The Roar’s State of Origin expert tips and predictions: NSW Blues vs Queensland Maroons Game 1

It’s State of Origin time! I’m so excited, like a kid at Christmas. 

State against State. Mate against Mate. Families are divided and friendships crumble. It’s just glorious.

Since Covid turned the world upside down, we are finally back in NSW for Origin 1. And with the Blues being the reigning champions, they will be welcomed to a huge cheer from their home fans that has been years in the making. 

Unless you have been under a rock, you would know that some of Brad Fittler’s selections more than raised a few eyebrows. Leaving out Josh Addo-Carr and Jake Trbojevic stunned many, while picking Tariq Sims and Jacob Saifiti confused the masses just as much. 

But there are many players that the Blues fans wholeheartedly agree with, especially the six, seven and 13. The Panthers trio of Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai and Isaah Yeo will be the biggest influence on the NSW side, with their talents undeniable and their combination a massive factor towards NSW success. And big boys Payne Haas and Junior Paulo look ready to hurt people.

And then we have the Queensland side, with a brand-new coaching team and a lot of new faces on the field. Billy Slater has gathered some dead set legends to join him up in the box, and it could be the start of something beautiful. 

The absence of Christian Welsh is a huge hit, and he will be sorely missed. But the inclusion of debutants Reuben Cotter and Patrick Carrigan, both workhorses and tackling machines, will have an immense impact on Queensland’s force.  Valentine Holmes is in career best form and loving life in the centres. And then of course you have Cam Munster and Ben Hunt – anything can happen when these two are on song.

I’m hoping for a close, tough game, with little stoppages and plenty of big hits. 

Remember to get your tips into the form below by 4pm (AEST) on Wednesday evening to be featured as part of the Crowd’s tips for Game 1.

I’m going to let our newest member of the experts panel start us off with his predictions for the big game. 

Kurt Gidley

Tip: NSW by 2 

I think it will be a low-scoring contest, I don’t think either side will get to 20 and I hope the referee doesn’t go too heavy with the penalties. Origin is at its best when the refs give the players a bit of leeway.

First try-scorer: Isaah Yeo

Man of the match: Damien Cook

Mary Konstantopoulos

Tip: NSW by 10

Given some of the strange selections that Brad Fittler has made for Game I, including the dropping of Josh Addo-Carr and selections like Jacob Saifiti and Tariq Sims, I am still confident that the Blues will win this game. Fittler has a history of making some wacky decisions and they generally pay off.

The Blues also have several of the in-form players in the competition including Nathan Cleary, James Tedesco, Junior Paulo or Cameron Murray.

Daly Cherry-Evans has also struggled at a State of Origin level. Given he is captain and will be directing the Maroons attack, this does not fill me with great confidence.

First try-scorer: Kotoni Staggs

Man of the match: Nathan Cleary

(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

AJ Mithen

Tip: Queensland by 4

I’m all in on Billy Slater this Origin series. He’ll have a similar impact to Fittler’s entry with New South Wales, picking a young side he’ll just point and shoot without the burden of having to think about things like ‘tactics’ or ‘structure’. 

Yeah, they’ll get tired. Yeah, the Blues will run 100% of their attack at Cobbo, Coates and Nanai (when he’s on). And yeah, Nathan Cleary’s kicking game will be solid as ever but foolish as I sound, I think the Maroons absorb all that and take game one in a good old-fashioned State of Origin ambush.  

First try-scorer: Josh Papalii

Man of the match: Tino Fa’asuamaleaui

Mike Meehall Wood

Tip: NSW by 14

The Panthers have lost once all year and this is essentially the Panthers plus, including the best of the team that beat them, Parramatta. There’s not much form in Origin, but if you want a clear thread, there it is.

Queensland have picked a lot of players on form, which I think people think is a good idea, but the sample size is quite small. Cobbo, Cotter and Nanai in particular are players that have been picked on what they might become, but currently aren’t. 

First try scorer: Brian To’o 

Man of the match: Nathan Cleary

Michael Hagan

Tip: Queensland by 4

My head says NSW, but my heart says Queensland and they’re a very strong chance to upset the Blues, particularly with Billy Slater coming in as coach. I think the fresh voices on the coaching staff will get the team revved up for a big performance.

First try-scorer: Selwyn Cobbo

Man of the match: Cameron Munster

Paul Suttor

Tip: NSW by 6 

Wighton will love being out wide in the centres and he can cash in on the quality service he will get from Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary.

First try-scorer: Brian To’o

Man of the match: Jack Wighton

Danielle Smith

Tip: Queensland by 6

I’m going the upset. I know the game is in NSW, the Blues have the shield and the experience, and it’s basically a Panthers side in different jerseys. But like I said in my piece last week, something magnificent is brewing in Qld. The coaching staff are an absolute dream team, and the team list reads brilliantly. Cameron Munster will be on fire and selecting Ben Hunt at number nine is a sensational move. He was instrumental to the Maroons in their game three win last year, and he will do it again here. 

First try scorer: Valentine Holmes

Man of the Match: Ben Hunt

Remember to get your tips in on the form below by 4pm on Wednesday to be counted as part of The Crowd for Game 1.