As the old saying goes, rugby league premierships are won on defence so the team that’s best at the tackling part of the game will lift the trophy.
I am not sure that is necessarily the case these days in the six-again era.
Don’t get me wrong, defence will be very important and it’s no coincidence that the two best teams as far as points conceded this year were the first through to the Preliminary Finals – Penrith and North Queensland.
But now that we’re coming to the end of the third season of the six-again era, it’s clear that perfecting your attack in the key moments of matches, has never been more crucial.
We’ve seen higher than usual scores in the finals so far – the lowest winning total out of the eight matches has been 27 by Penrith in the playoff opener against Parramatta.
(Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
The teams that have won have seized the opportunities when they have presented themselves.
Canberra are a good example of a team that got that wrong last weekend from the outset and the Eels ended up having a field day.
They could have scored a try early but Jordan Rapana dropped the ball over the line and then they had another one go begging when Jack Wighton was a step offside for an attacking kick.
Cronulla were unable to nail their execution in good-ball sets early in their semi against Souths and they paid the price when their opponents managed to get back down the other end of the field and take the chances.
From the four teams who will take the field this weekend trying to get into the Grand Final they all have outstanding attacking arsenals.
They all prefer going right to left. It’s a trend in footy that’s always been the case because most players are right handed and prefer to pass to the left with their dominant hand spiralling the ball to their teammates out wide.
On Friday night in Townsville, the home side will look to Val Holmes, Murray Taulagi, Scott Drinkwater and Tom Dearden to spark their attack down the left edge while the Eels have Dylan Brown feeding big Shaun Lane with Tom Opacic,if he gets over his hammy, Clint Gutherson in support and Maika Sivo ready to pounce.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Then on Saturday, Penrith will have Jarome Luai, Stephen Crichton, Viliame Kikau and Brian To’o, or maybe Charlie Staines if they switch them around, while it’s no secret Souths will lean heavily on Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker combining down their left with Cameron Murray and Alex Johnston.
The fact that Johnston has 30 tries for the second year in a row shows Souths are extremely potent when they head that way. It’s not just their execution but also their variation they put into their attack down the left.
Defensively as a head coach, you can do your homework around line speed and getting your spacing right and do a whole range of things, but it’s South Sydney’s subtlety that Walker, Murray and Mitchell play with that makes them so dangerous.
It’s one thing knowing it’s coming but another thing knowing how to stop it.
They can pick apart a right-edge defence with the shapes they run.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Mitchell is like the other three fullbacks still in action – Dylan Edwards at Penrith, Drinkwater and Eels skipper Clint Gutherson. They can swing their team’s attack down either edge of the field if they count numbers correctly and identify any weaknesses in the defence.
They’re the major indicator to a defensive line on which way they’ll go. If you give any of these four teams multiple attacking sets on your line, they will carve you up.
They’ve also got some very capable dummy-half operators around the posts in Api Koroisau, Reece Robson, Damien Cook and Reed Mahoney. It’s an even contest across the four teams but when you factor in who wins the battle for field position, that’s when the hookers come into their own.
Mahoney has improved a lot with his recognition of offloads and finds a pass to the right person – he’s quite a smart hooker in that regard.
When it comes to who’s going to be facing who in the GF, I think we’re going to see a Penrith vs North Queensland decider.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
If the Cowboys were playing Parramatta at CommBank Stadium, I’d be tipping the Eels but I can only see the fact that the game’s on in Townsville as a massive advantage and it will probably be the difference in the end.
Parra look like they’re doing a fly in, fly out mission and that may turn out for the best but it’s a different environment playing up there at the QCB Stadium.
The humidity can be a big factor with handling and the Cowboys live and train in those conditions which are not easy to negotiate without a lot of preparation.
I think North Queensland have got a little bit more improvement left in them and they’ve got a healthy squad which has the benefit of putting the feet up last weekend.
That kind of rest at this time of year is invaluable – it’s not better to keep playing each week of the finals even if people try to tell you otherwise.
And the Panthers with the big game experience, an exceptional general in Nathan Cleary and a week off might have enough energy to sneak past the Rabbitohs.
Cleary’s outstanding kicking game and their relentless defensive approach might be enough to limit the Rabbitohs number of attacking chances.
Should be two cracking games and all four teams are worthy of a place in the GF
Rob
Guest
He got dragged against the Tigers. His errors that night just kept inviting the Tigers in. You might see Drinkwater on a highlight reel for the Cowboys but you would be hard pressed seeing him in the picture when the opposing team is going over too often IMO. Anyway Todd has got to stick with the formula now. If I was Todd I would have got Hammer back into the 1 a soon as he was fit. If Drinkwater makes an early error I’d be making an early change.
matth
Roar Guru
Like many neutrals I’d love to see the premier come from the Cowboys v Eels match, but also like many I suspect the premier is playing in the other game
matth
Roar Guru
The flaw with the author’s theory is that the finals appear to be played by different rules. No team got more than two six agains last week
matth
Roar Guru
Isn’t that the Drinkwater of past seasons though? He’s seems much more settled and insistent now
matth
Roar Guru
Losing Opacic might just be the thing that tips this. The Eels left still has all their weapons but might not be as slick in getting to them
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
I do agree. I was disappointed in 05 for sure but it didnt seem so bad losing to that Tigers team. As for this year I bought grand final tickets as soon as the Storm and Roosters went out so I am going whatever happens. We can be there.
