This is what I learned from the weekend’s footy action.
1. The Blues are good, but top-four talk needs to settle
The Carlton faithful are rightfully excited after going 3-0 for the first time in a decade. However, they still aren’t anywhere near the top echelon of teams in the competition and have plenty to improve on.
The Blues’ best is incredibly good, which inspires confidence that they can match it with the best teams in the competition, but their fade-outs during games is something that needs to be addressed.
Carlton have won five quarters out of a possible 12, which would read like a team that is 1-2 and not 3-0. But the fact is that they’ve been dominant during their winning quarters, winning by 40, 28, 24, and 34, which has won them games.
There are two problems with this. Against the best teams (Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney), you can’t only play a half of high-quality footy. If you do, you lose.
The other problem is that you give average teams a chance. Just like they did with Richmond when 20 points down in the final term, and like they did against Hawthorn when letting them hit the front in the final term after being the best part of five goals down.
They have the ability to be a premiership threat, but only if they address the issue over the coming months.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
2. The Tigers’ season is hanging on by a thread after three weeks
Is it the end for the Tigers? You would be a brave person to suggest there is still a premiership threat going by what we’ve seen over the last three weeks.
The Tigers’ worst fears have become reality early in this season. Dion Prestia went out of the side with an injury. He is arguably the Tigers’ best clearance midfielder. And Dustin Martin has taken time away from the game for personal reasons.
In both losses against St Kilda and Carlton, the Tigers were beaten by 18 and 11 clearances respectively. They were also beaten by 26 in contested possessions, and 21 in contested possessions against the Blues.
Footy can be a simple game at times, and if the Tigers don’t start winning the hard ball, they won’t win many games in 2022.
With Prestia, Martin, and Kane Lambert all seemingly missing at least another month of footy, the Tigers are going to need something special from the likes of Trent Cotchin, Jack Graham, and Shai Bolton to beat the likes of the Dogs, Melbourne, and the West Coast in WA to resurrect their season.
3. Craig McRae is the man the Pies needed
The Magpies gave up a five-goal lead at the start of the last term to be beaten by the Cats in what was a bitter pill to swallow considering they should have won the game, especially if they kicked straight early.
The Magpies accounted for St Kilda and Adelaide in easy fashion in the opening two rounds, before facing a big task against a seasoned and hardened Geelong team.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The footy the Pies played in quarters one and three in particular was fantastic. They played a ferocious style of footy, which didn’t allow Geelong any space and time on the ball and therefore created a lot of scoring opportunities, which ended up with them having more scoring shots than Geelong.
The Pies’ players have picked up the game plan very quickly, and McRae is the calm, mature presence this young group and rabid supporter base has been calling out for for years.
If they continue playing in this vein, they’ll be very much in the frame for a finals berth, which will be a shock too many.
4. Let’s talk about the Dockers
I can’t understand the Dockers and I can’t really place them in any group of teams, which is probably the beauty of the first few rounds of the season.
They are 2-1 after an unconvincing win against the Crows, a terrible effort against the Saints, and a smacking of a very undermanned West Coast. The positive is that there is lots of upside to this team.
They have been without their champion Nathan Fyfe all season, Brennan Cox has been in and out of the side, Matt Taberner played his first game for the season with three goals, and Sean Darcy isn’t anywhere near fit.
If these four players can get healthy for the entirety of the season (or at least the majority of it) they become a finals threat.
The next three weeks will tell us where they are at with GWS at Optus Stadium, Essendon at Marvel Stadium, and Carlton at Optus Stadium waiting for them.
They are all winnable games and if they are 4-1 after five, they’ll probably play finals considering they should only improve throughout the season.
It’s a season-defining three weeks for young superstar Andrew Brayshaw, who needs to lead this team to the promised lands of September.
(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
5. Essendon need to find something quickly
Essendon are 0-3 and their season is on the line this week against Adelaide at Marvel Stadium in a game they simply must win.
The Bombers were diabolical against Geelong in Round 1, before having improved performances against both the Lions and Demons.
If they play in the manner they have for the last fortnight, they’ll beat Adelaide and probably Fremantle the following week, but does anyone trust this club or playing group?
The excuse of youth is starting to become a myth. The Bombers’ best players – the likes of Jake Stringer (27), Dylan Shiel (29), Dyson Heppell (29), Zach Merrett (26), Peter Wright (25), Darcy Parish (24) and Andrew McGrath (23) are now seasoned AFL footballers.
This should be the nucleus that is winning Essendon games, but it isn’t, and therefore something is wrong, considering all these guys are very talented footballers.
If they lose this week, the season is over and big questions need to be asked about this playing group, the coaching staff, and list management.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
Haven't seen Chuck, the Ha Ha man on Roar this season. Not exactly a site to behold!!
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
charlie and i prove we are gentlemen. Good looking as well.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
Ferel supporters? So what has changed?
