Talking about tactics in Origin, as I have written on many occasions before, is a little bit of a waste of time.
Not because there aren’t any, but because the sample size is permanently too small to try and discern what coaches are doing in the long run. There is no long run.
Instead, we see a few general ploys – and I guess ploys are a type of tactic after all – that provide an insight into what the coaches think their relative strengths and weaknesses are, and what they think can give them a 1% advantage.
In Game 1, we saw the Penrith Blues take on the Queenslander Spirits, at least if you listen to the coaches.
Brad Fittler thought that the Panthers were great (they are) and most of his team were from there (they are) and thus they just had to turn up and play like Penrith to win (they didn’t). Oh dear.
Billy Slater, however, steadfastly refused to talk about anything as germane as tactics and said things about what it meant to be a Queenslander, which I found strange, because Origin would be quite boring if simply being from one of the participating states qualified you to win.
Then in Game 2, the Penrith Blues did alright, because they executed better, got a bit of early wind go their way, and their opponents learned that you do need some semblance of a plan, especially when things don’t go your way.
It’s funny, really: NSW did talk about tactics in Game 1, but the most effective tactic was Queensland’s umbrella defence, which they wouldn’t talk about.
Then in Game 2, NSW busted that with the simplest of kicks in behind for their opening try and thereafter, QLD never tried it again, allowing the Blues to play exactly as they wanted.
Jarome Luai at Optus Stadium. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Instead, they reverted to a crude delaying tactic in the rucks that annoyed the referee sufficiently for him to send someone off, with the resultant fatigue a major factor in a heavy defeat. This, combined with a slightly rattled team selection, does make picking Game 3 a little more difficult.
NSW are without Payne Haas and have seen his replacement, Jordan McClean, also drop out. Now, it looks like they’ll need to get bulk minutes out of Junior Paulo and Jacob Saifiti. That’s a problem.
The Maroons have gone for Limmy’s ‘don’t back doon, double doon’ approach to bad decisions by elevating Jeremiah Nanai to start in place of Felise Kaufusi, with Tom Gilbert coming onto the bench.
Nanai is totally different to Kaufusi, both in terms of tactics and personality. The purpose of Kaufusi is to be an ultra-reliable, aggressive, 80-minute player, a set-and-forget for the coach.
Nanai is flashy, raw, potentially great but currently highly unreliable, especially defensively. They have to hide him or hope that he stops missing tackles at the current rate that he is, which is about one every ten minutes in Origin.
The outside backs also present a major departure for NSW. They have three centres now, with Matt Burton undroppable after just one game, Jack Wighton back available (and should be undroppable after his first game) plus Stephen Crichton, the theoretical incumbent.
As it stands, Wighton is named at 18th man and Crichton to start, but if that doesn’t switch before kick off, then Fittler has made a big mistake.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
While it is a cliché that Origin is won in the forwards, the loss of Haas means that both are pretty equal: it’s in the outside backs and halves that the Blues can make the most of their advantage.
If this sounds familiar, it’s because it was exactly how Women’s Origin played out: both sides were equally matched through the middle but the better strike out wide carried the day for NSW.
The edge defence for the Maroons is a big issue that lines up directly against that potential Blues strength.
They thought their way out of it in Game 1 with excellent counter-pressing, but when that was overcome in Game 2, the likes of Dane Gagai, Nanai and Daly Cherry-Evans were ruthlessly exposed. Either they go back to Plan A – and watch for an early kick in behind – or they’ll have some serious tackling to do to stop the Blues out wide.
In this, Tom Dearden, deputising for the Covid casualty Cameron Munster, will be judged as much on how well he defends as anything else.
While he’s not a terrible tackler, he doesn’t yet have the huge attacking upside that keeps the likes of Cherry-Evans in the team when the defending falters.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Were it me doing the picking, I would have put Ben Hunt in for 80 minutes and found another hooker – Reed Mahoney, probably – to do the bench 14 role, but Dearden will play at least in some capacity.
If the Blues do go for a Burton-Wighton centre pairing, then their ability to run, kick and find a pass will be very, very hard for Billy Slater to combat. He must be hoping that Crichton gets a run.
On the other side of the ball, Queensland can halt the Blues through their transition and forward play. Corey Oates, in on the wing after Covid denied Murray Taulagi a second run, will be key to this.
He’s been the best for the Broncos this year at starting sets and, in concert with teammate Selwyn Cobbo on the other wing, can made inroads that allow the Maroons to roll forward.
