Super Rugby tipping panel – semi-finals: The quartz quartet

And then there were four. And it’s certainly three of the four that were expected at the start of the year, but was the fourth part of that set as well?

Whoever you did or didn’t have in your final four, the quartet we are left with have been consistently the best through the back half of the season.

And they’re here because they’ve done the little things better, and they’ve done them with precision, accuracy and timing throughout. Or mostly throughout. There are certainly elements of these four teams’ games that you can set your watch by.

So, with that possibly laborious link to the header out of the way, the semi-finals await. And it’s time to offer a bit more than just a couple of tips.

For the sake of creating another line of discussion, this week I asked the guys to also give us a winning margin and first scoring play. Argue the point or come back with your own in the comments, be really interested to find out how we all see games starting.

Last week: Geoff and The Crowd 4, Brett and Digger 3, Harry 2

Overall: Geoff and The Crowd 68, Digger 66, Brett and Harry 63

Geoff

Three matches left, and with Brett and Harry working on their new podcast about famous battles for wooden spoons, attentions rest squarely on Digger and The Crowd. The Crowd are your classic favourite pickers, but what if I have a stab for glory at backing one of the outsiders and allow Digger to sneak back in with a late rails run?

Those outsiders aren’t your classic hail Mary’s from left-field, either. Neither the Blues nor Crusaders are going well enough to be assured of victory. Neither the Brumbies nor the Chiefs are going badly enough to be assured of losing. In fact, they’re both going pretty damn well.

The Chiefs have already won in Christchurch this year. Guzzler is back and firing. Ethan Blackadder, the Crusader’s workhorse, is damaged. It feels like it’s time for Scott Barrett to step out from being ’third man’ to ‘main man’. If he doesn’t, the door is wide open for the Chiefs.

I’ll give the Crusaders the nod, but that’s only because they’ve got Will Jordan.

Crusaders by seven, with a Cody Taylor try to kick things off.

The Brumbies have the right game for the Blues. Play the percentages, make their tackles and scrap like hell at the breakdown. Finlay Christie can leave his armchair at home, he’ll be ferreting around for slow ball all night if the Brumbies get their way.

How many breakouts do the Blues need to score enough points to win? Three, perhaps? It’s doable, but only just.

Blues by ten, with Adrian Choat to score the first try.

Sure thing: Quinn Tupaea definitely won’t be rubbing Pablo Matera’s head for fun. Nobody is that foolish.

Digger

Friday promises to be a brutal affair, both of these sides like to have a go at each other. The Chiefs are certainly getting some of their known quantities back into the action and will take confidence from their last visit to the polo club, but the Crusaders’ home finals record is impressive for a reason and the Mo’unga factor has me leaning to the red and blacks.

Crusaders by 17, Will Jordan scores first with a try.

(Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)

In the second match, if we can reach the same heights as the same encounter from a few weeks back then we are in for a classic, both teams with plenty of confidence and an intriguing clash of styles.

The Brumbies can play the style to break the Blues out of their flow and drag them into the trenches, making life difficult, but it will take another huge defensive effort and I am not sure a side can replicate that sort of effort twice in a season.

Blues by 12, but with a Noah Lolesio penalty to start things.

Sure thing: The relative merits of a couple of 10s will be judged this weekend, personally the greatest shows will be up front, with a number having a great chance to make an impression at the right time of year.

Brett

Friday night’s game intrigues me for a number of reasons. There wouldn’t be a limit to the Chiefs’ confidence in going to Christchurch again, and they seem to be the team that fear going to that rickety old stadium made of scaffolding the most.

But the Crusaders in Christchurch are one thing, while the Crusaders in Christchurch in finals is quite another thing altogether. The Chiefs will feel like they’ve got the game, but the Crusaders have the knowledge and experience and will to find the extra point they’ll be focussed on finding. The Crusaders get up, not by many, but with the clear thought that the Chiefs are an absolute chance.

Crusanders by eight, with Sevu Reece to cross out wide first up.

Come Saturday night, why wouldn’t I pick the Brumbies?

No one gives them much chance, the Blues are on the roll of their franchise’s history, and the Aussie side are away from home, in a hostile environment where they’ve never won a final! Take all that away, and it’s easy.

In all seriousness, it is going to be fascinating contest. How quickly can the Blues play it vs how well can the Brumbies slow the game down to a tempo that best suits them? How well does Rob Valetini returning from injury cancel out Hoskins Sotutu or Akira Ioane? How effectively can the Brumbies bring on the grind and make it a set-piece battle vs how well can the Blues transition from a pretty decent set-piece themselves into the most lethal attack in the game?

And that’s before we start thinking about the weather, which is perhaps the greatest unknown.

I don’t think there’s much in it either way. But I’ve also got nothing to lose.

Brubmies by five, with the lineout drive to deliver the first points through Folau Fainga’a.

Sure thing: All four winning teams last week won with scores in the range of 35-39 points. Not sure the winning teams will need anything near that this weekend.

Folau Fainga’a of the Brumbies (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Harry

I’ve been drowning in Major League Rugby dramas, United Rugby Championship soap operas and Spanish eligibility telenovelas, along with the rigours of The Roar Rugby Podcast XV selection, so my tips are brief this week.

The Chiefs will knock off the Crusaders because the Saders are not themselves. They will make just enough errors to let the Hamiltonians in. And Bryn Gatland will be little man of the match.

Chiefs by two, but with a Richie Mo’unga penalty from 20 out first.

The Blues will scorch the Brumbies this time with the Ioane Brothers back. Too many weapons. Too much speed. Too much size.

Blues by 12, with a Stephen Perofeta penalty from 35.

Sure thing: An all-North Island final will be bitter and close.

Get your votes in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon.

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