The Dragons have assembled a roster which could challenge for the 2017 NRL premiership.
They also have the makings of a squad which could be a contender for the 2027 title.
But when it comes to the 2022 premiership race, St George Illawarra have too many players whose best days are behind them or are a few years away from the prime of their career.
On the back of losing their last eight matches to finish the 2021 season after the Paul Vaughan barbecue brouhaha, the imbalanced roster is hardly the ideal scenario for coach Anthony Griffin heading into the second and final year of his contract.
The club has an option to renew Griffin’s deal for 2023 but they could also opt to start again with a new coach unless he can make the team competitive.
He will be on the hot seat from the word go and the draw announced on Tuesday has done him no favours, with seven finals teams looming in the first ten rounds.
If recent history is any guide, the joint-venture board will be looking to make a call on Griffin’s post-2022 tenure midway through the season and by that stage, they could be well and truly stuck among the also-rans at the bottom of the ladder.
Hook is under pressure in 2022 (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
They’ve boosted their playing stocks with the addition of Maroons forwards Francis Molo and Jaydn Su’A, and Manly centre Moses Suli, whose arrival will likely mean Jack Bird switches to the forwards.
Most of their remaining key players are entering the final phase of their career like 30-somethings Ben Hunt, Andrew McCullough, Tariq Sims, Josh McGuire, Jack de Belin and Aaron Woods or young guns with potential still a few years away from being integral parts of a title-contending team like Zac Lomax, Tyrell Sloan, Talatau Amone, Jayden Sullivan, Cody Ramsey, and the Feagai twins, Mat and Max, who re-signed earlier this week until the end of 2024.
This all adds up to a side which will struggle to compete for the finals and unless club directors see similarities with Griffin’s ultimately ill-fated stint at Penrith in which he blooded several future premiership-winning stars, his long-term future looks shaky.
Much has been made of the Dragons’ supposed Moneyball-style approach to picking up recruits from other clubs who are still paying a portion of the player’s contract.
There’s usually a reason why clubs are happy to shell out dollars for a player to go elsewhere – and it’s rarely a good one.
Moneyball was actually a different beast altogether – signing baseballers that were strong in statistical areas that were undervalued. And Major League Baseball clubs operated in a system with wildly different sums at each franchise’s rosters – the NRL has a uniform salary cap.
St George Illawarra’s approach isn’t necessarily a bad one to get players at a reduced rate but it’s unlikely to result in a premiership-winning squad based on results thus far.
Like communism, boy bands and AFL, it sounds good in theory but once you see it put into practice, something’s just not quite right.
What’s new
The pack has been beefed up by Molo and Su’A, ex-Test prop Aaron Woods and English front-rower George Burgess out of retirement.
Manly second-rower Jack Gosiewski and journeyman centre Tautau Moga will provide extra depth and Moses Mbye will bring utility value.
Mbye joins the Dragons as a utility on a two-year contract (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Tariq Sims is set to stay, despite the NSW forward having permission to explore his options elsewhere, while the club has farewelled hooker Cameron McInnes – who did not play last season due to a torn ACL – to Cronulla, fullback Matt Dufty to Canterbury and released erratic five-eighth Corey Norman.
Star on the rise
Tyrell Sloan showed in scoring six tries in five appearances in 2021 that he can be a dynamic attacking option at fullback. The club will look to add bulk to his teenage frame in the off-season so he can handle the weekly rigours of the NRL.
With Matt Dufty gone to the Dogs, he is likely to be given a chance to make the vacant No.1 jersey his own.
Who’s under the pump
No one more than the coach. Anthony Griffin doesn’t react much to external pressure. Win, lose or draw, his temperament stays on an even keel. But the board will need to be convinced in the first half of the season that his methods are working and the investment in youth will pay dividends. Otherwise there’ll be no shortage of coaches submitting their résumé.
