Manly’s loss to the Melbourne Storm, as a diehard Manly fan, was devastating. Melbourne didn’t just beat us, they exposed every weakness in the side.
In a sense, it was a reality check for a Manly team that has thrived when we’re on top of sides, but struggled when we’re in the fight.
Our major problem was obvious (and Dessie said as much): errors. If we’re to win a premiership, we can’t just give away position and points at crucial times. And to win this year, we need to rethink one key position: our second row.
Josh Schuster is an incredible player — don’t get me wrong. Sublime ball playing skills. A boot that simply oozes talent. But our game against Melbourne exposed one key thing: Josh has some growing up to do, and do fast.
A key part of where Manly goes wrong is Josh’s errors per game. In recent weeks, his errors have gone up. His tackle efficiency in recent weeks is down to 89 per cent on the last four games, well down on the season start. He averages 1.11 errors per game, compared to Haumole Olakau’atu, who is below 1. Most backorders will average below 0.8 at NRL standard.
The challenge if your second row is conceding errors, is it means less room for error in your outside backs. And in a finals game — particularly where dominant field position is so important — the crucial factor that can decide games is self-inflicted errors.
Schuster is no doubt Manly’s future five-eighth and a brilliant player. Being brought in early to first grade likely hasn’t helped, and it does look as if elements of his game just have bad habits. Loose carries and constantly trying to no-look pass when it’s not needed don’t actually help the team; and highlight the exuberance of youth rather than a genuine usage of his immense skills.
To win the premiership, Manly simply cannot afford any more of these errors. Curtis Sironen, a gun player in his own right, averaged 0.64 errors throughout the 2019 season. He averaged even less, 0.39, in 2020.
The logical choice to win is simple. Josh Schuster, a brilliant and popular player, should be replaced by Sironen in the line-up. Doing so would reduce errors, improve Manly’s field position and ultimately allow Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans to get down the other end of the field more often — where we know, more often than not, they’re going to score points.
Time to make the hard choice, Des.
Henry
Roar Rookie
Backs a high error rate is good as it's late in the set so it means trying things. Forwards less so as it's typically early in the set. So Turbo having a high error-rate =/= Schuster having one.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
I find reliance on stats misleading. Apparently chooks have one of the highest error rates, but that's because they are always trying things and moving the ball instead of predictable one-out. Plus they defend their errors well and often don't pay for them. Makes the chooks extra dangerous and hard to beat so the stat is quite meaningless.
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
Are we playing Money Ball?
mushi
Roar Guru
You've got the bye this week. It's all good.
Kosta
Roar Rookie
I'm a die Hard Manly Fan and have read the comments about Schuster and agree he does have mistakes in his game and maybe should come off the bench. But I also believe that people are under estimating the lose Croker was for Manly. It all starts at dummy half in attack and Corker has been great for Manly this year. It's a Cliche but defence wins comps and I think that's where Manly has problems. Just look at what Souths did to Penrith.
brookvalesouth
Roar Rookie
1. Agree, but more pointedly involved, not just being thrown the ball with nothing happening. 2. Somewhat agree, for patches. This season, when in trouble with the ruck, our option to get out of trouble has been to kick early and try to force an error or gain field position – and its worked well. We tried to do that v the Storm but our diabolical first 10 minutes put scoreboard pressure on us – that was the time to work hard through the middle for 10 minutes of our own to try and tire them out. 3. I don’t agree, Harper and Parker can be premiership winners. Parker was close to our best on Friday (not hard to earn that praise though, admittedly), and that was Harpers worst game at Manly – but he has been defensively sound and scored/set up plenty of tries. 4. I’ve been saying for weeks – our attacking shape needs to set up a bit deeper. We looked our best when Foran was hitting the line and going back to Tom or the backrowers. Lately, our shape has had our backrowers almost in line with the centres, which has pushed the wingers further up too. We’ve got the speed on the edges to get 1-2m deeper on our attacking shape and still find space. 5. Arguably Walker’s best season all around – has adapted to the small middle forward role well.
brookvalesouth
Roar Rookie
Harper had a stinker, but in no way should he be dropped because of it.
dogs
Guest
I don't get the hate for Harper. On the live blog I thought it was way out of proportion. He's not the first centre Olam has made look ordinary, and Olam only ran right through him once. And Tino dropped more ball for the Titan's and didn't get any of the hate that Harper copped. He and Saab are both pretty inexperienced (its first season of regular first grade for both right?) so I think its unrealistic to expect them to be a top notch defensive edge. Give 'em time.