R N
Roar Rookie
:laughing: As losses go Jimmmy that was almost tolerable... that Tigs team was pretty good to watch! ... I am actually pretty confident this weekend. I reckon we have them! If Parra do win though I think I will get on board the Eels band wagon! Would rather them than the other two!
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
I like your dreams better than mine RN . All I get is a Pat Richards fend to the face on repeat.
R N
Roar Rookie
Parra will be 10 up with 20 to go and choke. A Gutho error will lead to rousing Cows comeback and they will win by >10! Biff Tannen told me this last night in a dream... he had the sports almanac so it must be true!
Griffo 09
Roar Rookie
True, and I guess last game suggests for the Sharks it wasn't an anomaly; although, I didn't expect them to concede that many points again. What I am thinking (perhaps it's hoping) is what happened to the Sharks was unlikely; so therefore, unlikely to happen to the Cowboys. We'll see.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Sharks were a nose away 3rd.
Griffo 09
Roar Rookie
I think Drinkwater will get a lot of confidence from his performance under the high ball at a blustery Shark Park. In terms of the back three. They just need to look at the way they finished off the last game and start that way this week.
Griffo 09
Roar Rookie
I think that was an anomaly. Cowboys defensive record is 2nd in the comp.
Landz84
Roar Rookie
I agree mate...Its that Nanai/Chad edge that seems to be shaky at the moment. Nanai tends to come up and in very quickly, leaving chad to make a one on one with a big second rower coming at him. Got found out a few times recently, and sometimes nanai came up so fast that Chad didnt even have time to react and the opposite back rower has gone over untouched :S concern! But I'm hopeful we've corrected those deficiencies. Tickets are bought and I'm pumped for Friday night
Rob
Guest
I’m confident the Cowboys can finish stronger but I’m extremely nervous that the Cowboys start slowly. If the the Eels get off to a fast start they might put a few on the board. My biggest concern is Drinkwater being hot or cold. When things get uncomfortable or he makes an error they effectively play a man down IMO.
Dusty10
Roar Rookie
Eeewww, smoked eel. You can have that.
Rob
Guest
Attack is certainly the key in today’s game. In saying that it all about ball movement, field position and execution. Pretty simple but the team that gets it right will be the ones winning. For me the most effective team at playing field position is the Panthers. Edwards is safe and positionally smart. They don’t give their opponents many opportunities coming out of their end and Clearly puts a lot of pressure on the opposition back 3 especially with the Panthers kick chase and line speed stopping any thought of ball movement. South should be looking to target the Panthers wingers with contested balls as much as possible IMO. That’s an area of weakness and keeps Edwards influence to a minimum. In the Eels v Cowboys game I feel ball movement and execution will be the key to winning. If the Cowboys can contain the Eels ball movement they should win as the bigger Eels team won’t enjoy the conditions especially the further the game goes. Fatigue will be a major factor and error’s will have a significant effect on who advances. My worry as a Cowboys supporter is that the Eels get a quick easy lead. Drinkwater needs to be safe and the back 3 need to be very careful not to give Eels too much early possession to stop this happening also. The Eels will be wanting a repeat of the mistakes the Raiders made coming out of their end early in the match. If that happens they’ll do the same thing. The quality of play from the back 3 and especially the fullbacks will play a big part in who is playing next weekend IMO.
Albo
Roar Rookie
You can never say never, and either team winning each of these matches will not surprise me. But assuming the luck runs evenly and performances are all up to scratch, I am tipping the Cows & Panthers to meet in the GF.
Andrew01
Roar Rookie
As the old saying goes, rugby league premierships are won on defence so the team that’s best at the tackling part of the game will lift the trophy. I am not sure that is necessarily the case these days in the six-again era. I guess the counter to that would be looking at last years winners (the Panthers) and their Finals run (also the six again era) Wk 1 of Finals v Souths 10-16 Wk 2 of FInals v Eels 8-6 Wk 3 of Finals v Storm 10-6 Grand FInal v Souths 14-12
Johnny
Roar Rookie
Cowboys should win comfortably on Friday at home. The Eels are 2 from the past 14 in Townsville & it will be 26 degrees and 85% humidity when they play. The Eels Cowboys game in round 8 was a preview. I think it will be close for 60 minutes or so then the cowboys defense and fitness will win out later in the game. That said, I've been wrong in the past :happy: