the 8 for a long time, whilst the former have hovered around the 4 all year. It's the area of player development he's lacked in and probably the main reason Watson chose Robinson to take over mentoring him. Watson joined the club to play in the halfs but didn't improve his game enough to be preferred in front of even average players like Green, Lino and Crossland. Was given first choice at fullback in the Ponga to 6 experiment and bumbled it, now he's 1/2 game at 13 and 1/2 game sitting down.. gone nowhere in 3 years.. ditto Klemmer, Fitzy, every one.. 7th again, first out again.
Nat
Roar Guru
I wouldn't worry too much about it mate, Fox get paid on hyperbole. Watson is a good player but at $350k, that's about as much attention as the Knights should give the situation. The real concern O'Brien should have in Moses influence. If he doesn't get what he wants it's the DT who get the first phone call.