The era of fairytale premierships is well and truly upon us, and Melbourne gets a chance to add their club to the ever-growing list.
While our minds immediately go to the Western Bulldogs in 2016 and Richmond in 2017 when it comes to breaking long droughts, there have actually been quite a few this century. This is the AFL equalisation policy at work.
In 2001, Brisbane record their first ever premiership after coming into the competition in 1987, and when we factor in the merge with Fitzroy it was the Lions’ first flag since 1944. Either way, a drought of both 24 years and more than five decades was broken.
In 2004, Port Adelaide won their first flag at AFL level, albeit in only their eighth season. But they had desperately wanted to be part of the AFL when the license was handed to the Adelaide Crows and in a way it was a premiership 134 years in the making.
The following year, in an era of non-Victorian dominance, the Swans broke what was the longest active drought in football, saluting for their first flag since 1933. 1933! That premiership was won 48 years before they moved to Sydney, and in 2005 it was 24 years after the club was relocated up north from South Melbourne. Here it is, indeed.
In a five-year period, the premiership cup three non-Victorian clubs won their inaugural flag and it was the first time the premiership cup had gone to Queensland and New South Wales, both heartlands of the rugby codes.
Watching on with envy were a series of Victorian clubs that had been around for a century or more in one form or another that hadn’t won premierships in decades. When was it going to be their turn?
Geelong had made four grand finals in seven years from 1989-1995 without winning one. But they swept all before them in 2007 and took out the flag by a record 119 points with a display of breathtaking and perfect football. 44 years of failure was wiped out.
Hawthorn had been in the wilderness for almost two decades after their 1991 premiership, and stole away with the 2008 flag. While not as storied a victory for the length of time that others waited, it was still significant.
Collingwood had gone 20 years between premierships when they took out the 2010 season. They weren’t quite at the ‘Colliwobbles’ stage like they were in 1990, off a 32-year drought, but it wasn’t far from gathering momentum either.
2016 saw arguably the most famous drought-breaker of them all. The Western Bulldogs were 50-1 to win the flag at the start of the finals series, having occupied seventh on the ladder for the last six rounds of the season and with a trip to Perth to take on 2015 grand finalist in an elimination final. Of course, they won that and then peeled off another three victories to put to bed a 62-year wait.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Richmond’s turn was next in 2017, completely improbable in its own way given they had finished 13th the year before and hadn’t even won a final since 2001. The surge of momentum and the stuff of dreams, similar to the Dogs, carried them all the way through. It’s doubtful the MCG has ever rocked as hard in one finals series as it did in the three Tigers wins that September.
Now, Melbourne stands on the precipice of creating their own history, and putting to bed the *cough, cough* demons of the past.
What is most fascinating about all of the premierships listed above is that it was the first time those clubs had made the grand final with that group of players, and all except Collingwood in 2010 had a grand final debutant as senior coach.
The oft-held wisdom in AFL circles is that you have to lose one to win one and use the pain of defeat to inspire the deeds of victory. But when a team has a sense of destiny, that they alone can turn around the fortunes of a sad history, and they harness the power and energy of belief, it can certainly overcome everything else.
It’s also worth noting that most of those victories came as the underdog, which gives even more power to the idea of unstoppable momentum. While Melbourne will go in as favourites on Saturday week, they are also reaching the grand final for the first time.
If Melbourne can deliver on their promise, a 57-year hoodoo will be broken. It would leave Adelaide (23 years), Carlton (26), Fremantle (26), Gold Coast (11), GWS (10) and North Melbourne (22) as teams that have not won a flag this century.
Oh, and St Kilda, who have been waiting 55 long years, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them wait that long again.
While the neutrals were with the Bulldogs in 2016, they’ll be on the Demon bandwagon this time around.
History says we’ve got another Cinderella story about to happen
Cliff
Roar Rookie
Destiny is a two edged sword. The story is different if you don’t win. Just ask any bulldog supporter after 97. The AFL Grand Final is a furnace. Just watching the 2016 GF yesterday, 10 furious minutes without a score. In that furnace, it doesn’t matter what has happened before, if there is a sense that it is your turn or if you have the longest drought. Just last week Port were up and about thinking history was there for the taking. Melbourne has been magnificent in its two finals but they have hardly played tough matches. What matters is how you stand up to that heat. The dogs have 9 players who have shown that they can do it, and half of them did it as teenagers. Until Melbourne lift the cup they are unproven. Yes sides like the dogs and Richmond have shown that it can be done. Melbourne will start favourites but ask Port, or Brisbane or any of the sides the dogs beat in 2016 whether this made a difference. History, destiny, mean nothing. It is what happens Saturday in a hundred tiny moments that will determine the day.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
What is? My tip? No, my tip is what I said.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
To what do you refer?