C.A
Guest
My thoughts 1: schuster needs to be more involved 2: manly need to try and dominate the ruck before playing dazzle dazzle footy 3: Manly need the addition of a top line centre for them to compete for the title 4: players like Olakau’atu often receive the ball flat footed. They need to get early ball from DCE and they need to be charging at the line/hitting gaps 5: haven’t been a big fan of walker but he’s been quite impressive lately
Dylan
Guest
WHY IS NO ONE TALKING ABOUT MORGAN HARPER? He has way more errors per game then Schuster and Olam ran over him like he was mucking around with children.
NSWelshman
Roar Rookie
Sorry Henry, I guess you’re a better game analyst than Des…..where have your comments re Josh been most of the year when many pundits were applauding him? He has a couple of dud games & suddenly he’s not 1st grade material? Brought in too early? Tell that to all the other coaches who’ve blooded 17 & 18 yr olds. Josh has been outstanding this year! Every player has a few hiccups….Sorry mate I’ll believe what experts say regarding Josh Schuster & trust Des knows what he’s doing regarding team analysis & selection. It’s worked most of the year. I respect it’s your opinion mate but I can’t agree.
NorthNarra
Roar Rookie
Great read Henry and well researched. Don't want to be Debby Downer but I reckon a Manly GF this time around is very unlikely after watching the Storm debacle. Could well get over the Chooks on the weekend, but can't see Manly beating Souths if the Bunnies bring the same level of bone shattering defence and Road Runner line speed that crueled the Panthers. That said, while I really rate Siro, he is not in Manly's future while Josh is a massive potential for the club. Schuster, errors and no-lookers or not, needs all the big game experience on offer right now, even if it's just one more finals game. As for Brad Parker I reckon he has improved his detail game tremendously this year and he is utterly fearless making tackles or ball in hand. Morgan Harper has a way to go and has just discovered finals footy against the Storm is a different universe to terrorising this year's bottom rung sides. Still, major improvement through the year and like Schuster needs big game time.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Harsh but humorous.
Nat
Roar Guru
Mate, every club fan to play finals against the Storm has woken up feeling like you. Disappointment turns to fixation and the what ifs. You're on the money when you say that they expose every weakness and create a few new ones. Schuster only knows what got him to where he is today and I would have his talent on the park for the sake of one error. He certainly has the physique to be a strong edge player and dominate in tackles but in a team of monsters (and the whole pack are) it's understandable he doesn't have that outward confidence yet. IMO Sirronen's only quality over Schuster in his knowledge in the role.
Henry
Roar Rookie
I agree long-term he's better than Siro. But in a knock out finals series where possession is a major issue and set completion is critical? I'd be looking to get 1-2 errors per match out of the side. With Siro you get that, and might get to end of sets where repeats can be forced and Turbo gets space to do his thing.
Henry
Roar Rookie
You're right, but it isn't even close in this instance. Given Manly's defence isn't the BEST in the league in finals football you need to avoid giving away territory, as territory creates tries. At the very least you want a net positive on the stats front.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I agree with a lot that you’ve written, he does overplay the no look pass (he’s not the Lone Ranger there) and looks for the high risk play too often but geez he’s 20 and in his first year of first grade, playing an unfamiliar and more physical position I’ll take Schuster any day of the week over Sironen Young players - particularly with the skill set Schuster’s got - can take a while to learn that being more selective can make them more effective
The Barry
Roar Guru
That equation only makes sense if you value a try and a try assist equal to an error I’d take a player with 0.5 tries and 0.5 try assists per game who made one error every week
no one in particular
Roar Guru
If a team has one of the Sironen brothers in the team they are destined to lose
no one in particular
Roar Guru
he's spent most of his juniors in the halves. He only played a couple of games last season, so this is his first full season, and he is doing it in the forwards. He is burnt out