Australia’s decision to load their batting order with left handers, and the prospect of a second day night Test to replace Perth, will give England a glimmer of hope that they can avoid a crushing defeat in the series that starts on Wednesday.
If we take weather out of the equation – and it could be a wet summer – I’m looking at a 4-1 series win to Australia, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s closer than that.
Conditions wise it’s not looking like a great series for spinners where we do have an advantage with Nathan Lyon over Dom Bess and Jack Leach.
The Gabba could do a lot, Adelaide does a lot. The MCG in the recent Shield game was a result wicket.
While it did get a bit two-paced, the ball was still coming through on day four so that’s set up for the quicks.
Overall though, our bowling has a bit more depth than England’s – especially with James Anderson already mising with a calf injury – and our batting is stronger.
From England’s perspective I think they’d be worried, if Ben Stokes bats at six, that he will be coming in at 4-50 quite a bit.
I’m not sure which of the four Tests England can win but man for man, day by day, session by session Australia are just going to be too strong, particularly with the ball.
And in Australian conditions Dave Warner, Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith will score more runs than England’s top three batsmen.
It’s a bit predictable but I expect Stokes to be England’s player of the series.
He hasn’t had much cricket but unless his finger is a real issue he’s a match winner, and if they are to win a Test he’ll have to play a significant factor in that.
He can score Test hundreds and even with his bowling he gets big players out because he swings the ball both way. He’s a big partnership breaker.
Ben Stokes. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Joe Root also has to have his best series in Australia for them to have a chance. He wasn’t bad last time, but he didn’t get a hundred.
Their X-factor with the ball is Mark Wood because he’s a bit different, yards quicker than everyone else in that team and goes wide on the crease. But he might only play three of five Tests.
For the Aussies, I think Smith will get back to his best in this series.
He’s talked about having a little bit of a tinker with his technique, which probably won’t surprise many people. He reckons his hands were a bit closed off recently and he wants to get back to where he was four years ago.
No Jofra Archer to put him under pressure is significant. None of those other bowlers looked like getting him out the whole series in 2019.
I think Smith will also be driven by a bit of friendly competition between him and Marnus, who has been the man in the last two summers.
It’s interesting that Smith talks about how he likes coming in under pressure and with Marnus batting well he’s generally come in and the score’s been okay – that’s a little bit of a shift from everything being on his shoulders. If they have big partnerships it’s going to be hard for the English.
Smith might not get back to 2019 efforts, averaging 100, but I think he’ll be the dominant batter.
Pat Cummins will be the dominant man with the ball. I’m backing him to thrive in his own game with the captaincy.
Many bowlers who have done it, like Imran Khan, Courtney Walsh, Shaun Pollock, Bob Willis, have seen their bowling averages improve with the extra responsibility.
Losing Tim Paine late and having Cummins take the reins won’t be that unsettling. I think Australia have been preparing for this for a while – and he will get support from Smith and Marnus. Alex Carey – even though he’s on debut and will be nervous – is a leader.
Patty will be able to bowl the way he normally does and he’ll want the ball in his hand when Root and Stokes are in there.
Pat Cummins and Joe Root. (Photos by Getty Images).
As an X-factor I want to see progression in Cameron Green; I don’t want to make comparisons to Stokes.
If Jhye Richardson gets a game he’ll thrive with a point of difference to the others – he’s shorter, skiddier and bowls genuine out swingers.
There has been a lot faith shown in Marcus Harris and Travis Head with their selections.
For me it’s getting close to their last chances. Harris averages early 20s and Head’s is 39 but that’s beefed up with heaps of runs against Sri Lanka.
They’ve both got a mountain of runs in Shield cricket and hopefully they seize the moment – they’ve never been more experienced than they are now.
Technically, they’re very similar. And England will have hope they can expose them.
I’ve noticed a change in how left handers play compared to the past – the way lefties like Allan Border and Mark Taylor used to cut.
Modern left handers, and I don’t know if this is the influence of T20, but they don’t step across and hit down on the ball when they cut it. They don’t use their back foot in the same way – they just drop it and uppercut.
It’s hard to hit along the ground but when they middle it, it looks fantastic.
Head got caught at gully twice against India last time and I think against better bowling in Tests that technique gets found out.
Modern day right hand bowlers come a lot more around the wicket to lefties and that technique has really tested them.
Head has had a lot of scores in that 20-40 range so that suggests it’s not a pure technique issue and maybe a little bit of a mental issue. Maybe when he feels comfortable that’s a real danger sign for him.
Harris says he’s changed his game and averaged 50 for Leicester. I’m really excited to see what difference it’s made.
What I like most about Harris is he scores quickly. At this stage he’s a poor man’s David Warner but there are real hopes he can make that leap.
He’s got a lot of shots – drives well, pulls well, scores big at Shield level. He was impressive in his debut series. But a bit like Head was making starts and not making the most of it.
He was worked over in the 2019 series by Broad and co but so was Warner who’s one of the best openers that we’ve ever produced.
Both Head and Harris are free flowing, quick scoring game advancing left handers but these 20s, 30s or 40s – half of them have to be turned into hundreds.
They’ve been picked for two Test and you’d want to get at least one score there.
Harris probably has a little more leeway but if they fail Usman Khawaja can fill either role, opener or five, although he’ll be coming off no cricket.
Stuart Broad took 7-35 against Warner last Ashes. Anderson and Ollie Robinson also bowl well to lefties so I think England will be happy with the mix in the Australian batting order.
The lefties are the story this season.
Ace
Roar Rookie
Wrong Again..much like not being prepared to use your own sign in name
Got’im he’s gone.
Guest
Na. Gotta disagree. Way off. My prediction. Eng win toss, bat. Burns out first ball to in swinging Yorker from Starc. Eng in all sorts of trouble by lunch. All out by tea. Rain stops play. We’ll see who’s right.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
It was only idiots, led by Boof, who hated a batsman for not walking. We're the least likely to walk. I never did. What sort of hypocrite then turns on somebody doing the same? Broad will be bowl one incredible spell, I'm sure. Fingers crossed it's only one
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
Definitely an apt description of Broad at home in England. In each of 2009, 2013, 2015 and 2019 he has magically pulled at least one rabbit spell out of the hat at a key opportune moment. I never hated him like so many Aussies for not walking at TB 2013. I blamed the umpire for not giving him out in the first place.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Sounds like you are describing Broad too. Woakes and Robinson will get through some overs. I wonder if the Poms might consider using Bess instead of Leach given the number of lefties in our side?
Steele
Roar Rookie
My feeling is similar to Flems. I just see lots of runs from the big three of Warner, Labs and Smith. Our pitches are generally batter friendly, so I am sure England will make runs as well, but they don’t have Cummins and Hazlewood and they don’t have three great batters, they have one.
Steele
Roar Rookie
Did not know this, didn’t even know he played County. He hasn’t shown much form at all outside of Australian pitches then.
Steele
Roar Rookie
Totally agree, he is a man for a crisis and never a better compliment. And his recent stats are incredible anyway.
Steele
Roar Rookie
Stokes recent history has been much better than 37. Also, I’d expect English players to have lower batting averages due to their sporting wickets. Ours are flat. It’s the same reason South African bowlers have great figures. Their quicks have been historically great, but also benefit from some nice seaming wickets. Cummins figures are incredible when you think about it.
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
He's only 31. He's not exactly over the hill yet. He has some outstanding deeds left to do, and I am expecting two major innings at pivotal points in this coming series, and one major impact performance with the ball. Hopefully, Australia can limit his impact.
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
Ok … as long as it’s not considerably less than 40, I don’t care what his raw unadulterated, undissected average is. I do care what his strike rate is and that is 58, and that is deadly because match winners tend to score faster than their career strike rate when they play a big innings in a meaningful situation. Mark Waugh, for example, had a career strike rate of 52, which at face value, is only a touch above par, which I consider to be 50. However, ignoring his last day century in Adelaide against the Saffies in late January 1998 when runs were irrelevant, across the other 19 centuries he scored (in test cricket), Mark’s average strike rate was a whopping 66. While I watch the first day tomorrow, I am going to google every test innings of Stokes and identify which 50+ scores were meaningful and which weren’t. Kim Hughes 1980 challenged me to do this with Healy and how did that end for him? Yes, considering Australia had to stonewall out of their skins to survive the final day at Lords, I would consider Stokes’s ton there quite impactful, given the second innings actually had meaning on account of first innings scores being fairly close. It was only denied being a match winning innings on account of the concussion sub making its debut.
