It’s time to cue the ‘Cats are over the cliff’ stories.
Another Geelong finals loss, this time a demolition by a surging Demons outfit. A list profile and team age that tops all records for VFL/AFL teams.
All their stars are over 30.
But it may not be cliff edge just yet. Looking past the ages of the players shows that there may be life in the Cats for another year or two yet.
Tom Hawkins is the prime example. His reliance on his strength and body positioning plus relatively low running requirements afford him the potential ability to perform at the AFL level longer than most. He may get slower and be less quick to recover and impact multiple contests, but Hawkins looks to have two more seasons doing what he does. As the big target forward, the team has adjusted around his reduced athleticism.
Joel Selwood too has maintained his endurance and competitiveness, though he no longer has the ability to swing momentum and change the course of matches.
Both remain relatively healthy and durable, able to keep playing on. I suspect that 2022 will be Selwood’s last season.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Patrick Dangerfield still has the mix of breakaway speed and strength. He may not be in the top five midfielders of the competition anymore, but he remains capable of winning contested ball and clearances.
He is starting to slow and has taken to diving – in each of the last three preliminary finals Danger has chosen to play for the free kick with an unmistakable flop.
It is the same story for each of the top ten Cats: nearing the end of their careers, not improving but also not showing signs of physical deterioration. And their style of bigger bodies and precise kicking, structure not manic running, lends itself to older athletes. Modern sports science is helping older athletes continue at the elite level. It’s not unreasonable to think that Hawkins, Dangerfield, Cameron Guthrie, Mitch Duncan, Zach Tuohy, Mark Blicavs and Jeremy Cameron will be playing good footy in 2022 and 2023.
The Cats on Friday night looked tired and defeated, their personal grand finals having been played the week before, consuming all mental energy. And as with the Tigers, the repeated finals campaigns have taken their toll. A collapse in the last game against the top side doesn’t indicate that they will collapse against all sides.
If we look at the season overall, they could have finished top of the ladder but for a last-quarter fade-out. Their core group are consistent, settled, professional and capable of beating most sides.
So what lies in store for this Geelong side? They are too good and too well structured to become a bottom side. Their top ten to 15 players will get enough wins during the home-and-away season to make finals. So it’s very tempting for the club to go around again.
Could they top up again with mature recruits? Surely not.
Should they bottom out and cut deeply? Looking at their depth and youth, it will be a hard, cold winter if this transpires. Against this approach is the lack of budding superstars who could form the next premiership team.
Trade out? Similar to the Richmond list, there will be little trade value because the core group are too old and the fringes have no exposure. Which club wants to trade for a 29-year-old Duncan who will play only 40 more games? And Geelong can’t afford to shift out their youngsters.
I expect that the aim will be to again target finals with this core group, ignoring the naysayers, and continue the dream. In the next two years they will make finals but not win any.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
So where does that leave their list management? As we know, the age profile is horribly out of whack, with little youth coming through. The mid to younger bracket hasn’t shown much, with only a handful playing consistently.
More importantly is that the decision to target finals again will conspire to keep the club heading down this slippery path.
There are some easy changes to the list. Josh Jenkins is gone as a failed experiment. Lachie Henderson will go, replaced by an inexperienced backman. The failure to get games into Nathan Kreuger effectively forces Blicavs to remain at fullback. But those two don’t dramatically change the age profile of the list.
Many older players will remain. Isaac Smith played well against the Dees. Tuohy, Blicavs, Duncan, Guthrie and Sam Menegola are all key contributors and the nucleus of the 22. Cameron, Stewart and Jed Bews are still at their peak.
Shaun Higgins has one more year on a two-year contract, as does Luke Dahlhaus with a four-year contract. Both were poor decisions.
The ruck situation is dire. Rhys Stanley will get two more years because there is no other option. Backup Darcy Foot is 28 and clearly isn’t the answer. In a better-placed club both would be delisted, but there is no other ruckman on the list over the age of 20.
The other list changes will be at the fringes and not readily impact the senior team.
The fundamental list deficiencies, including a need for speed and dynamism, will not be quickly addressed.
It leaves Geelong in a nexus, neither good enough to win finals against top four sides – and getting further from it – nor building for the next flag.
The Cats are doomed to continue chasing their failures over the past decade with an ever decreasing possibility of success.
And this is growing the size of that cliff the Cats are approaching.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
No doubt they were a decent team. I do wonder how many games they would have won this year if they played out of Marvel or the MCG though. I agree, just like West Coast, I expect their home ground advantage will be enough for them to stay in the bottom half of the eight.