If the ruck can generate momentum, then everything will flow from there, especially in how they get Kalyn Ponga involved.
It remains to be seen the order in which Hunt and Dearden play – and where and when Harry Grant comes in – but if Queensland opt to use Hunt in the halves with DCE, then they have two maestros out there, with excellent boots and passing skills, and will empower the fullback to play a purely strike role.
For that ruck to be won, Slater has to get his interchanges right like he did in Game 1, maximising returns from Pat Carrigan and improving his use of Nanai and Jai Arrow, while finding a place for Gilbert to be impactful.
As mentioned, my fear for Queensland is that Nanai can’t play 80 minutes in Origin without being a defensive issue, and there’s not enough rotation in there for the rest of them, especially if – as he has in recent weeks – Josh Papalii can’t play longer minutes.
Like I said above, it’s a cliché that the forwards will win this one. With both sides lacking that department through Covid, injuries and somewhat confusing selections *coughs* RCG *coughs*, that might not be as true as it has been in the past.
If it becomes about who scores more points…then we might see NSW’s backs break it open again. But then: only one team has Queenslanders, right?
The Barry
Roar Guru
Crichton hasnt been great so far but is a better option than Wighton at right centre for mine. Wighton was good in game 1 but you need a crowbar to get the ball away from him. He’s also a left sided player. Right is a much more specialised position If they run out 1-17, I think Queensland has too many defensive hot spots across the park. I can’t see Nanai starting To win, I think Queensland have to go super hard hard at NSW. Guys like Tino, Papali’i, Carrigan, Collins need to serve it up so Queensland are playing on the front foot. If NSW win or maybe even maintain parity in the middle, then I think NSW win well I’d play Grant at 9, Hunt at 6. Without Munster, Ponga is key for Queensland tonight in attack and I think Grant and Hunt free him up a bit more Logically, I think NSW win this well… problem is Queensland - particularly at Lang Park, don’t really respect logic. But I think it takes one of those famous Queensland efforts for them to win
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Wasn't the series on the line, last time they played at Suncorp, game 2 last year ?
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Maybe . Nanai is just so young though. I mean when you think about it it's actually a really dangerous tactic . You can leave some big holes in the line if the ' shooter' gets it wrong. In game one Val was superb at it. He got them all right and nailed most tackles first time. Gags missed a few but never let his man get to the outside and we closed them all down. It was a brilliant plan. I think Val, and Gags will still be the main men. DCE does it sometimes and Tommy can do it as well but it's an art. You can look pretty stupid if you get it wrong. I just think we need all those guys on the inside from marker through to the third defender to cover the space. Without a sin bin and with a dry track we should be able to do it. Doing it for 80 though is tough. The kick through still worries me but there is no perfect defensive system so the FB and winger just have to keep it in mind. This is a tough game to win and we go in with the lesser kicking game but effort covers a lot of deficiencies.
Dean
Roar Rookie
It sounds rough when said that way Albo but is it possible there's another side to that story? Perhaps he was responding?
Dean
Roar Rookie
It's a fair point Souvalis but how many of those above him are in contention for NSW? It's a genuine question but would Haas, Fisher-Harris and Tapine be in the 6 above him?
Sideline Commentator
Roar Guru
That's good analysis jimmmy. With Nanai (theoretically) replacing Kaufusi do you think they might change the shooter on that side to have a more solid defender chasing on the inside? Maybe have Nanai as the shooter.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Game 1 ‘Parra best’ made a bog average 106 meters. His average meters in the NRL this season has him at 21st, ranked 7 th among middles.
Albo
Roar Rookie
He told his Panther team mates that he wasn't trying when he was playing with them ? Can't think why they wouldn't want to play Origin with him ? :shocked:
Sideline Commentator
Roar Guru
Rubbish, a decider at Lang Park should never be such long odds. Qld are still a very good team and know exactly how to win this type of game. I think 3.25 is laughable as it is, it should be much closer.
Sideline Commentator
Roar Guru
I think I'd prefer Carrigan, he worries me almost as much and doesn't have the prestige of Munster. With Munster out I think we have the worst of both worlds: if we win, it's just because they didn't have their best player; if we lose it's another famous Qld victory against all the odds, despite him being just one player. I'd prefer him be there.
PB Meister
Roar Rookie
The moustache is worth 6 points on it’s own!
Dean
Roar Rookie
Nice scene setter for tonight Mike. Re the selection of Nanai, there was a little comment made by Slater immediately after SOO2, I think it was in the entrance to the tunnel. Slater was asked about changes to the team and said words to the effect of 'we have our team'. What he is doing by picking Nanai is the foundational pick-n-stick which is the DNA of QLD in SOO. Looking from the perspective of the players, it must instil confidence knowing the coach backs them to be good enough even if the last outing was poor. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the team that hits the park is as per named. Despite the above, I agree with the sentiment to start Hunt at 6. I'm one of the Dragons supporters who think Hunt is a great player and he is now becoming the heart and soul of the dragons, sort of picking up from McInnes a couple seasons back. If I had a criticism of Hunt, as the sole effective general at the Dragons it can be challenging for him to both employ his running game threat while also running the tactical game. In this area, a Hunt & DCE combination looks to lots of potential, with DCE running game management, Hunt employ his run and pass and with a kick option on both sides of the ruck. Lucky for NSW... As for the RCG comment - hard to see the logic of picking Newcastle's third best prop over the Eels best meter eater. Looks like RCG is the new Klemmer: Alexander's guidance to Fittler must have been "his performance justifies selection but we don't like him"
Ja ja klazo
Guest
Spot on. RCG gets the media excited because he's big and has a moustache. Saifiti doesn't have to play big minutes, not in a team that contains Jurbo, Yeo, Murray and A Crichton. He just needs to get in and run straight for 30 minutes while Paulo has a breather.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
RCG is no big loss. Gets hit hard and puts the handbrake on. Press raved about him after the Tigers game but both benchies ( Kaufusi and Maratoka’s )stats were on par with his. At least you know JSaf will play around 30 mins of tough, trusted, straight, middle.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Well Mike this is strange , we finally agree. I would have picked Mahoney to start and played Hunt and DCE in the halves. But we go with what we have. So Gilbert starts imo. He can play long minutes. He plays middle or edge. He is Ruben Cotter but not quite as good. Nanai is just not physically there yet. Gilbert to start. Papa to follow Junior , take him out of the game ( legally). Play every minute Junior does. Our inside defenders need to chase , chase chase. We were very sloppy ( from fatigue ) in game 2, we can’t repeat that. Lastly , Hunt needs to kick . Tommy is a great kid but his long kicking is poor. NSW have a big advantage here. We can’t match them but we Need to be close.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
QLD didn't really play an umbrella D , more using a shooter like Holmes or Gaiagai to run out of the line to cut things off. If you use a shooter the main things are you can't get beaten on the outside ( that's a disaster) and the inside defenders have to work really hard because the play almost always comes back inside. In game one it worked perfectly but in game two NSW used the early kick ( which is a great counter to a shooter) but more importantly we didn't chase nearly hard enough from the inside. The loss of Cotter , the sin bin and the sticky ground meant we couldn't cover the inside . Longer the game went on the sloppier we got. It's the right tactic and we will use it again. We will execute it better and as long as the winger and Ponga are aware that the kick needs to be covered we will be OK.
Redcap
Roar Guru
Yes, I'd be very surprised (and pleased) if Nanai started, and how they use Dearden will be interesting. I think he'll start and they'll try to use Grant as a weapon again. NSW should win this but who knows. Origin obeys no laws other than its own.
kk
Roar Pro
Agreed Tony. DCE may also be near the end of his Origin career. Without Kaufusi and Munster, Q. should be at least $4.50 and if Wighton starts $5.50. Will be cheering for Q. Open to surprises.
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
My thoughts are, game 2 if the ball bounces a bit different and Jake can't hang onto Pongas boot. Then we are definantley on the back foot. Val doesn't get penalised and Kafusi doesn't get binned, I know it's a hypothetical but origin is decided by tiny little moments. If Yeo can stay on for the 80 we will be very direct and if its even at half time I think we will run away towards the back end. I have a feeling that Hunt may have the game of his career :thumbup: Good luck
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Usually really impressed by your analysis Mike. Not so convinced this time though. You say QLD abandoned their up-and-in umbrella defence after the little kick in behind for Burton's try - but they kept it up and were exposed on the inside several more times - by Cleary looking out and stepping inside to score himself. Maroons now have to worry about the attack out wide AND the attack turning back under through the middle. Meanwhile the Blues have to worry about.... maestros Hunt and DCE...? Hmmmmm.....