George Apps
Roar Rookie
More like 13 point win to the Dogs.
Darwindee
Guest
Unfortunately to get stuck into Carlton and pointing out the stereotype is also going to land you in hot water for being racist.
DarwinDee
Guest
Don't bother mate - if they don't have a history then no one can.
DarwinDee
Guest
Conveniently ignoring Sydney in 05, Dogs in 16 and Richmond in 17...
DarwinDee
Guest
I agree... but you have to admit it's really frustrating having to wait after both o yr teams so emphatically ditched a couple of "successful" clubs from the race lol! Can't wait till I hit Perth Thursday... it'll feel a bit more real next week.
Dale Hughes
Guest
Wrong
Bigthirsty
Guest
You cut and paste that from On the Couch round 1 Don?
JamesH
Roar Guru
On paper, definitely, although I think they're a much better side now. They're relying a lot more on their experience and less on raw, youthful talent. In 2016 it felt like 15-7 was the best version of the Dogs. This year, 15-7 was a bit of a disappointment.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Yeah I know, the results show it is an issue ... but that doesn't change the fact it's better for the body to have an extra week to recover. So the issue is in the mind. Therefore, I think the coaches and players haven't evolved and adapted mentally. But the other relevant point is that 4 out of 5 premiers in the pre-finals bye era have still been won by sides which finished in the top four - so we are still seeing one of the year's best sides in the H&A season winning the cup.
ColinT
Roar Rookie
But we have all enjoyed pitying Melbourne for so long, enjoyed all the ski season jokes etc. Is that to end? Oh well, there’s always Carlton I suppose.
DarwinDee
Guest
From what my mates in Perth are telling me it won't be a neutral crowd, most likely 80% will be actively cheering for Melbourne- might be the 57 year thing, might be a response to Danny Southern almost killing Peter Sumich on the boundary Subiaco all those years ago!
CloudRunner
Roar Rookie
Since the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016, just 4 out of ten QF winners have gone on to play in the GF. Compare that to the first 16 seasons under the current finals format where the success ratio was 28-4, meaning Non-QF winners have reached the Granny on two more occasions in less than half the years since the Pre-Finals Bye came into effect, it’s fair to hypothesise playing one game in about a month of footy has a detrimental effect on that sides next performance. Good for the Dogs, not so much the Dees.
Jimmy Woods
Roar Rookie
Agree? It’s rubbish. The break helps doggies (who I want to win) but I don’t think it’s fair to dees tbh.
Jimmy Woods
Roar Rookie
Backing the Westies Dougie, don’t let the silver tails out of the box.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Haha, your last line is a very good point PD!
Gary
Roar Rookie
Comparing eras is certainly a sport in itself. I know some people refer to 1990 as an arbitrary timestamp, but it is more significant than that for others… it represents a more real acknowledgment/period-in-time that 2 major state leagues, with long rich histories, now play support roles to newly established local teams in a national competition. The former VFL struggled financially, and saw an opportunity to make money by selling licences… it then realised time to acknowledge the original VFL is no longer, and a national comp is the way forward. And along comes 1990 the first official AFL season, some will argue by name only, but it will forever represent a start point for the AFL era. Where would the ROAR be without such a complicated history to stir the pot with.
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
I get the evolutionary argument. But you can’t argue that winning the VFL in the days of teams based in one City plus Geelong, when before 1986 and there was zoning and no salary caps, when the competition was dominated by 4 teams Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Richmond - that is in any way comparable to wining a flag now. A flag winner, plays 17 other teams, travels between 5 states, there’s a national draft and salary caps. It’s just so much more competitive, much harder and frankly more prestigious. Richmond’s recent success far outweighs in degree of difficulty anything of the VFL era. I think it’s fair to mark 1991 when the Crows joined and all the current states had at least one team. The nostalgic looking back is the undoing of a club like Carlton which thinks of itself as a 16 premiership titan, but in reality has won only one in the era of increased difficulty and that was 25 years ago.