Best-case scenario
If the Dragons can get the best of their oldies and their young guns fire, they could be a challenger for one of the last spots in the top eight. They need captain Ben Hunt injury free and to find him a complementary halves partner from the likes of Jayden Sullivan, Talatau Amone and Mbye, or perhaps Jack Bird.
Worst-case scenario
They get off to a slow start, the fed-up fans start raging about Anthony Griffin’s position – there’ll be some hashtag along the lines of #TimeToHookGriffin – and the gloomy atmosphere affects the younger players.
If that happens, don’t be surprised to see the club make a call on the coach sooner rather than later.
Some of the senior players need to provide true leadership – it would help if the likes of Josh McGuire, Mikaele Ravalawa and Tyrell Fuimaono can stay out of judiciary trouble. McGuire incidentally copped a five-game ban in the final round of last season so won’t be sighted on field until April, anyway.
Predicted Round 1 team
1. Tyrell Sloan
2. Cody Ramsey
3. Zac Lomax
4. Moses Suli
5. Mikaele Ravalawa
6. Jayden Sullivan
7. Ben Hunt (c)
8. Josh Kerr
9. Andrew McCullough
10. Jack de Belin
11. Jaydn Su’A
12. Tariq Sims
13. Jack Bird
14. Moses Mbye
15. Francis Molo
16. Jackson Ford
17. Blake Lawrie
Others: Tyrell Fuimaono, Aaron Woods, Josh McGuire, Jack Gosiewski, Talatau Amone, Daniel Alvaro, Billy Burns, Mat Feagai, Max Feagai, Jaiyden Hunt, Poasa Faamausili, George Burgess
Succhi
Roar Rookie
I think letting Norman go was a master stroke - one that the rest of the world, including communists and boy bands, saw 3 years ago.
Horse and Hound
Guest
Does Griffin have any teeth in that photo?
Nick Maguire
Roar Rookie
max, Amen to that. Clearly 99% of people who use the expression never read the book. Or possibly any book.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
IF George comes good I will be feeling the same pain that I will feel seeing Adam Reynolds playing well for the Broncos. I wish him the best but not against my Bunnies.
John Shaw
Roar Rookie
I hear you, but IF he comes good he will be a sensational addition. I'm excited to see how he goes. Imagine a world where he gets back to his best. Dragons are definitely top 8 material if so. I wish him the best.
The Barry
Roar Guru
To clarify I never said: - the dragons were in the 8 solely based on their draw - the bulldogs would be in the 8 with the dragons draw - the dragons would get the spoon with the bulldogs draw All I’ve said was the dragons ladder position was inflated by a soft draw to start the season Argue that with me if you want but don’t invent all the other stuff and attribute it to me Anyway, I look forward to your theory on how a harder draw leads to a higher ladder position…
The Barry
Roar Guru
I’ll wait for your admission then Look at the Dragons draw for the first 16 weeks of the comp and tell me how that’s not a soft draw?!?!? Storm (1) Panthers (0) Souths (0) Manly (1) Roosters (1) Eels (1) Knights (1) Titans (0) Sharks (2) Raiders (1) Warriors (2) Tigers (2) Broncos (1) Cowboys (1) Bulldogs (2) That’s not manipulating anything. 100% facts. Of course if you get an easy start to the season your ladder position will be higher than it works if you have a hard draw… explain to me how it works otherwise…? Whenever you dig a hole for yourself you start crying that people are manipulating things Count how many times I’ve mentioned the Bulldogs through this discussion. Not once. I’m not claiming the draw has done anything to their chances and I haven’t said swap their draws and their positions would be reversed. Why have you brought them into it Dogs are deserved wooden spooners and I’ve never said anything otherwise I also haven’t claimed that the dragons should have / would have got the spoon if not for the draw Nothing that could even remotely be construed that way Yet again you’re inventing an argument to your own position and attributing it to me… but it’s got nothing to do with anything I’ve said My position on the Dragons draw is justified by their finishing position once their draw started to even out
Albo
Roar Rookie
Bird could be a 2nd banjo player ? :silly:
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
It's just best to admit you are wrong sometimes instead of manipulating the truth. If you or I tip a team to get the spoon and they don't, it's no big deal to say we weren't right. The draw isn't even close to being able to manipulate the Saints into the 8 and the Dogs into a clear last spot, it's a minor issue. Do you really think if those teams swapped draws last season that they would swap spots on the ladder? As for Manly , I don't claim the draw or Covid has had anything to do with our good or bad recent seasons.
