We’re on the home stretch of the AFL season now: 14 games down, eight to go. We’ve got the bye rounds behind us, and we have just come off one of the biggest marquee rounds of football ever seen, that moved and shaped the eight in a significant way.
We’ve got a better handle on all teams since we last checked in a third of the way through the season, and now it’s time to assess the contenders again, along with a predicted finish.
Melbourne Demons
Round 14 was when all the contenders were going to flex their muscle against each other, and give us a read on what would unfold for the rest of the season.
It was fitting that Melbourne and Brisbane kicked off the round, and even more fitting still that the Demons played their most brutal and complete football of the season to wipe the Lions off the park.
There’s a reason the team that finishes on top of the ladder wins the premiership far less often than you’d think – Melbourne last year were the first team to do the double since Hawthorn in 2014. No side can be up all year, and a mid-season lull is absolutely required.
The Demons are in the unfamiliar position of being defending premiers. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The Dees lost three in a row before their bye, yes, but they were due to drop some games after having never really hit top gear all season despite winning. Steven May has missed a few games, Max Gawn will miss some too, and others have missed one here and there. It will freshen them up in the long run.
Melbourne’s defence will remain sound, but it’s their connection between midfield and forward-line that can sometimes show some faulty wiring.
If teams can force the Demon midfield to kick under pressure rather than be overpowered and overrun, then they can be exploited. Easier said than done. They’re still the team to beat.
Current wins: 11
Predicted wins: 16-17
Predicted ladder: 1st
Geelong Cats
Geelong have moved right up to second after five wins in a row. They also have the second best percentage in the comp, and a draw that can help them boost it in the run home.
It’s likely that percentage will determine home finals in that first week of September, and every point is worth mining.
We know what the Cats are by now. They win home and away games. They lose finals. Rinse and repeat.
Can this year be different?
We can talk about the forward duo of Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron. And boy, what a year the latter is having, by the way. The rise of Tyson Stengle has certainly given Geelong a different dimension in the forward half, as has the continued improvement of Brad Close.
The Cat midfield doesn’t have as much start power as it used to, but Patrick Dangerfield is due to resume after a lay-off, and Sam Menegola just has. Their experience is valuable, to add to Joel Selwood and Mitch Duncan, but it’s been shown that it can’t handle the younger heat in September.
Brandon Parfitt and Tom Atkins help, but they’re no Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca are they? And we saw how that played out on preliminary final weekend last year.
Geelong are always hard to score against, until that dam walls breaks eventually, deep in the season. Still, they’ll be there again. They always are.
Current wins: 10
Predicted wins: 16
Predicted ladder: 2nd
Brisbane Lions
We spoke about Melbourne’s demolition against Brisbane earlier, and it made for ugly viewing if you were on the Lions side of the fence.
Another big game, another big failure. This is a team that simply can not compete with the best. They are either not good enough or mentally fragile. Take your pick.
2019 – second on the ladder, out in straight sets with two Gabba losses.
2020 – second on the ladder, wiped off the park in a Gabba prelim.
2021 – fourth on the ladder, out in straight sets with another Gabba loss.
Brisbane score easily but don’t defend stoutly. The first is easy in home and away football. The second is necessary in finals. Even this year, they are again the best attacking team, but ranked ninth for defence.
Can you really trust Joe Daniher to deliver consistently at finals time? Eric Hipwood? Charlie Cameron? Cam Rayner? Would you bet your last dollar on Hugh McCluggage to nail that key goal? The answers are all no, for mine.
Current wins: 10
Predicted wins: 16
Predicted ladder: 3rd
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Fremantle Dockers
They’re a funny team, Fremantle. Hard to get a handle on.
They’ve beaten Geelong in Geelong and Melbourne at the MCG, along with claiming Brisbane as a scalp along the way.
But then they’ve been pathetic in losses to Gold Coast and Collingwood in willing conditions, and were humiliated against Carlton last Saturday.
They were out-toughed, out-hunted and out-played.
Who are the real Dockers this year? They’re still a team on the rise, learning how to play together after a raft of injuries and personnel changes in previous seasons, so we can forgive some inconsistent efforts. But inconsistent efforts aren’t going to put silverware on the table come September.
The fact is, Freo haven’t played finals since 2015, and no team is going all the way with that kind of history behind them. They still have enough chances to finish top four, but have straight sets exit written all over them. We’ll see how much they learn from it in 2023.
Current wins: 10
Predicted wins: 15-16
Predicted ladder: 4th
Carlton Blues
It’s easy to love what Carlton are producing under Michael Voss this season.
Their work around clearances could just about be the best we’ve ever seen. Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Matthew Kennedy, George Hewett, Adam Cerra – collectively, their core strength, ability to absorb or break through a tackle, fast clean hands, and working as a team until they get the release player, is really something to behold.
Up forward their chemistry is building, with Charlie Curnow back to his best and Harry McKay, a Coleman medallist mind you, playing second fiddle, along with just enough variety in their smalls and mediums to cause headaches to any backline.
