The inquiry into New Zealand’s only loss of this year’s Rugby Championship, against the Springboks on the Gold Coast, will focus on the strange case of the vanishing Kiwi locks.
The jerseys were found, still warm and even sweaty, but with nothing to indicate where the players inside had gone.
Akira Ioane, who has improved his game immensely over the last two years, was also pretty much a passenger (again), and David Havili lacked presence, being a factor of bulk, not effort.
The much-reviled Ardie Savea was almost the only New Zealand forward – apart from Ethan Blackadder when he came on – to really have much impact. Luke Jacobson did some solid things, but less than I had expected given my high opinion of him.
I was shocked as I watched the game at how little presence Brodie Retallick had. From very early on in the Game 1 noticed how heavy Guzzler’s legs seemed to be, and he was blowing hard as well. I wonder if he was fully fit – had he suffered the stomach bug that Jacobson had?
Scott Barrett was clearly playing injured from the early incident where he put on a good hit but came up with a neck or shoulder problem. Patrick Tuipulotu was invisible. He is a class player and Test capable, but if you think that being an All Black should mean you are at least in the top two or three in the world in your position, then he is marginal. I can’t recall a good lock carry from New Zealand last night, and the sight of Guzzler leaning on rucks was just weird.
Rieko Ioane. (Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
Beauden Barrett continues to shovel the ball (every genius has weak points), but the issue was the forwards weren’t going forward very much and there was a distinct lack of direct play. Perhaps this was understandable given the vacuum in the locks and at No. 6, but surely there are times when you have to take the game up the guts to settle things a bit.
I also felt there was a leadership vacuum. This wasn’t just about the captain; this was about established stars putting up their hand and saying, in effect, “Give it to me and I will take it up and then Guzzler will take the next one” and so on.
This was a bit reminiscent of the England loss in the 2019 Rugby World Cup, in which the locks lacked presence – though they were better in that game – and I felt stunned by the lack of leadership. It was also reminiscent of the loss in New Zealand to South Africa in 2018, although that game included some brain farts from the Barrett backs that didn’t occur in this game. Indeed Jordie Barrett had another impressive game under great pressure and was one of the few All Blacks who enhanced their credentials.
I thought the margin flattered New Zealand, whereas in the previous game I felt it flattered South Africa.
The issue of tackler release pointed out by Gregor Paul in the New Zealand Herald – yes, there are other writers there apart from Chris Rattue – has been an issue since the combined Super Rugby competition and the southern hemisphere internationals. Both sides flouted the law and the referee basically allowed it. This tends to then play into the hands of the side able to dominate the collision and/or the immediate entry to the ruck. Last night that was South Africa.
Unlike the England 2019 Rugby World Cup game, in which I thought New Zealand played fairly well (leadership aside) but were outgunned on the night, last night I thought New Zealand were both outgunned and also poor. The reoccurring leadership issue in really tight games and the ongoing question mark over No. 6 and depth at lock remains. I would also still like to see a bigger body at No. 12 for these sorts of games, but if the forwards go AWOL as much as last night and the leadership vacuum remains, they could pick the biggest, fastest beast in the world and it would still make no difference.
I am not sure that the defensive structure being used gets the best out of the available loose forwards for New Zealand. The personnel are available: Sam Cane when fit, Jacobson and Dalton Papalii or Blackadder. But with the defensive structure being used, even they may be outmatched against sides like South Africa, England or even Australia at their best.
It doesn’t have to be that way. New Zealand got themselves into a position where, in the latter part of Steve Hansen’s very successful reign, they basically conceded they lacked the physical grunt to take on sides like England and South Africa in a grind and had to find structures and players who could move the ball away quickly from the hard defensive points.
We saw this in the non-selection of Joe Moody for some key games in 2019, said to be because there were better ball players at loosehead. But a loosehead has a primary duty before their ball playing or field coverage becomes the issue, and the same applies to other forwards.
(Photo by Getty Images)
The only consolation is that the weekend’s loss was a game of little consequence except that no Test side should like to lose a game and no New Zealand side ever does. But that questions from 2017 remain unanswered today should be a cause for some genuine reflection. Where do New Zealand go when Whitlelock and Retallick really start to fade and then retire?
I have not really spoken of South Africa. They deserved to win off the back of a very committed performance. I have felt uncomfortable with the tone of a lot of criticism, even if I have shared some of the concerns. Whether viewers like it or not, rugby has many ways of being played, but it remains as true now as it was when the game developed that if you can dominate collisions, scrum hard and develop pressure at the ineout, and contest the breakdown, you will get the opportunity to try for points.
There are three ways to do this and two of them involve kicking the ball between the uprights. The really good sides can do this and also place the ball over the line to give themselves a try for a goal. Stupid sides neglect the basics and think that the game is about running from anywhere. That is not rugby. It isn’t even rugby league.
However, before South African supporters get too excited, they might do well to temper their justified joy with the thought that as genuine world champions, they have suffered four defeats (admittedly three were away) this season so far. They will lose more if they don’t look to build on last night.
For balance, I will add that despite Australia having much to be happy about – and some of the tries off set piece in recent games have been pure joy to watch – they were well beaten three Tests in a row by New Zealand. They are developing depth by picking players of known capacity in the twilights of their careers, and it remains to be seen if they are willing to use their forwards – whom I think are at least potentially quite abrasive – as they need to against New Zealand or a side like England.
What I think doesn’t need tempering is the pleasure of watching some of the high-quality rugby of varying styles we have been treated to over the last few months thanks to some sides being willing to make enormous sacrifices to play a lot of games away from home.
Argentina have been treated like Cinderella (again), but my observation is that they are not far off being potential semi-finalists at the next World Cup; they will certainly be familiar with playing away from home.
My thanks to all the players, referees, support staff and coaches who have given me so much entertainment and even reasons to tear my hair, gnash my teeth and rend my garments at time; there is no game like this for combining physicality, aggression, technical skills and intelligence, and joy and frustration.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
We are about to find out how they are going . Their teams are certainly playing high tensity rugby . They lack the big mobiles back rowers that the top nations have. So do we .
Benadé Kruger
Guest
A loss is a loss, and nobody will remember the details. As a Saffa I do however take a bit of comfort from the fact that three of the four losses were very tight affairs that went down to the wire (granted, so were wins against the Lions and NZ). We came agonisingly close to taking a Lions series and 2/0 against NZ in the same season. I probably would've taken straight losses against Aus and Arg to have that. Can't wait for the NH tours. If NZ/SA/Aus can all keep going...we'll shut some annoying people up for quite a while.
Otago Man
Roar Rookie
There are plenty of cases of libel prosecution failing even with the wealthy. Frizell earns more than the average person but he is not wealthy and would of been advised not to pursue it as his behaviour would of been examined with a microscope. Johnny Depp recently failed in his libel case about alleged domestic violence when he could of let it go away quietly. He felt he needed truth as he saw it to come out but that did not happen.
Sylvester
Guest
"Prosecuting someone for libel is very risky. " It's not that risky if you're wealthy and the claims are made up. The burden is actually on the media outlets, but their best defence to a defamation claim is truth. Regardless, SF appears to have personal issues he needs to sort out and it's prob best to this without further glare from the media by being in the ABs at this time.
WEST
Roar Guru
Josh Lord Is only 20, he will only get better and better.. Also bigger and more physical. Apparently they’ve been watching him for the past year or so. They’ve obviously seen something they like the look of. Agree with what you’re saying you old Bugger. Foster has always maintained that he wanted to build depth and competition within the squad. He’s certainly doing that. Many don’t see it, but we are in a transition period. We have many All Blacks with little experience.. Quite a few are still in single digits. Akira has only 7 tests to his name for example. But in a year or two when these guys start getting 20-30 tests that’s when you start seeing the rewards. Unfortunately for Foster it might not happen.. But whoever comes in next with more innovative ideas and brings in something new, they will reap the rewards of Fosters work.. having a more established and experienced team. Seems ridiculous that so many are so critical of the All Blacks when they’re clearly in revamp mode? All I know is.. writing off the All Blacks will come back to haunt you.. And bite you in the a..
Alistair Double
Guest
Looks like a case of "over coaching" to the point of robbing players of their initiative and above all adaptability. A good Captain should be able to read the game and recognise when the coach's strategies/playbook are simply not working. Way too much kudos and power being granted to a team's style of play as opposed to the core skills of the individual positions.
Carlin
Roar Rookie
There is a lot to like about Grace. Good workhorse and good line-out option. I prefer him at blindside flanker rather than at 8 but did notice Crusaders used him at 8 quite a lot.
Old Bugger
Roar Rookie
Completely forgot about Grace....good call. And, MSR could easily slot in as future reference. Also, if Flanders has a break-out season or heavens forbid, an injury occurs, then who knows. Those names I mentioned can easily, hang around till 2031 too but for a couple of changes...keeps the bulk go them together cos atm, many are just youngsters, in the international arena.
valleybeanie
Roar Rookie
Exactly right FB.
Carlin
Roar Rookie
Great thoughts and effort there on a future All Black forward pack OB mate. You are right that there is a good chance Foster continues beyond 2023. Would be a hard one to justify if we do not win the World Cup and Robertson continues his Crusaders dynasty. I think Robertson has signed with the Crusaders till 2024 and has a get out clause if gets higher honours. All the players you have forecasted will be in the mix. I would add Cullen Grace as a 6/8/lock cover(not sure whats happened to him this year but was impressive last year). I would also add Devan Flanders in the loose forward mix and Manaki Selby-Rickit as a future lock option.