TD
Roar Rookie
Agree with most of what you've said, without the hyperbowl :stoked: Love Parker, favourite opposition footballer. Blakey is too selfish at this stage of his career. No way pick 4 is the mix for Dawson, good footballer but Adelaide will not trade him for that. Amartey an interesting call, though he is showing promise as a forward. And big Tom Hickey is obviously a fan favourite and will poll well in the brownlow in the first half of the year. Can he repeat it? Keeping him on the park and in that form will be crucial for 2022.
TD
Roar Rookie
Thanks Knack, I do like how the Bloods went about it this year. Such a refreshing change to their gamestyle. Lots to like with the youngsters, I have a few favs there including McInerney and Hewitt for playing their roles, plus seeing whipping boys like Fox play well. I was a big doubter on Mills as he was overhyped but he did fit into the midfield well. Still a heavy reliance on Kennedy and Parker. Would they have beaten the Cats? No doubt they would have given a better shot than GWS. IMO it depends if Mills and Kennedy would have made it back. History tells us that generally the top 4 team does win the semi but I’d have been cheering the red and the white in the semi. Gotta back it up next year though!
TD
Roar Rookie
finishing 3rd, 2nd, 3rd indicates they are/were a decent team. Will they fall over next year or gradually decline? I'd suggest it will be a slow drop to 5-7th position, helped by their home ground dominance.
TD
Roar Rookie
Clark is a good example of the short term thinking. It will be interesting to see if Clark and Narkle remain at the club. No doubt in 22 that Kruger and Stephens get opportunities, though I'd say that de Koning is still 3-4 years from becoming the number 1 ruckman which highlights a list management problem and means Stanley is the starting ruck for the next 2 years.
TD
Roar Rookie
thanks K2K. summarised the article very well, it is a dilemma for the Cats made by themselves and only going to get worse
TD
Roar Rookie
Yep its clear that Geelong will not get rid of twenty players. So 2022 will be a similar year, with the strong core players. I'd suggest that the drop off will be more gradual than a cliff and a massive bottom out (in 2022). But 10 new players on the list is a big change. Geelong doesnt have the draft picks or trade potential to do that.
pablocruz
Roar Rookie
They'll always be the Bloods to me, Knackaz. Some people have no regard for history.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Geelong only make the top 4 year in year out because of their home ground advantage. When the whips are cracking against the decent teams they inevitably crumble. The simple answer is that they're just not that good. Selwood and Danger have had it, Guthrie and Menengola are mediocre - their only good midfielder now is Duncan. They're not going to win a flag until they get more grunt in the guts and play a more attacking style.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Isn't this article about Geelong? And there's no team called the "Bloods". They are the Swans.
AJ73
Roar Rookie
They need to make the hard calls, they should have been made last year. If they had stayed in front after halftime and won the GF last year, I think Henderson would have definitely retired. I think they need to say thanks and play Kruger instead. Out of the back 6, Clark should have played probably instead of Kolodjashnij (though I do like him) to give a small back and add pace. Narkle should have always been picked ahead of Dahlhaus or Higgins, shouldn't have had both of them in the team. Unfortunately, as much as I love watching Selwood go about his business, I can see him holding on too long to a midfield position, needs to move down back or come off the bench. Dangerfield should just be in the forward line instead of Rohan, he has not performed in finals at all across his career. Constable should have been playing in the midfield. I would give Stanley another year but play de Koning - he looks promising as a ruckman. Selwood I think only has a year left so Stephens jumps in. Just my thoughts
Boo
Guest
What are Geelong supposed to do know ? Get rid of twenty players .Obviously they weren't good enough for the flag but this concept of bottoming out with the talent on the list is almost legitimatizing tanking .They shouldn't have recruited Higgins but Smith and Cameron have been good .Dalhouse isn't much chop either but most clubs don't always get it right .There could be up to ten new players on the list next year if two of them stand up and a couple of the young ones develop the Cats will challenge again .
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
Good considered analysis of a dilemma the Cats have constructed deliberately for themselves. An always but ‘not-quite’ outcome from a policy of topping up and remaining competitive. It could have worked – but hasn’t quite got there since 2011 though you’d have to say that being a Cats fan over the last decade has been a lot more rewarding than being a fan of clubs in self declared rebuilding mode. Say Carlton or St Kilda. But what an absurd headline! Not written I’m sure by the author. The article in fact says the opposite – that Geelong could hang in making finals for the next two years but have some thinking to do because their experienced players are nearing the end and young players need to be developed. But two years is a long time and Geelong is a smart club with a good awareness of where cliffs are and a fair chance of thinking through how to avoid them.
