Warren Buffet is said to have had fun expanding a business euphemism to read ‘A rising tide floats all boats….. and only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked’.
Australian racing and in particular the assessment of the class of the Australian (or nationalised) racehorses competing in the 2022 Cox Plate provide a case in point.
All Australian (or nationalised) horses in the race received rating boosts of between 2 and 10 rating points for their last start performance…..seemingly irrespective of their performance.
That is the very definition of a rising tide!
This has seen 8 of 12 competitors judged by Australia’s International Handicapper as class-worthy of a start in the Arc De Triomophe or the Champion stakes in the UK. I can hear the overseas laughter from here.
For context, Verry Elleegant (a winner of 8 Australian Group 1s) was given a lower rating for winning a Group 1 in 2021 than the current rating of 8 Cox Plate runners….most of which have never won an open age Group 1!
So how has this come about? Has there been a miraculous injection of class in the 4 months VE has been on the international catwalk? No.
Have all these horses climbed Mt Everest or jumped out of the ground to set new benchmarks of performance? No. Have they been clocking up Group 1 win after Group 1 win? No. Are they all young untested horses on an upward spiral? Far from it.
Is it a mirage – absolutely. How else do you explain this ‘rising tide’ rating phenomenon?
A deeper dive into these ratings reveals just how nakedly distorted these assessments are.
Take Profondo for example. It ran a well beaten 9th last start in the Set Weights and Penalties Turnbull stakes carrying 2.5kgs less than WFA, yet it’s rating jumped from 106 to 116 (it’s highest ever rating). In the same race Maximal Young Werther and Luncies competed.
Carrying the same weight as Maximal and Young Werther, Luncies was beaten home by less than one length. It’s performance received a rating of 97. (Remember, it’s not a Cox plate starter). On the other hand, Cox Plate starters Maximal, Young Werther and Profondo (which finished behind Luncies) were given ratings of 112,112 & 116.
Is this not Alice in Wonderland stuff?
This rating differential is like saying that all 3 could give Luncies a 50 metre head start or carry 10kgs more and still beat Luncies over 2000m…..which they clearly couldn’t!
Amongst the many other examples – let’s look at another form line where Tuvalu won the Group 1 Toorak Handicap. It was awarded a rating of 108 for that effort. Laws of Indices which runs in the Cox Plate ran 2nd to Tuvalu. His performance was rewarded with a lift from 106 to 114 (6 more than the winner Tuvalu).
You can’t make this stuff up.
Then there is the Verry Elleegant benchmark. When it won the 2020 Caulfield Cup up against a strong field, (that included an Epsom Derby winner) her performance was rated at 116.
Fast forward to 2022 Caulfield Cup, an edition that 99.9% of the population agreed was the poorest edition they could remember. Even the handicapper admitted as much when declaring weights for each runner. A top weight of 56.5kgs tells all.
Despite this, Gold Trip was awarded a rating of 119 for running second! Times suggest Verry Elleegant would have beaten Gold Trip by 10 lengths (and yes track ratings were the same).
Is it any wonder overseas jurisdictions have a great belly laugh when they look at our WFA ranks? Is it any wonder the French were so quick to adjust International ratings as soon as they got a chance?
So why are these ratings so inflated for Cox Plate entrants? Well…it’s not the horses that have any trouble swimming naked, just those who crave international prestige.
sheek
Roar Guru
Tomothy, Of course another problem in Oz, too many G1s, too many Gs, too many meaningless races Maybe it IS only about the wagering!
Omnitrader
Roar Rookie
Look at the big carnivals overseas, they don’t have 10 race cards, maybe 6 or 7 high quality races, if you think your horse is good enough have a crack. Elite racing elite produces elite, not picking and choosing where to go just for some black type.
peeeko
Roar Guru
agree, it doesnt make much sense. would be good if racing victoria explained. i will definitely see what ratings those horses that finished 8-12 have at their next start
sheek
Roar Guru
Tomothy, The powers that be may disagree with me, arguing wagering is king & punters will bet on anything, including a whole program of 1000-1400m races. But punters also have many choices & maybe the diehards won't care, but for Racing to be at its best, to appeal at every level, not just wagering, it needs the variety of distances. Perhaps I'm wrong...