Windrince
Roar Rookie
Usually nobody reads them because it's too much effort to go to the horse racing page I guess
1dawg
Roar Rookie
#bringbackBucks
M. Rockatansky
Guest
Interested to see round 6 - Freo V Carlton. Blues beat the dockers twice last year, though both matches I think were at MCG. Freo's backs are strong against a strong Blues forward line, and depending on who Freo has available, hopefully will be a strong contest in the midfield. Freo forward line could also consolidate between now and then. Don't know a heap about the Blues backline, but assume they are good given their wins. Hopefully will be a firecracker of a match.
Ed
Guest
3 Games played only.Hard to make summarise.Melb & Brisbane look the standouts.Hawthorn have the hardware,could really impress.Carton hype is 12-18 months premature.Not mobile enough. Geelong is a sleeper.Not sure if coaching promotes winning game plan.As always, luck with injuries will play a major part.Also Covid could wreck all the projections.Expect the unexpected.100 to one shot possibility this year. Ed
Jimmy Woods
Roar Rookie
Don’t disagree but let them run their guts out trying to attack, make mistakes, fall over & score a few wins against all odds.
Jimmy Woods
Roar Rookie
100% agree Peter, so much better to watch & they look like they’re enjoying playing football again. Much prefer they try to score rather than defend for grim death.
Mac
Guest
You lost me when you wrote this… “Against the best teams (Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney)…” Sydney is not one of the best teams
JamesH
Roar Guru
Eh, I think that's an overreaction re the Bombers. Firstly, you've listed a bunch of core players without even acknowledging the fact that half of them haven't played every game. Stringer has missed two and is still getting his groove back, Merrett has missed one and a bit (with another dozen to come) and Shiel has missed one and a bit. Walla and Langford are part of that core but you haven't named them because they haven't played. Nor has Snelling. Secondly, as disappointing as their footy has been so far, it's hardly panic stations. No one would have thought Essendon was a serious chance to contend this year unless they had been on Malthouse's kool-aid. All the talk was about whether or not they could back up last year's effort. If they end up missing finals it doesn't really change anything. Their focus is still on challenging 2-3 years from now. They just need to keep working to their game plan and getting time into their less experienced players like Ridley, Cox, Perkins, Jones, Reid, Snelling, Hind, Durham, Caldwell, Martin, Ham, BZT, Wanganeen, Baldwin and Hobbs. You could even throw Wright into that mix, as he's still yet to find his peak after a false start with the Suns.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
The Dockers scored 8.7 from turnovers . Coincidentally that score (55 points) is the winning margin.
Flagpies
Roar Rookie
All about finding a balance I reckon Pete. This manic game is good, mainly because of the team defensive pressure that allows us close space and force turnover on the ball carrier. We got opened up in the last, but that was more due to the cats beating us at our own game and probably a combo of them bringing and us running out of fuel. So balance needs to be found, can't sustain that all season. And that's all part of game development, as Fly alluded we're new to this and still learning. My guess is that is what Fly is trying to find balance, play tempo footy to nullify the oppositions momentum.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
yes, i was there too. Essendon had some ferel supporters in those days, a lot of skinheads at home games. I was very brave in early 1980s when i too went for the number one shaved look to overcome the stress of a receding hairline.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
I went to that round 4 game against Essendon at Waverley. From memory it was Anzac Day and I went with about 20 mates who I was playing footy with in the EDFL. After the game we had a bit of a dispute with a bus full of Essendon supporters after one of the guys on it spat at us as we were walking along the main road.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Most Pies fans are loving McRae's work thus far - there will always be the nuffies who post (and one did) "Not sure on this new coach". For the Pies we have been awful to watch since 2018 so seeing us play exciting footy is refreshing...I still feel we may be a bit like Teague's Blues when he started...it was all bright and positive and aggressive and high scoring and then they started getting opened up and smashed by being offensive and retreated somewhat into their shells. Hope not.
Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
Did not realise both of them had such good records after 14 rounds.
Flagpies
Roar Rookie
So there's been commentary around the blues game is not up to contending, Rooey and Kingy namely. Apparently something to do with contested footy or lack of. Yet NO ONE is questioning the sustainability of the Pies manic game. We're talking about a style that requires all day two way running. And we don't if the young guys have the tank to sustain it. Yet guys like Lyon and Kingy are touting them for finals. Why is no one questioning this?
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Both Carlton and Hawthorn won 13 of the first 14 games. Carlton lost 5 of the last 8 & Hawks lost 4 of the last 8. Hawks ended up on top with Blues 2nd. Carlton then lost both their finals games.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
You have been unimpressed by Freo so far. How many games do you think these guys played there? Mundy none, Fyfe none, Darcy 1 and a half, Tabs 1, Serong 1 and injured in the other. Add Cox missing for Kings 4 goal explosion. I say Freo has done well to win those games. Adelaide has since beaten Port and Saints beat Richmond, both flag fancies according to most.