The 16 NRL teams are taking their off-season break, gearing up for the final stretch of training and trials before season 2022 kicks off.
They all have high hopes for the season ahead but there can only be one winner and someone has to come last.
Penrith will be the team to beat while Melbourne, the Roosters, Rabbitohs and Manly are rated the main contenders to knock the premiers off their throne.
Here’s the best and worst case scenarios for each team in 2022, ranked by last season’s finishing positions.
Penrith Panthers
Best-case scenario
The easiest thing for bookmakers every year is to post the premiers as competition favourites even though only the Roosters of 2019 have successfully defended their title in the NRL era. But the Panthers deserve to be the team to beat – they have retained their premiership-winning squad except for second-rower Kurt Capewell and centres Matt Burton and Paul Momirovski.
Worst-case scenario
They won’t miss the finals and it would take a few unforeseen events for them to miss the top four with this squad – star halfback Nathan Cleary is on the mend after shoulder surgery and with so much of their attack centred around his playmaking, their title defence would be severely affected if he has any setbacks.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Best-case scenario
They could go one better than last season – if, and it’s a big if, their three main playmakers remain injury free, and avoid a suspension like the one Latrell Mitchell received late last season. Their middles are arguably the strongest in the NRL and Cody Walker will again be a prominent contender for the Dally M Medal.
Worst-case scenario
One or two key injuries and the Bunnies could fall back into the pack pretty quickly. For a title contender, their roster is a curious mix of experience and newcomers at both ends of the spectrum.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Melbourne Storm
Best-case scenario
They can again be the last team standing on grand final night – they’ve still got a classy spine, an imposing pack, strikepower in the outside backs and the best coach in the competition.
Worst-case scenario
The impending departures of Brandon Smith and Felise Kaufusi, along with the contract speculation about Cameron Munster and Harry Grant could become a distraction. Also, their depth has been depleted in the off-season following the losses of Sharks recruits Nicho Hynes and Dale Finucane, Josh Addo-Carr and Max King to Canterbury and Brenko Lee to the Broncos.
Manly Sea Eagles
Best-case scenario
If you squint you could see Manly holding up the trophy on grand final night but for that to happen they would not only need Tom Trbojevic to replicate his Dally M season and Daly Cherry-Evans to continue his impressive late-career form, they’d need a rising star like Josh Schuster to take another leap and become an elite player in this competition.
Worst-case scenario
The obvious answer here is that Trbojevic is again hampered by hamstring injuries and recent history shows, when he is out of the line-up, Manly struggle. With a top-heavy salary cap with DCE and the Turbo brothers chewing up a large chunk, coach Des Hasler needs to keep getting value for money out of the lesser lights on this roster.
Sydney Roosters
Best-case scenario
They can go all the way. There’s no doubt that if the Roosters avoid the wretched run of injuries that befell them in 2021 that they can be there on grand final night. Every team will claim at some stage this pre-season they’ve got ‘a good mix of youth and experience’ but this roster is the embodiment of it – a blend of hard-headed veterans, several stars in the prime of their careers, and a bumper crop of young talent rolling off the production line.
Worst-case scenario
Hopefully Luke Keary enjoys a successful return after tearing his ACL but if he is sidelined again or cannot recapture his superb form from 2019-20, the Roosters lack an experienced playmaker that is needed for any team to challenge for the title.
Maika Sivo (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Parramatta Eels
Best-case scenario
Even if all the cards fall their way, it’s hard to see this team lifting the premiership trophy in 2022. Parra don’t seem to have the player with wow factor like they did the last time they made a grand final a dozen years ago. A top-four berth is a possibility but may be the ceiling on their capabilities.
Worst-case scenario
The Eels could slip and slide out of the finals equation relatively quickly if their recruitment issues continue to be a distraction and any of their impending departees try to get a mid-season switch to their next club.
Newcastle Knights
Best-case scenario
After making first-round finals exits the past two years, it’s hard to see the Knights going any higher next year unless Kalyn Ponga is healthy all season and produces quality performances pretty much every week. Their pack is one of the best in the NRL and Dane Gagai solves a problem area at centre.
Worst-case scenario
The halves are a problem area and with Mitchell Pearce finishing his career in France, it means Newcastle head into the season with Jake Clifford and Adam Clune as their likely starting playmakers. Generating points was a major issue for the Knights last season and these two aren’t renowned as attacking dynamos so they could drop out of the finals equation unless Ponga can conjure up plenty of line breaks.
Gold Coast Titans
Best-case scenario
They can certainly get among the top-four equation if Fifita fires and they don’t have any injuries to their key players, particularly in the halves and hooker where their depth is not great.
Worst-case scenario
They’ve got talent in the spine but not a lot of experience so if Toby Sexton and Jayden Campbell suffer the dreaded second-year syndrome, the Titans could struggle to score points and drop out of the playoff picture.
Cronulla Sharks
Best-case scenario
They could rise to the fringe of the top four but probably lack the star power to take on the big dogs just yet. Their forward depth across the board is up there with the best packs in the NRL but they probably lack a dynamic scoring option or two out wide to be legitimate title contenders.
