'Double, double, toil and trouble; fire burn, and cauldron bubble!' My 2022 AFL ladder predictions

I am particularly proud of my AFL ladder predictions last year. Most importantly, I beat the kids. I picked the Cats top four, Essendon in the top eight.

I predicted the demise of the Hawks. Even West Coast Eagles’ dramatic fall. I had them at seventh and they only just underachieved that. But in the spirit of total honesty and the risk that some commenter will look up my predictions of last year, I was more than a little bit off on Richmond’s eleventh position.

Melbourne’s meteoric rise and consummated premiership certainly took me by surprise.

Some may say that it is a bit premature to predict the ladder before the practice games. I say that it is most appropriate. The practice games give no real indication of the actual season. The smoke and mirrors only deceive and give promise to hopeful fans.

The teams have pushed the required players into retirement. The draft recruits have been contracted, not that that really impacts on the 2022 season in any case. The older players have been traded.

Number 1, Melbourne. Now that was a hard choice. A team that was constantly undervalued in 2021. Setup for failure. But no, they where solid all season and hardened up in the finals.

They are the team to beat. And every coaching team will be gunning for them. Like the Baldrick’s of the AFL, each with their cunning plan to geld and defeat the current champions.

Number 2, Bulldogs. When I keyed this team in, I felt shooting pain in my fingers. I kept getting these flashes back to 2017, the hangover. Can they do a Richmond double pike? But no, they have a healthy Marcus Bontempelli. They earned a spot in the grand final. Up until half way through the third quarter, they could have taken the ultimate prize.

Number 3, Geelong. Just a kick away from the minor premiership last year. I think more likely a poor coaching decision. They produced an ordinary finals performance but where far from the only ones. Some retirements, possibly a new ruckman, or maybe at least a ruckman in Johnathon Ceglar.

With a fit Jeremy Cameron, Mitch Duncan and Patrick Dangerfield, they will be up there again. The danger is that some of the oldies will get injured.

(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Number 4, Port. They were good enough through the home-and-away in 2021 and will be in 2022. Some question their finals nerves. But this won’t stop their solid home-and-away performance.

Now, this is my top four at the end of the season. I think these teams will fight it out and I am unsure who will get the big prize. But the teams beneath don’t seem to be on the same level.

Number 5, Brisbane. Although Brisbane finished fourth last year, they where up and down like the Assyrian empire. I believe that apart from the Eric Hipwood injury, this reflected some structural deficiencies in their game. Their backline lacked some keys player.

Joe Daniher proved to be unable to mark by strength rather than leading. His tackle and chasing was appalling but his dramaturgy was effective. The Lions do have some exciting players such as Lincoln McCarthy, Lachie Neale, Dayne Zorko and Charlie Cameron. Consistency matters.

Number 6, GWS. Greater Western Sydney are almost always in the mix but can’t go on with it. It doesn’t help that one of their stars, Toby Green, excels in being rubbed out for indiscretions. His absence for the first month in 2022 will certainly be felt.

Number 7, Saints. The Saints disappointed in 2021. There were injuries but there were in all teams. They seem solid, even if they occasionally seem chokey up forward. Is the jury still out on Brett Ratten?

Is a great coach but with no luck so far? I think this season both he and St Kilda need to push forward. They have the skilled players and finally with a bit of experience. They should push into the eight.

Number 8, Sydney. The Swans looked exceptional last year. Considering they had to be on the road a good deal of the latter part of the season. They surprised a few teams last year but they will be waiting for them in 2022.

(Photo by Steve Bell/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Number 9, Essendon. I thought the Bombers played above themselves to make the finals last year. A harder draw and a consolidation year will see them just miss the finals. If they work on the backline and perhaps develop a full forward, they should come bounding back in 2023.

Number 10, Carlton. I think the bottom of the eight teams are quite ordinary. Carlton should be able to push up and penetrate for a finals berth. But that has been said for the last five years. Another coach, not a first choice, maybe something will click. Otherwise, the Blues are stuck in the doldrums.

Number 11, Fremantle. Fremantle have been fighting hard to escape the Ross Lyon shackles. I thought this season, they would do it. Higher efficiency, higher scores and thus enough wins to break into the eight. But it looks like omicron will banish them to the Eastern States.

Oh dear. I do feel for David Mundy and the now svelte Nath Fyfe. Another wasted year.

Number 12, West Coast Eagles. West Coast have the players to be a top four side. 2021 was an implosion. Their game plan was strange. And when they got belted, they turned to Ross Lyon’s methods. It was not pretty. I think the unkindest cut was the moniker, a herd of Bambi’s.

So Adam Simpson, has a team of champions but no working game plan. How did he survive the sack? Surely it is just a matter of time, unless, he has been secretly working on one. To make matters worse, it is looking very likely they will play no home games. And we all know how the Eagles are away from home.

Number 13, Richmond. Most are predicting a Richmond bounce. I don’t think I can remember a team that fell from first to eleventh and bounced back into the top four. Richmond last year lost their way. It wasn’t injuries. All sides had them.

The stand rule and the six six six rule at the centre bounce destroyed the Tigers game plan. No wonder Steve Hocking is not popular in Tigerland. So Richmond has kept all their coaches. Can they come up with a new game plan? Do they still believe it was just all the injuries?

I believe the only way that the Tigers can come back from the wilderness is if they devise a new game plan, drilling their players preseason and be on the same page for Game 1. Tom Lynch needs to play like a $1.5M forward. Dustin Martin need to be physically and emotionally in top form.

Number 14, Gold Coast. Is fourteenth. A consolidation or is it a progression. Chock full of young talent, they should be pushing into a soft top eight envelope, not trading in the coach. The loss of Ben King won’t help the team or the coach.

Number 15. Collingwood. 2021 was Collingwood’s annus horribilis. In fact, all started with the draft and trade period of 2020. A new coach is there to try and right the ship. De Gooey hasn’t helped. I think the Pies will be happy with fifteen. Play the kids, keep the miscrients out of trouble and try to trade them.

Number 16, North Melbourne. North Melbourne showed promise last year. The green shoots were apparent. I think they will grow.

Number 17, Hawthorn. A new coach, one of their own, coming in trying to prune the deadwood. Only shipped out one player but may have lost the rest of the team. He may be a genius. But I think he might be an unpopular coach with a team of very young players, old previously injured imports and just old players. Alastair Clarkson was good for four games a season just on raw cunning and sneaky tactics. Sam Mitchell won’t win those games.

Number 18, Adelaide. Adelaide did win some big games at home last year. Not in the least, the first round against Geelong. But they are raw, with half a dozen oldies. I think they will struggle and offer their coach up for sacrifice.

So this is my predicted ladder. What is yours?