Mooty
Roar Rookie
I don’t know if Scott can change. Next season if they get a few early wins he will go yeah we are back on track and not make major changes. They might recruit another ready made player from somewhere to fill a gap. I predict deja vu for Geelong in 2022. Speaking of their recruits, what has happened to Jenkins, I can’t remember him playing a game since they brought him from the crows.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
As good as those players are, their best is behind them and most will decline to varying degrees next year. Their two finals losses showed there is already a big gap and it’s only going to get bigger. They won’t make finals next year.
Knackaz
Roar Rookie
Josh Kennedy started many games on the bench this year. He still played consistently good contested footy this year but I suspect 2022 will be his Swansong. Luke Parker is still at the top of his game and when he starts slowing down will become a very dangerous marking small/mid forward. He's a heart-and -soul player who will bring through Young Bloods like Chad Warner, Dylan Stephens, James Rowbottom, Braeden Campbell, Errol Gulden, Nick Blakey, Justin McInerney, James Bell, Sam Wicks and the new midfield draftees. He deserved a 4 year contract and will not let the Club down. Callum Mills is a big body who had an excellent first season in the midfield. His loss was keenly felt in the finals loss to GWS. Ollie Florent has developed nicely though he needs to clean up his kicking inside 50. George Hewett will be a loss but can be covered. He was solid but not quick enough for mine. "Golden Boot" Errol Gulden will continue his meteoric rise to move into the Centre and become the next Sam Mitchell. The kid just oozes class as a pure, natural footballer. Chad Warner is a tough, hard, explosive and quick 20 year old with a powerful boot who could be anything. Dawson will be a big loss but Campbell is an even better kick and "The Lizard" Nick Blakey will become a gun 195cm half back, is lightning quick and is also a very good kick. Will Gould (191,100) needs to be played in 2022 at half back. I'm surprised he hasn't got a run yet, but Horse realy makes the young boys earn their games. He never gifts games, which is why the Swans have bounced so hard. The Bloods desperately need a big key defender. I would give Joel Amartey a run at Full Back. He's a good size (197,98), very athletic and a good mark. Can easily see him developing into a quality, attacking defender like Tom McCartin has become. Logan McDonald should play every game in 2022 and will become a gun key forward. Tom Hickey (30) needs some help in the ruck and another marking forward/utility (ala Dawson/Sam Reid) would be handy. I like the look of Mac Andrew as this type of tall, athletic hybrid. Mabior Chol would also fit in well in Sydney. Dawson to Adelaide for pick 4 and say Ben Ronke/Colin O'Riordan/Matthew Ling/Ryan Clarke. It's going to be a very interesting trade/draft period. Go Bloods!
Marty
Roar Rookie
Good article, cheers. I agree that they will stick with the same approach next year. More importantly, I think that’s what guys like Clark and Narkle believe so they will be looking to jump ship, which only adds to the problems once the old boys retire. More than happy to welcome young Jordan home at Freo.
Knackaz
Roar Rookie
Not that I would want to help Geelong at all, but Sydney have shown how to do it in a much tougher market. And yes, a Club does have to bottom out for a few years, but the Sleepy Hollow will just have to suck it up. It can't be avoided, and like cancer, the longer you leave it the worse it becomes. In the case of the Bloods, they were only out of the finals for 2 years, then bounced hard this year. They kicked themselves out of it against GWS and if they had won that game most likely would have knocked Geelong off the following week, as they beat them earlier in the season and have their measure. The huge difference though is that Horse Longmire has not only been blooding kids consistently during this period, but actually playing them, giving them roles roles and developing them (something Scott is very adverse to). So these kids, whilst much higher quality than Geelong's anyway, now have games, experience and confidence under their belts. To suggest Geelong aren't already at the cliff's edge is to be just as deluded as Chris Scott himself. Rooster one day, feather duster the next ...
TD
Roar Rookie
I doubt that bite the bullet Micko. Which makes it fascinating. No premierships and no youth but a solid core in their prime of Guthrie, Duncan, Stewart, Blicavs. Even a new coach is still likely to push for the top. Fascinating.
TD
Roar Rookie
Cheers Mr R. That the Cats are so close to me indicates that they will continue to push the chips in for another round. Its a very big gamble and makes the eventual rebuild that much harder. The swans are an interesting club. I'd say their midfield still relies massively on Parker and Kennedy but an influx of youth and attacking gamestyle has given them bounce. Much more than I would have believed.