Worst-case scenario
They were unlucky to miss the finals in the last round of 2021 which ultimately came down to their inability to upset higher-ranked opponents. If that trend continues and they can’t settle on a halves combination, the Sharks could again be watching the playoffs from afar next year but they shouldn’t sink anywhere near wooden spoon territory.
Nick Cotric. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Canberra Raiders
Best-case scenario
As it stands, the Raiders would need a helluva lot to go right for them to break back into the top four. If Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad can rediscover his best after injury ruined last season for the fullback, then that would go a long way towards Canberra being able to score enough points to compete with the top teams.
Worst-case scenario
They look likely candidates for the lower half of the top eight but as we saw last season, they can blow leads and sometimes struggle to get out of second gear so the Green Machine may miss the finals again for a second straight year despite having a strong roster in pretty much every position on the field.
St George Illawarra Dragons
Best-case scenario
If the Dragons can get the best of their oldies and their young guns fire, they could be a challenger for one of the last spots in the top eight. They need captain Ben Hunt injury free and to find him a complementary halves partner from the likes of Jayden Sullivan, Talatau Amone and Mbye, or perhaps Jack Bird.
Worst-case scenario
They get off to a slow start, the fed-up fans start raging about Anthony Griffin’s position – there’ll be some hashtag along the lines of #TimeToHookGriffin – and the gloomy atmosphere affects the younger players.
New Zealand Warriors
Best-case scenario
Their roster construction over the past couple of years has been strong with Addin Fonua-Blake and Reece Walsh coming on board while Shaun Johnson’s recent return gives them more attacking flair. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck’s switch to rugby is a body blow but the Warriors have genuine depth in all positions and could threaten for the top four if they click in 2022.
Worst-case scenario
They’re facing a third straight season playing away from home, basing themselves at Redcliffe and crossing their fingers they’ll be able to play some games in New Zealand. The fatigue of their unique circumstances could be a factor and despite showing plenty of resilience over the past two years, the Warriors still haven’t been able to crack the finals and could again finish in purgatory of the 10th to 14th range.
Wests Tigers
Best-case scenario
Probably ninth, as painful as that might sound to fans. It’s hard to see this roster making the finals but that shouldn’t matter. Even if the team isn’t in contention for a playoff berth for the majority of the season it’s not the end of the world as long as they’re improving and not taking on any more bad contracts.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Worst-case scenario
They could end up with the wooden spoon, particularly if the noise around Michael Maguire’s tenure starts up again and they make a mid-season switch of coaches. Their depth chart is littered with a lot of squad members with minimal NRL experience and after already starting the season with Adam Doueihi rehabbing his ACL tear, they can’t afford any more injuries to key players.
Brisbane Broncos
Best-case scenario
Adam Reynolds stays healthy, he gets a complementary halves partner from Tyson Gamble, Albert Kelly, Billy Walters or Kotoni Staggs, the young forwards keep developing and the white noise around Kevin Walters’s position as coach quickly dies down. If these things happen, the Broncos could be a contender for the finals but are highly unlikely to be a genuine title chance.
Worst-case scenario
The Broncos are super thin, especially if Adam Reynolds, Kotoni Staggs or Payne Haas get injured. Many of their squad members are still a couple of seasons away from hitting their prime while others like Jamayne Isaako, Tesi Niu and Thomas Flegler have been way too inconsistent to be considered sure things to support the three main stars in a playoff push.
North Queensland Cowboys
Best-case scenario
If they can make Townsville a fortress again, the Cowboys could be on the fringe of the top eight and potentially even break into the finals. But they need to settle on a halves combination quickly and for Jason Taumalolo and Valentine Holmes to live up to their price tags.
Worst-case scenario
They faded swiftly in the second half of last season when a few injuries struck – their depth is slightly improved in 2022 but still not enough to cover sustained absences from their better players. If Todd Payten’s approach doesn’t start to bear fruit in the first half of the season, they have the potential to again finish among the also-rans.
Canterbury Bulldogs
Best-case scenario
If all their new players strike up combinations quickly and the spine can finally become settled, this team on paper can challenge for a top-eight spot. After four straight years among the also-rans, Dogs fans will just be happy to move out of the cellar.
Worst-case scenario
Jack Hetherington, Tevita Pangai jnr and Luke Thompson need to avoid their regular judiciary dramas or the Dogs will again be shuffling their squad around on a weekly basis. It’s not easy to get instant success with so many new parts from different clubs on the same page so Trent Barrett will have his work cut out meshing his various recruits with his squad to form a functioning team.
Paul Suttor
Expert
Dragons are a strong chance. Don’t think Cowboys will end with spoon. Warriors always combustible. Knights a smokey if Ponga gets injured
Jacko
Roar Rookie
I think the Warriors should move to Redcliffe permanently. Create a 2 team town for next year. They are definately not representing Auckland or NZ in any way. Never really have!