The Blues own defence is becoming a problem due to injuries, but they are still standing up manfully. They have the same problem as Fremantle with no recent finals experience, so it’s hard to think they can go all the way this year, but they’ll give every team a fright on their day.
Current wins: 10
Predicted wins: 15-16
Predicted ladder: 5th
Sydney Swans
The Swans are a bit of everything these days. They can be tough, but also dazzle. They can score quickly, but defend grimly. They can control a game, but also put the foot down. Sometimes they are all of these things, and sometimes they are none.
Sydney’s worst habit is that they tend to go completely missing for a quarter or so. It’s happened in losses to Brisbane, Gold Coast, Carlton and Port in the last two months, and an avalanche of goals the other way has been the result.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
It’s costing them games, and it could cost them a finals spot if they’re not careful too.
Current wins: 9
Predicted wins: 14-15
Predicted ladder: 7th
Collingwood Magpies
Collingwood have been the surprise packet of the season, roaring into finals contention with five wins in a row, including taking down Melbourne, Carlton and Fremantle in Perth. They’ve gone from plucky upstart to holding a position in the eight. Can they stay there?
Craig McRae has done a phenomenal job really, given the Pies have a “bits and pieces” feel to them. The forward-line is unfashionable. The midfield consists of offcuts from other clubs, alongside a couple of evergreen veterans. The backline is their most settled area, and is doing enough.
Every game they win under McRae casts a further shadow over Nathan Buckley’s credentials as a coach.
The Pies might make it. They might not. But they’re turning heads either way.
Current wins: 9
Predicted wins: 14
Predicted ladder: 8th
Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs continue on their erratic ways under Luke Beveridge. Capable of winning the flag or missing finals, they are currently in the eight for only the second time this year.
They have a unique one-two punch up forward with Aaron Naughton and Cody Weightman, and we know they are always capable of winning plenty of ball around the midfield. The handbrake has been off since their bye, kicking 125 points and winning shoot-outs in both games. Kill or be killed?
The biggest problem for the Dogs is that they might have left their run too late – they have the toughest draw of any team on the road to September, with not a single gimme among them.
Current wins: 8
Predicted wins: 13
Predicted ladder: 9th
Richmond Tigers
Richmond are 6-2 from their last eight games, with both losses by a goal, to Sydney and Geelong. No-one watching the Tigers and Cats in the Saturday twilight on the weekend was under any illusion – these are two teams capable of contending for the flag.
It was the only top eight clash on the weekend where both teams brought their best, and it was awesome to behold.
Damian Hardwick has their chaos game in fine fettle, which is a by-product of a defensive set-up looking as resilient as in the premiership years. Richmond’s best is still as good as it was back then, but they are having trouble sustaining it for long enough – they have lost four games this year when between 3-6 goals up after half-time.
The Tigers are sitting ninth but have West Coast, Gold Coast and North Melbourne in their next three, which could have them knocking on the door of where they want to be if they can knock them all off.
Current wins: 8
Predicted wins: 14-15
Predicted ladder: 6th
St Kilda Saints
The scenes are ugly at St Kilda, with three losses in a row since their bye, each one worse than the last.
The Saints were plucky against Brisbane upon resumption, where the spirit was willing but the flesh was week. They were apathetic against Essendon, in an atrociously bruise-free performance. The bad old days of Alan Richardson were back against Sydney, with horrid ball use.
Their season is almost over, and what does it say that 34-year-old Paddy Ryder, who can barely play two out of every three games, still seems to be their most important player?
St Kilda will be sitting on that one lonely flag for a long time yet.
Current wins: 8
Predicted wins: 12
Predicted ladder: 10th
Gold Coast Suns
There has been a bit of talk about Gold Coast playing finals this year, which inexplicably seems to be gathering momentum among some media types. It’s not going to happen.
The Suns are in a good place right now though, playing with substance and heart, and showing how well drilled they are.
For the first time in a long time, they are still competing as we enter the final third of the season, and that is with some significant injury troubles too.
2023 might be their year to play finals for the first time, but it still won’t come easy.
Current wins: 7
Predicted wins: 10-11
Predicted ladder: 12th
Port Adelaide Power
There’s often a predicted finals team that stumbles out of the gates before picking up and charging home. They’re fun to watch, and an entertaining story, but they hardly ever make it to September.
That’s Port this year, and they might have fired their last shots with this group too.
Travis Boak can’t keep going forever, Robbie Gray is almost done, Charlie Dixon is more bark than bite. And when Jeremy Finlayson is the answer, the question must be an ugly one.
Current wins: 7
Predicted wins: 11
Predicted ladder: 11th
O M
Roar Rookie
Better get yourself a Spiritual Advisor!