Kim Philby OBE OL
Roar Rookie
Ok I’ll bite…England’s puncher’s chance surely comes down to Ben Stokes who pound for pound is the best combatant on either side. Marvelous hook, quick feet, and just when the Aussie have the game in their hands, Ben Stokes will be there with the counter punch.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Sure. I looked through all his big scores. But if you can find a bunch of other match winning performances, I'll be happy to listen. I don't mind adding his 258 against South Africa even though that ended in a draw, as SA scored buckets of runs too. His ton at Lords in 2019 could have come close to being a crucial performance.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Sure I am just wondering whether his Test record matches up to some of the extravagant reverence for him. No doubt he is a great cricketer. But the batting record on its own in Tests doesn't really stand out, whichever way you cut it. So I'm beginning to think people have blown it up a bit on the back of Headingly, the World Cup final and all round white ball excellence.
ChrisH
Roar Rookie
3-0 to Australia. Two washouts. Just see our bowlers being the difference.
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
Yes, you certainly do (know a good cricketer when you see one) JN. I find all this talking down of Stokes's brilliance on the roar just simply staggering.
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
“Scoring quickly with the bat isn’t of great help if you don’t score many runs. Averages usually correlate to the number of big innings you score.” Scoring lots of runs is equally useless if you score them at snails’ pace. Scoring 100 at a S/R of 20 is of as little benefit as scoring 20 at a S/R of 100. However, pretending for a moment that averages don’t get massively padded, and also pretending that every batsman scores at the same rate every innings, having an average of 50 with a S/R of 70 is a far more terrifying prospect for opposition bowlers than one who averages 70 at a S/R of 50. Again, pretending for a moment padding doesn’t exist, I would prefer Smith’s numbers to more resemble Viv Richards’s i.e., average 50 and strike at 67 rather than average 62 and strike at 55. If you fuse their averages and strike rates together the way Renato and I like to do, they come out at 68 and 67 respectively, but … outstanding as he has been over the last 7 or 8 years, Smith is not quite Viv. “Averages usually correlate to the number of big innings you score.” Bu-lsh-t. So, let me see if I have this straight DaveJ: you divide number of innings per 50+ scores and treat it as gospel truth without even scrutinising every single innings to see how many times the player had no mathematical chance of reaching 50 due to going in with a declaration not far away, being left stranded not long after going in because the tail was blown away, going in a short time before time is called on a match that ends in a draw or going in with a limited amount of runs still to be scored for victory or even rain ending an innings or match a short time after the player went in? And I haven’t even mentioned disregarding junk runs when nothing was needed from the player, such as Agarawal’s 62 in the 3rd innings of the recently concluded test, for example. Stokes is a sleeping giant who only awakens from his slumber when his team need something special that nobody else in the team can even hope to deliver. Yet, you and most others define him by meaningless raw stats.
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
Just incidentally , I am not an England fan..I am also not a fan of Stokes the person. I didn’t like what I saw when he assaulted that man…. But I am absolutely a fan of Stokes the Cricketer ..Can they be separated ? Dunno ..I don’t like Dave Warner or Kevin Pietersen either ..but I do know a good cricketer when I see one.
Once Upon a Time on the Roar
Roar Guru
There have been more than a few POTM and POTS awards that were somewhat questionable to say the least, so best not to use it as any sort of meaningful yardstick.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Well you’d think such a match winner might have won quite a few. Or indeed was a match winner quite a few times. But I struggle to identify them. Vs NZ in 2015. Vs Bangladesh once. Vs Windies once. Headingly. So don’t see that middling level of run production and rate of big scores is offset by some kind of special record of turning matches. But as I said he’s been very good recently so certainly wouldn’t rule out him having a big impact. (But that wasn’t the question at issue here.)