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
My point was more the fact that Melbourne choked in that finals game against the Panthers, The Storm with C Smith are a far different team than the 21 side and it will happen a bit more than it used to. I'm not saying that Parra or Arthur are anywhere near the class of Melbourne or Bellamy, just saying that they had a pretty good season and I think they will go allright next year :thumbup:
no one in particular
Roar Guru
During Arthurs tenure, the Storm have won as many premierships as Parra has won finals games. But this year Parra beat a team with a points difference of -143, so all is forgiven
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
2021 :thumbup:
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Storm actually win big games, they don't go missing :thumbup:
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
Storm scored 4 tries in 160min against Parra and lost both games :thumbup:
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Parra scored 4 tries in 240 minutes against Penrith. They are a long way off the top teams
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Fair enough. Tho your comment was a reply to me saying Tigers won't get the spoon - because the Warriors are more vulnerable. So you can see how I might have assumed the Tigers were relevant to the discussion : )
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Eels had three losses to Panthers - by 1 point, 2 points (controversially) and 40 points (fielding a reserve grade team). And the Rabbitohs were flogged twice by the Storm as bad and worse than Eels were beaten by Manly... while Manly for their part were flogged by a collection of other teams. So it's a bit hard to see how you interpret this round robin of results as evidence that the Eels have 'bogies to battle' while Souths and Manly apparently don't...?
Adzy
Roar Rookie
All that effort but I never said the Tigers were gona be spoon tho. I don't even understand why you are comparing the two as I didn't even mention the Tigers. Just that the Warriors wont be spoon. I think both will finish similar standings. Games not played on last years stat sheet. SJ play less than half the games Peachey did so stats of course will favour him. Love your optimism for your team tho, good luck with that in 2022.
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
No way Warriors are a wooden spoon contender. . Any particular reason you say that? The reasons I think the Warriors will struggle to finish ahead of the Tigers: Their top Try Assist provider was – wait for it – Chad Townsend with a measly 16. And he’s gone. CTH provided a negligible 3 assists. In comparison, the much maligned Luke Brooks provided 23. Warriors top Run Metres were provided by RTS. And he’s also gone. DWZ provided a handy 2,657. But Walsh will be fullback, and his average RM per game is just 102m. Maumalo, Nofa and Laurie for the Tigers all provide more RM. Top try scorer for the Warriors, the much hyped Walsh with 9. For the Tigers, the much criticised Ken Maumalo with 15. Warriors top 5 try scorers combined for a total of 36 tries. Tigers top 5 scored a combined 55. Warriors top 4 line breaks (minus RTS) total 40. Tigers top four total 53 line breaks. The addition of Peachey, Hastings and Gildart will improve Tigers attack. Hang on you say, Johnson will improve Warriors attack. But his 5 try assist for 21 season lag well behind Peachey’s 9. The only area the Warriors performed better than Tigers in 21 was defence. But the Tigers only need to improve their defence by conceding one less try every three games to take them ahead on that metric as well. Again, Peachey and Hastings will improve that area (Peachey made 70 more tackles than Mbye who he is replacing, and missed 10 less). So, you may be right that Warriors won’t end 22 with the spoon. But there is stronger evidence for it heading to them than to the Tigers. Happy New Year : )
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Every year their name is thrown around as spoon contenders, yet they have never finished last
Monorchid
Roar Rookie
I paid up my membership dues for the Broncos a few months ago. So I'd like to see the team do well. Unfortunately, I think Paul's worst case scenario smacks of a truer analysis. The comment about the terror of injury to key players strikes a chord. I also hope that the club is not making a past mistake that I think it made with Milford by expecting Reynolds to win games almost by himself. I struggle to see the Broncos doing better than finishing at the top of the bottom eight. Merry Christmas to you all, and I hope to join you again when next season starts.
Malo
Guest
2020s decade of the Panthers and Roosters
Adzy
Roar Rookie
No way Warriors are a wooden spoon contender.
mudchooks
Roar Rookie
Unfortunately I can’t see a great deal changing from this year to next. Penrith, Roosters, Storm will all be up there as usual. No reason Parra can’t be in with a shot just have to manage their momentum throughout the season. Manly need key players to stay healthy but also need a top line hooker. Rabbitohs are unproven without Reynolds and also lost Bennet, wouldn’t be surprised to see them slide down the ladder. Gold Coast have too many rookies in key positions. Knights don’t have enough quality spread across the field. Sharks potentially best improvers. All others making up numbers.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
The best and worst of possibilities for some teams isn't clear well into the season, let alone well before it's started. A few examples are Manly after 4 rounds where nobody considered the top 8 a possibility let alone the 4 and then when the bunnies were flogged by over 50 points twice within a few weeks, they were considered no chance of a title or GF. The Eels were completely written off before the finals and the Pennies were written off by many with a wounded Cleary and a loss in the first round of finals. Luckily , 22 will throw up a few scenarios that weren't on the radar like just about any other season.
Kent Dorfman
Roar Rookie
either that or he's noted what Ash Taylor & Milford have done - have 1 good year to sign the mega dollar contract and then play like crap for the remainder of the contract. Unfortunately for NCC's she's a 10 year deal so 6 more years to go
Kent Dorfman
Roar Rookie
absolutely, that’s what the bookends are for, the initial hit ups, he should stand a bit wider so he’ll be up aginst smaller backs. maybe because the team have been so crap lately he’s been trying to do it all?