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
My tip for the last four standing are Melbourne Geelong Richmond and Brisbane with the GF either Demons and Pussys or Dees and Tiges. They are the best three when playing at their best baring injuries/outs. Dont think Lions can do it in Melbourne. Richmond and Melbourne get the advantage at the end of the season.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Lol, yep both the pies and Richmond, I can deal with one given Geelong is already in there, all three would be harmful to my soul
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
It's close, we have to beat Freo and the cats, then everyone else, Geelong at home is winnable. Could be any of 5 teams at the moment
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
Do you mean both Pies and Tigers? If the Dogs,Saints and Swans all miss- one predictor I've done showed that , then C'wood and R'mond squeak in
1dawg
Roar Rookie
$1 million for the next 5 years. Who Knows- Collingwood accountants.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Brissie may just be in a mid season lull yet, their forward line will get better every game from here. Still a major player
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
West coast, port and Gold coast will take a few scalps before the end of the year, reckon 13 will do it
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
I'd say they'd been effectively ineffective
Macca
Roar Rookie
“the first time our teams played this year” Everyone had Walsh best on the weekend Don, just like everyone had TDK beating Darcy, but everyone had Cripps BOG “the first time our team played this year” which is why he got 10 coaches votes.
ScottD
Roar Guru
It's hard to argue against 10 of 14 being reasonably consistent. However the statement that Dockers form is hard to read is accurate I think. I think they have to win 4 of their last 8 to make finals which on statistics this year should be fine. However I think they could win anything from 8 from 8 to 3 from 8. Their failure against Carlton was completely unexpected for me last week and I just wonder if there is a lack of maturity in what is a very inexperienced side and whether that will count against them in the end? Hard to know.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
You had Cripps? I had 9 Brownlow votes for Walsh. Everyone had Walsh best. Cripps? Oh dear.
Macca
Roar Rookie
OK Don whatever you say – the AFL coaches got it wrong, the bloke who only see Purple is the real expert. This discussion reminds me of the one we had the first time our teams played this year, I had Cripps BOG you had Brayshaw. Cripps got 10 votes from the coaches (no doubt again from parochial misjudgement) and Brayshaw got 8. I suppose that’s the thing with having no credibility – you don’t have to worry about losing it.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
It's standard fare for Darcy to win his position. TDK got rewarded, a little like the struggling kid in U13s who gets 5minutes game time but gets consoled with the Most Improved trophy.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
O e coach...parochial misjudgement. Trying to mitigate a young bloke's humiliation be a seasoned young bloke.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
The 2012 season is the only time in history (since 18 teams in the comp) that 14 wins was required. Every other year, 12 or 13 wins (with superior percentage) was enough. I think this year it will be 13 plus best percentage to qualify.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
I think a team with 13 wins and superior percentage has regularly qualified for finals in 8th spot.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Very fair, good summary Cam. I think there is daylight between Melbourne's best and everyone else, so clearly they are hot favourites. They manner in which they dispensed with Brisbane last week brought back horror memories of the last year's GF 3rd quarter, 10 minute patch. They are awesome. Carlton lost to Richmond narrowly in the wet, which thwarted their main weapons, Curnow and McKay. Their midfield can go with Melbourne, apart from a major weakness in the Ruck. Their backline will look much better once Weitering return. I think they are likely to make a PF. Richmond have looked great recently and have an easy run home, so should finish top 6, possibly higher, and will scare teams, but I don't think they have the consistency and hunger any more to win the flag or to win a minimum of three finals, and like other teams are a long way behind Melbourne. Brisbane are shot. They don't have enough speed and counter-attack from their backline against the top teams, although maybe that will look better with Zorko back this week. Freo seem too inexperienced across the whole team to threaten seriously in finals and especially playing in Melbourne. I think the Dogs will fall into the 8 (losing to Lions, Melbourne and Geelong, but winning the rest) and will be a frightening matchup in finals because of Bevo's history of getting them to fire at the business end of the season, but I think we just haven't been good enough this year (mainly due to too many games missed by our spine, English, Keath, Bruce, and the absence of star Bailey Smith). I can't see the Pies making finals and Port and Saints have left it too late to qualify, with inferior percentage.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Strange the coaches didn't reward such a strong game from Darcy - TDK got 4 votes though.
Macca
Roar Rookie
“We all saw 3 Darcy hitouts for every 2 your boy got (35 is only 1.5 times 22 but we will move on)” And yet the Blues won the clearances by 44 to 30 and centre clearance 14-5 – quality not quantity Don. “If you dared to watch the game again, you’d realise Carlton’s clearance advantage had nothing to do with the rucks. ” I have watched it twice I loved the performance so much – numerous decisive taps from TDK which caused quality clearances by the Blues. Are you sure you watched last weeks game not round 5? “You lost the ruck…comprehensively” You say that, I see it the exact opposite – if only there were some way of kowing how the coaches saw it – hmmm I know lets go to the coaches votes – 10 – S Walsh 5 – Z Fisher 4 T De Koning 4 S Docherty 3 G Hewett 2 M Kennedy 2 A Saad So no sign of Darcy but either 1 of the coaches had De Koning second best on Ground or both coaches thought he was in the top 5.