Old Bugger
Roar Rookie
ooops...I forgot Tu'ungafasi....chuck him in as staying and becoming lead TH prop.
Old Bugger
Guest
Carlin I have this conspiring thought that Fozzie & Co, are setting themselves up to continue coaching, beyond 2023. IMO, it is irrelevant whether they win or lose in 2023 because the precedent was set in 2008, after the ABs were knocked out of the RWC in the QF, against France. My thought is based around a rebuild in the AB forward pack to be ready, immediately post 2023. I'll throw this out there now (probably wishful thinking)....post 2023, could see the following forwards retire (R) or venture overseas (O) including Joe Moody (O), Dane Coles (R), Nepo L (O), Sam W (R), Guzzler (O), Sam C (no change), Frizzell (O), Savea (O), Karl T (O), Bower (O), Taylor (no change), Ta'avao (R), Tuipulotu (O), Scott B (no change), Va'ai (no change), Akira (O), Jacobson (no change) with the remaining forwards currently selected, to remain unchanged. To that end, those forwards who remain also include Lomax, Tau'keiaho, De Groot, Aumua (who IMO, needs a major shift in application attitude, to convince me he should stay), Papa'lii, Blackadder and Sotutu. Add to this list Atu Moli, Josh Lord plus those currents listed above as staying and anyone of Eklund, Fidow, Williams, Parkinson, Darry, Dickinson, Strange, Du Plessis, Robinson, Harmon and Ross then, we're able to see IMO, how and why Lord's selection is not really, as surprising as I initially thought. You know, a post 2023 AB forward pack just could look like: 1. De Groot/Moli/Ross 2. Taylor/Taukei'aho/Aumua 3. Lomax/Fidow/?? 4. Va'ai/Barrett/Strange 5. Lord/Darry/Parkinson 6. Blackadder/Robinson/?? 7. Cane/Papa'lii/Harmon 8. Jacobson/Sotutu Plenty of time to get some mongrel instilled and body weights built-up, to take them through to 2027. Now, will NZR bite the bullet, if 2023 is unsuccessful....??? We shall wait and see.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Fair enough article. There is a little 'over-thinking' of this, though. The ABs have had this problem since 2017. Quite simply, 5 or 6 of the forwards in the 2011-2015 sides would have made a world XV. Since about 2018/2019, none would. That's pretty much 'it' there.
Carlin
Roar Rookie
Well said Sinclair. Thanks for the article. We missed Sam Whitelock in these last two tests. He always thrives against South Africa and I think he has played really well this season. At the end of 2018 and even in 2019 he looked really jaded. His leadership would have been great in the two Boks tests as well. On the New Zealand lock stocks there is a definite need to develop some. I do like the fact Vaa'i is in the squad and that there is a lock bolter in Josh Lord. Vaa'i will have an important role now as he is the first choice back up to Whitelock and Retalick for the remainder of this tour. Lord was definitely a surpise. I would have thought Parkinson, Selby-Rickit or Sam Darry who have all had more Super Rugby experience would have been chosen. There is a desperate need for the All Blacks to get back to winning collisions in the big tests. Hopefully some cold wet Northen Hemisphere rugby kicks them into gear in this area.
Carlin
Roar Rookie
Josh Goodhue is a good line out forward and a good honest toiler. The young lock the Blues got from Canterbury is Sam Darry. He had a good season with the Blues this year and with some development I reckon he is a future All Black. His mum in the All Black Nutritionist.
Emery Ambrose
Roar Rookie
Tupou Vaa’i should get a solid run over the next 5 games to see where he is at, with the other 2 heading back.
Colin Fenwick
Roar Rookie
He is listed as 202cm and 110kg, which would be pretty close to that of Retallick, when he was also 20 years of age.
SB
Guest
Nice piece SW. I was dumbstruck by the same thing on the night! Big Bad Brodie... completely ineffectual?!? Not even 'playing well but nullified with smart tactics' but he actually looking totally out muscled, out of breath, and out of his depth! I haven't rewatched the game yet so still going off first impressions, but I do remember Akira being the only player in black to regularly hold his own in the physical exchanges? (remember Ardies great steal? came off the back of Ioane standing up to THREE Boks on his own!) Not that I'm defending his overall performance, but that aspect was impressive... More worrying than the outmuscling for me was that our line out was dismantled, AGAIN! we may not always have the big bruisers... but dammit we should have the better/smarter rugby players! And the game management seemed lacking too? how many times did DC make our forward pack look good by turning the opposition pack around just when they needed it!
terrykidd
Roar Pro
Good post, enjoyed the read.
Unders
Roar Pro
Is it worth giving Akira Ioane a shot at 12? NZ only had one crash ball midfielder who was poorly treated and understandably went up north for a pay check. Against Australia or virtually any other team in dry, quick tracks, the AB's outpace everyone. But when the rain, chill and sheer mongrel comes into town, England, Ireland, France and SA will lick their lips every time.