Cat Brown
Guest
If Hook was to be booted I won't be crying. We let McInnis go and sign McCullough. We let Dufty to and sign McGuire. I get the feeling Hook never got over being sacked by the Bronco's so he's building his Bronco's team at St George Illawarra. Why are we losing good local players to sign over the hill retiring Bronco's. How many games did McGuire play. Two or three. Suspended the rest of the time. McCullough played a couple before he got injured. Seriously the Dragons will never see the top 8 with Hook
The Barry
Roar Guru
In didn’t solely Come on… after 16 weeks they’d played the top 3 teams a combined total of once Played the top 6 just four times but had played the bottom 5 teams eight times You really can’t see how that imbalance would have an positive effect on a teams ladder position ???? You’re arguing for the sake of it And whether a team is wooden spoon favourites (which the dragons never were) or not of course you can have an easier or harder draw than other teams Saying “they’re the worst team so how can they have an easy draw” is borderline puerile
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
The worst team in the comp can't get a ''ludicrously soft draw''. We were wrong, they weren't the worst team in the comp, it was the Dogs. Would the Dogs have been in the 8 so deep in the season if they had the same draw as Saints? The answer is no and that clears up the fallacy that Saints were in the 8 solely on the back of the draw.
The Barry
Roar Guru
That’s all fine… Except I wasn’t talking about the soft draw being the reason the Dragons didn’t get the spoon I’m saying their ladder position - entrenched in the top 8 - for two thirds of the season was a false indication of where they were at because of the draw. They are very different things
The Barry
Roar Guru
If you’re going to count Illawarra’s premierships, you have to take their spoon :silly: :silly:
Dandragon
Roar Rookie
“This is a sporting forum not a political feminist platform.” I have NEVER made this my “feminist platform”, EVER. But you have made this a platform for your ray cist, s&xist, h0moph0bic, ultra conservative white Christian divisive views at every opportunity. I wish you’d keep your Murdoch infection to yourself…coz, like u say, this is a sport website.
Dandragon
Roar Rookie
”For the last time, leave me alone!” You do know that, if I choose to reply to you, you don’t have to reply, right? After asking you to respond without reference to my gender, you’ve used the label “feminist” twice in your response. Why are you so obsessed by the fact that I’m female? I’ve not made it an issue yet you persistently, rabidly, obsessively, do. Why is that? And, again, why can’t you respond to me without going down this female loathing thing you have going on? Oh, no! Did I lose my paragraph formatting with that edit? How will I ever sleep tonight???
Dandragon
Roar Rookie
“…find another avenue to vent your leftist feminist diatribe.” Show me one instance of my “leftist feminist diatribe”.
Dandragon
Roar Rookie
“Or rushing to “Like” comments that attack me to try to get under my skin.” Ha! I can like anything I bl00dy well like, thank you. As for getting under your skin - you flatter me. All with a click of a “like” button. Had I known your ego was that fragile, I would’ve been way more active in this regard. Thanks for the tip. Point taken.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
No he doesn't. He runs harder, tackles harder and has a nice passing game before the line.
Dandragon
Roar Rookie
“I don’t want you following me from Zero Tackle to The ROAR…” How vain can you be? My original posts predate your migration post your ZT eviction. And you know that yet you keep sprouting it to make yourself the victim…much like your privileged team.