Omnitrader
Roar Rookie
I’m hoping that with the emergence of Pierro, Sebring, so you think, tarzino, shocking, puissance de lune etc, as sires we will see our stayers start to get back on track.
Ross Wright
Roar Rookie
Peeko, I’m no ratings expert but if anything, I would have thought ratings would go down (not up) if converted to ‘international’ benchmarks. It doesn’t, in my mind explain the leap that some horses experienced. It also doesn’t seem reflected in Gold Trip’s rating which was 115 going into Caulfield Cup and 119 coming out of it. If there was any ‘adjustment’ it was relatively minor in the scheme of things (and still doesn’t make sense relative to VE’s rating coming out of the 2020 CC). Perhaps the most interesting post script (wet track aside) is those receiving the most ‘perplexing’ rises finished 8th to 12th.
peeeko
Roar Guru
i asked a few questions on twitter from ratings experts about this irregularity. it seems that for major races like Cox plate and caulfoeld cup that the ratings change over to international ratings. at the horses next starts they change the rating back to the australian benchmark. even though similar, the ratings calculations are slightly different. i really thought you may have uncovered something sinister here but it just seems they dont explain things on the racing websites where the ratings are published
sheek
Roar Guru
Amanforallseasons, Thoughtful article which highlights the serious fault lines in Australian racing. There are people making tons of money from horses, breeders, high-end, high-publicity owners & such, but the industry as a whole is bleeding to dry, eventually leaving a carcass of severe discontent.
sheek
Roar Guru
Timothy, And yet going back more than 40 years, we valued our stayers. I guess eventually the Melbourne Cup will be reduced to 2000m & the Caulfield Cup to 1600m. The Derbies will all be reduced to 1600m as well. Sprints will be like dog races, all around the same mark. This will have happen because we simply won't have the horses anymore that can run past 2000m. Durability will have been bred out of them.
Richie
Roar Rookie
It’s not easy exposing embarrassing stuff about a sport you love, well done Aman. :thumbup:
Davico
Roar Pro
Great article
Ross Wright
Roar Rookie
Tomothy, Not that I am one for tips….but you posed the question. From what I can tell, El Bodegon is currently assessed (on European ratings) to be a slightly better horse than what State of Rest was shortly before it won the Cox plate carrying 56kgs and Anamoe 49.5kgs. This year Anamoe rises 7.5kg and has to give El Bodegon 1kg. So if Anamoe is the hardest to beat – then Anamoe would have had to have improved by 8.5kgs (or 4 lengths using a rule of thumb) going from 3-4yo for it to beat The Bod home (if both turn up and perform to their rating – which is no guarantee). Interestingly, Australia’s handicapper indicates that Anamoe has improved by 7 rating points since its Cox plate 2nd. If you believe the scale that 2 rating points = 1kg difference (which is how non WFA races seem to be assessed) then a big peak performance from Anamoe might be required. Of course, Racing isn’t a pure maths or weights and measures game….otherwise we’d all be rich ????
Ross Wright
Roar Rookie
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Chris Lewis
Roar Guru
I have always been amused by ratings. I simply go with the form, although hard to line up foreign horses. Did not stop me backing sir dragonet in wet cox plate.
Snowman
Roar Rookie
Very well written,would have say one best articles I’ve read on here about racing
Albo
Roar Rookie
You wouldn’t discount it . A Group 1 winner over the distance in France . Comes into the Cox Plate as the bottom weight with a handy trainer in Chris Waller & handy jockey in Damian Oliver. And looking at the weather forecast in Melbourne over the next couple of days , this track is going to get tested with a likely slow / heavy track for the Cup by Saturday arvo. Should suit El Bodegon and rule out half the rest of the field.
peeeko
Roar Guru
fascinating stuff, i had a look at this "padding" seems to occur every year. horses with ratings below 100 are given a sudden rise of 8-10 points and then it miraculous falls 10 points the next start. this seems to happen in the caulfield cup. last ear callsign mav and dalsan boosted 10 points then lost them by their next start in austumn
Omnitrader
Roar Rookie
Our sprinters are world class because we breed for them, the only world class middle distance horses we have had in the last 20 years is probably so you think and winx, we just don’t breed them, which is odd given 3 of our biggest races are over 2000m+
Omnitrader
Roar Rookie
Is this a sneaky tip for El Bodegon?
max power
Guest
wow, thanks for writing this. the complicit racing media would never discuss this.