With the NRL season just over a week away, here’s my predicted final ladder for the home-and-away season.
16. Canterbury Bulldogs
The Dogs haven’t put together a roster so much as they have done the R and R equivalent of fishing with a stick of dynamite. They’ll win more than the three games they won last year, but won’t be as tough and combative on a week-to-week basis as they were in 2021.
At least five years away from being a legit top-eight chance, and yes as an Eels tragic that is a smile I have on my face. Have fun next year, Reed Mahoney.
15. Wests Tigers
I went with the devil I know here. When I think of the Tigers, for some reason I just keep getting mental images of a mouse on a running mill.
I have absolutely no confidence that they won’t win the spoon, but the Dogs still don’t have anyone remotely resembling a proper halfback on their roster, so the NRL’s resident nomadic tribe will manage to finish 15th. Then again…
14. North Queensland Cowboys
Could be higher if I’m being truthful, certainly above the Broncos and Dragons, but only if they get even halfway close to value out of the playmaking trio of Chad Townsend, Tom Dearden, and Scott Drinkwater. Valentine Holmes starting at a new position for the third straight season is not a good sign for a guy on his money.
13. Brisbane Broncos
Adam Reynolds will give them some direction and a much better kicking game, but they still lack the creativity in the the other three skill positions. If they win eight games this year and improve their diabolical defence, that will be a success.
12. St George Illawarra Dragons
The best of the bottom five. Their young talent is exciting, but way too raw to influence the results of a team that is still run by the likes of Ben Hunt, Andrew McCullough, Jack de Belin, Tariq Sims, and Josh McGuire. Better years ahead of them, if, and that’s a big if, they remain patient with these young guys. We know how much the Dragons love to sign 30-somethings.
11. Canberra Raiders
Would have been higher, possibly even seventh, until the just released news that prized recruit Jamal Fogarty has a serious knee injury that will see him out until at least August. The Green Machine just can’t take a trick.
(Photo by Ashley Feder/Getty Images)
10. New Zealand Warriors
Living out of a suitcase just makes it too hard, especially for a team that just can’t seem to settle on a spine for more than two consecutive seasons it seems. Out of favour now are Kodi Nikorima and Chanel Tevita-Harris, in come former Titans halfback Ash Taylor and prodigal son Shaun Johnson. To make matters worse, the noise that prodigy Reece Walsh wants out just won’t go away.
9. Newcastle Knights
They won’t want to admit it, but I’m guessing they are already missing Mitchell Pearce based on what we saw in the pre-season. This team is starting to look more and more like the Eels teams circa 2009-14 that were heavily reliant on a superstar fullback.
8. Gold Coast Titans
The Titans have some questions to answer, particularly around their spine. The loss of the steadying influence of halfback Jamal Fogarty will be critical when things turn against the Titans, as they inevitably will.
There is a lot of exciting creative talent in the quartet of AJ Brimson, Jayden Campbell, Toby Sexton, and young hooker Aaron Booth, but it’s a very young combination, with few repetitions between them. They are the very definition of a .500 team.
7. Cronulla Sharks
If there is a team to crash the top-six party, I sense it’ll be the Sharkies. Some astute signings, the brightest young coach in the league – they should be better than the scrappy but inconsistent team from the last two years. The halves are a tricky puzzle to solve given that both first choice halves Matt Moylan and Nicho Hynes are essentially five-eighths, but their first choice halfback in Brayden Trindall had a shocking pre-season.
6. South Sydney Rabbitohs
If there is a potential slider out of the top six, it will be the Bunnies, unless Tom Trbojevic misses a large chunk of the season. The loss of Adam Reynolds is obviously significant, and while Lachlan Ilias looks pretty good, as does Blake Taaffe, neither have the experience that Reynolds possesses. This could be the year they take a step back in the pecking order.
5. Manly Sea Eagles
If Turbo is fit for at least 18 games, they should win at least 14 of those. If not…
4. Sydney Roosters
They’ve got too much talent coming back from injury not to be in the top four, but possibly there might be enough coming back from injury to genuinely give the title a shake. 2022 could be their year.
3. Parramatta Eels
I don’t believe in premiership windows per se, but we’re unlikely to have a better chance in the short term. I just have a really good feeling. It’s feeling like 2001 again.
2. Penrith Panthers
Ivan Cleary is pretending to be pissed about the trial result, but be assured they’ll be there again this year.
1. Melbourne Storm
Until they take a serious dive I’m never predicting them to slide out of the top 4.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
My concern is what happens if they start 2 from 6, does Hook stick with his kids or does he try to “fix” the problem with veterans. Does he try to sign another ex Bronco on the wrong side of 30 ?
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
That's fair and there will be teething periods while they get used to the weekly grind of the NRL. I'm tipping them to hit the ground running and play finals this year on the back of our young talent
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
I think Gus has got it right. They've just got to bite the bullet, relocate permanently to Campbelltown, (I know they are building their High Performance Centre at Concord), and then copy the Panthers blueprint. They just have to acknowledge that they aren't a destination location, recruitment is not their answer, youth development is. My beloved Eels used to be the gold standard for this, and then after Brian Smith left our juniors system was left to waste. It's taken the best part of a decade under Brad Arthur to get it going again, and now we are just starting to see the first green shoots of that work starting to come through. The Tigers just have to be prepared to do that. Tim Sheens will certainly help.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
The bottom 8 is always a bit of a lottery, because they are affected so much more by injuries or suspensions, and they tend to beat each other a lot more. Their week to week efforts obviously vary much more than the top teams do. The Cowboys are a bit of a wild card I agree, but they do have points in them. Teams that can score points rarely finish at the bottom. Their defence is diabolical, and they can switch off at any moment, but they can also play some inspired footy at time as well, particularly at home. Their key guys are Scott Drinkwater & Reece Robson, and obviously JT13. The Dragons may improve more quickly than I'm predicting, but I think they are a year or two away from those young guys being influential enough. I had the Raiders as high 7th initially, but the loss of Fogarty is a killer blow. I mean, do you really see them shaking the top 8 with either Sam Williams or Matt Frawley as their starting half till August ? The Warriors have a quality pack, and they've shown the last two years that they can play some inspired footy when they put it together. I just think there's too much individual talent there to finish in the bottom four over the course of 24 rounds. The Tigers, I have zero faith in them.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
The Dogs have added talent, but that doesn't mean they're going to be better this year, at least not significantly. They still don't have a halfback or a hooker and no clear choice of fullback. Their 3 best forwards, (Thompson, Hetherington & TPJ) are serious judiciary risks, their new 5/8 has barely played the position the last two years and the rest of their recruits are outside backs, most of whom they paid massive overs for. Look, the Tigers may bottom out finally, but I cannot see the Dogs getting out of the bottom 4.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
I did say that the Dragons have better days ahead of them, IF they show patience with their young talent. I just don't see it happening this year, or until those young players have complete ownership of the team.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Not if I break Tommy's legs !!!
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Like I said, you guys have signed a whole bunch of talent, but it's gonna take Baz most of the year to figure out what he's really got. It kinda reminds me of the Eels circa 1996. We signed the Canterbury Four, (sorry lol), Adam Ritson, Gary Freeman, Peter Johnstone & Aaron Raper, and it basically took Brian Smith all of that season to figure out who we were. The biggest issue is who is going to play halfback. You don't really have a true halfback on your roster. If you're picking Averillo or Wakeham there you're gonna struggle, but I don't see any other options unless you play Burton there. That's a big ask. 2023 will be better when you get Reed Mahoney, this one hurts even more than Andrew Ryan. That said, I think you've got more points in you than the Tigers, so maybe the Tigers finally bottom out. But don't take this the wrong way, I'm not cheering for you to get off the bottom of the ladder, or for the Broncos to climb either. In fact all I've got to do is find a way to break Tommy Turbo's legs without going to jail and this little Eel will be a happy boy, lol.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Cheers mate.
Birdy
Roar Rookie
My good old tigers aren't far off their 20 year rebuilding plan. A bottom 4 finish should give them plenty to work with for next year. '25 will be he hear before you can drive from Leichardt to Campbelltown. Hopefully they will consider their loving fans ( like me) and get rid of the fluro orange, bring back the gold and get rid of the under arm stripes.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
Good list.
Mel Storm
Guest
Hear hear, John! De belin is a disgrace to rugby league and the sooner saints punt him the better.
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Nice article Brett. Agree largely with your top 8, with perhaps a bit of shuffling, but I think they'll all be there or thereabouts. Your bottom 8 though I find less convincing. Cowboys have not shown anything either in recruitment or trials that suggests they will better last year's effort. Bulldogs looked utterly lost in trials. As did Broncos sans AR. Knights would be working miracles to end the season that far up the ladder. Warriors too remain unconvincing for mine - Dragons and Raiders should comfortably outpace them over the duration. Tigers on the other hand looked like a slightly improved brand of mediocre - which for me keeps them around their traditional 12 - 13 spot.
steveng
Roar Rookie
My predictions end round 25 2022, pretty much the same but no way the Bulldogs will be last, too much talent for them to repeat 2021, Tigers are a big chance. 1. Storm 2. Panthers 3. Bunnies 4. Sea Eagles 5. Eels 6. Roosters 7. Knights 8. Raiders 9. Titans 10. Dragons 11. Bulldogs 12. Broncos 13. Sharks 14. Warriors 15. Cowboys 16. Wests Tigers
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
A bit harsh on my Dragons. Tariq Sims and Josh McGuire have very little influence on the team so not sure why you mentioned them. We have raw players for sure but have gotten rid of the deadwood so will surely improve.
Harvey Wilson
Roar Rookie
I can see Bulldogs doing better, although their spine is still pretty poor. Tigers or Cowboys finishing last. The bunnies slide could be even worse without Reynolds. Brisbane to do better than 13th, but again, their spine is pretty bad. Manly for premiership! :shocked: Note: I am a totally biased Manly fan.
RLFan
Roar Rookie
It's nice that you have a good feeling about Parramatta this year , as a Bulldog supporter I wish I could say the same. However I question your prediction that they will come last again, surely that can not happen and if it does, with the players they have brought in, you can expect the tar and feathers to be out for certain individuals in the coaching staff.
Tony
Roar Guru
Dang whippersnapper!
Tony
Roar Guru
You really have no filter do you John.
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
Good morning EagleWal. Mature people are sometimes reluctant to reveal their age however I’m guessing that Tony is nowhere near the age that a gentleman named Methuselah was alleged to have lived to. Change of topic. I have just read the David Riccio article on Jack de Belin in the DT. The “case” is closed however I shake my head in disbelief at some of de Belin’s comments. All I will say is that so called “tough times” can be avoided if a person doesn’t place themselves in certain situations & perhaps possess strong morals. Sermon over.