The spring tour, the November internationals, the autumn nations series – whatever you want to call this next month of Test rugby, we’re back every Thursday and ready to kick off the discussions each weekend.
All our teams got through the Rugby Championship in varying degrees of health, and though some of those injuries have been overcome, new ones have also now presented. The chances of unchanged XVs from the last Rugby Championship game to the first game of the northern tours look beyond slim.
But nevertheless, these Tests represent opportunities for players and combinations, and especially with a very limited number of games between now and next year’s Rugby World Cup in France.
It’s great to be back for the next month, so let’s get straight into it.
Question 1: What’s the pass mark for your team through these northern Tests to round out 2022? How many wins are needed?
Nobes
Most of the Argentine players who played in the Rugby Championship did not have a break and went directly to play for their respective teams in Europe, where they played many minutes.
Michael Cheika is directing the Lebanese team in the Rugby League World Cup, and if that team continues to advance, there are chances that he will not be able to be in the first game of Los Pumas in this November window against England. But his presence is guaranteed in the next two games, where they will face Wales and Scotland.
Negotiations to release Argentine players from clubs for this window of matches are quite difficult in many cases since the other teams from European countries ask for players from their respective nations for their teams, thus creating a vacuum that is usually filled by foreign players.
As we have been reading, there are many injured players, which makes everything more difficult. A good result for Los Pumas is to be competitive and to be in the game in all three matches, and from now on victory against any of the three would be a great plus.
Brett
Well, Rugby Australia CEO Andy Marinos has already put it out there, hasn’t he.
“I haven’t had that specific conversation with Dave just yet but we want to come away with more wins than losses, I’d say,” he told the Sydney Morning Herald last week.
Three out of five was probably what everyone was feeling or thinking anyway, but the CEO putting it on the record sets a standard. The question now is: what happens if it’s not achieved? Especially since they’ve already backed the coach to go to the Rugby World Cup next year.
Regardless, the Wallabies – and Dave Rennie – would be wanting to win at least three anyway. Injuries are already plaguing assembling squads, and any chance to exploit impacted French and Irish teams should not be squandered.
To do it they’re going to need momentum and they’re going to need to start that from this weekend at Murrayfield. Beating the Scots is something that hasn’t been nearly as easy for Australia as it perhaps should have been in recent years, but they simply have to this weekend.
So beat Scotland first. Then go to Paris and be ready to take down France.
Because they may not be a better chance in the next 12 months.
(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
Digger
If the All Blacks have true ambitions to be the best in the world again, then they need to complete this tour unbeaten.
They are already sitting behind the top two sides from the north, Ireland and France, and to start a resurgence they should not be dropping any further games.
This tour is a great opportunity to show the All Blacks ship has been steadied and they are ready to chase down the top sides heading into the World Cup. Easier said than done of course.
England is never a simple task at Twickenham, and no doubt, with the inconsistent showings from this NZ vintage of late, the Scots and Welsh will be eyeing up a very real opportunity to create some history for themselves.
So it will be very tough, but with my bias I think an unbeaten tour is within reach of this squad and anything short of that will be considered a failure.
Geoff
Only the most optimistic fans – or those permanently lost in the outback who still think that John Eales, George Gregan and Stephen Larkham are playing – expect the Wallabies to beat Ireland and France away from home, which means that three wins and two losses is a realistic benchmark for this tour.
A loss to one of Scotland or Wales can probably be lived with as long as there are some positives in the performance. Losses to both would be more problematic. A loss to Italy and a 0-5 result, no matter the extenuating injury circumstances, doesn’t bear thinking about.
New Zealand is more straightforward.
Nothing less than wins over Japan, Wales and Italy are expected, which means their whole tour comes down to 19 November at Twickenham. Win that and the tour is a success, lose and it’s a failure.
(Photo by Greg Bowker/Getty Images)
Harry
Ireland won a series in New Zealand. They are the best team in the world.
They had a clearly better margin of tries scored and conceded than France in the Six Nations. Their short passing labyrinth game is either the wave of the future or the last stand of skill over size. They have the finest minds in the coaching box. Most of them come from one region. They should be impregnable at home.
But I’m going to the Springboks Test in Dublin. I’ll be the guy in green. So it would be unacceptable to me to lose at the Aviva and then do a doom-and-gloom instant reaction podcast with Crhsi Laidlaw bemoaning the Paris farce.
At the moment I am 50-50 for the Boks match in Paris which, again, should be won comfortably by the home team with the best pack, best nine, best coach and best kicker.
Thus a pass mark would be three wins, with the only loss to France.
A sweep would be very good. Three good. Two poor and failing. One execrable. Naught everyone gets sacked.
Question 2: Which players are you really wanting to see stand up and be counted during your team’s Test matches?
Nobes
The Pumas will meet in Manchester on 24, 25 and 26 October thinking about the November window, and 29 players were called.
Of the players who played the Rugby Championship, the forced absences due to injury of Guido Petti and Rodrigo Bruni are noted. Nor will Joel Sclavi be available since he was suspended for eight weeks.
Other notables who were not called up are Mayco Vivas, Gomez Kodela, Benjamín Urdapilleta and Nicolas Sanchez. As news will be the youthful Martín Bogado and the return of Rodrigo Martinez.
Personally, I would like to see on the court Tomas Albornoz, who has been having an excellent tournament with his team and who would be a good alternative to Santiago Carreras as fly half since it is his natural position.
And the player who should have more playing time is the explosive Mateo Carreras, who is scoring excellent tries in the Premiership. Pablo Matera is the most rested player since he has not seen playing time since the last game of the Championship.
(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
Brett
It kind of feels like this month of Test rugby is going to shine the spotlight on young No. 10s everywhere, and so throwing up Noah Lolesio and Ben Donaldson here feels logical.
But wanting them to make their mark is twofold.
Obviously I want them to do well because they’re excellent young players who deserve a shot and to have the proper support mechanisms around them. Lolesio really hasn’t been handled particularly well over the last 18 months and Donaldson has earned his chance through a string of performances. Being able to play fullback could prove very handy for him, I suspect.
But I want them both to take this chance and make themselves ‘undroppable’ because it might finally allow Australia rugby to put the veterans of campaigns past back behind the emergency glass. It’s a failing many years in the making if the plans for 2023 are made just by copying and pasting from the 2015 folder.
Back Lolesio and Donaldson now and over the next year and the Wallabies might just create for themselves a genuine plan for the future. Back them now – and properly – and they could steer the Wallabies around for two more World Cups after the next one.
It seems obvious. And yet…
Digger
Besides ‘all of them’, I am not looking for anyone new per se but rather a continuation of what has been achieved thus far, and I am talking specifically about the new(ish) starting front row.
Heading up north will be an exciting and possibly more difficult assignment for them, and I am really hoping they can continue on their promising form from the Championship. If they do, it should flow through the rest of the side and results will come.
In terms of other individuals, I am keen to see more of the same from Shannon Frizell at blindside, and I hope Anton Lienert-Brown can hit the ground running and add further depth and solidity to the All Blacks midfield, especially if Jordie Barrett will need to move back to fullback with Will Jordan’s absence.
Geoff
I could name a dozen Wallabies but will try to narrow it down.
Big Will Skelton is available for three matches and it’s time for him to put his critics to bed by putting in three convincing performances at Test level. In short, he needs to transition from someone brought in from outside the team to plug a gap into an integral, vital cog in the pack.
Darcy Swain has been gifted an opportunity thanks to a lenient judiciary and Matt Philip’s knee. He’d be well advised to take advantage of it.
The other interesting one for me is Pete Samu. Concerns raised by Nick Bishop duly noted, Samu was an influential figure during the Rugby Championship. Regardless of what role Michael Hooper plays across the five weeks, Samu needs to demonstrate that his recent form is a new floor and that he is another player who isn’t just there to make up the numbers but can influence outcomes in Test rugby.
For the All Blacks, it’s time for Finlay Christie to make the transition from promising bit-player to fully fledged international. He’s not where he needs to be just yet.
While they’ve made a promising start, I’ll also be looking for the new centre combination of Jordie Barrett and Rieko Ioane to kick on. They have a wonderful opportunity to lock themselves in as the centre combo everyone has been waiting patiently for.
Harry
The great Bok No. 10 shuffle continues with handsome Handre Pollard’s meniscus floppier than a Tory PM’s confidence vote, and Elton Jantjies doing a tiger goes to Bangkok with a side Hollywood hustle.
Damian Willemse has been viewed as a fullback and made the incumbent for 2022 and the World Cup. But at club level he’s played plenty at No. 12 and quite a bit at flyhalf. Now he’s the driver at No. 10 for the autumn tour.
I’m looking forward to seeing the 24-year-old Gazza kick tactically in Dublin, Paris, and London but revving the engine of Springbok speed when it is on.
Backing him up, with 30-year-old Johan Goosen suffering the same sort of long-term head concerns as Courtney Lawes, could be the Stormers’ Manie Libbok (metronomic) and 20-year-old phenom Sacha Mngomezulu, baby Bok captain. All three of these young guns are worth the price of the ticket when they get any space at all.
Finally, the long saga of Cape firebrand Evan Roos, who seems cut from the same scratchy cloth as Rassie Erasmus himself, finally promises the hint of Bok start in a match that matters.
He is a discipline project on and off the pitch, but it seems to originate with an off-the-chart competitive spirit. With Jasper Wiese the most overplayed forward on earth, Duane Vermeulen not able to play too many games consecutively and Elrigh Louw out for four to six weeks with an ankle injury, it is time for Roos to boogie.
Over to you: What’s the pass mark for your team this spring? And which player do you need to see plenty from?
moaman
Roar Guru
Of course that is the reason. :laughing:
Nobrain
Roar Guru
Ha!!! Medrano has just signed again with Western Force!!!!!!
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Thanks Brett. From my perspective as an AB supporter, it’s easy. Anything less than an unbeaten tour would be deemed a failure. To be fair that mirrors the views of Digger and Geoff and I would imagine the vast majority of Kiwis.” The player who I’d like to see step up is a guy I have been spruiking for a couple of years, Dalton Papali’i.
Nobrain
Roar Guru
Getting more Argentinian players in Europe helps if the can play for Los Pumas with the proper rest like many other unions have agreed with the local clubs and not overplaying the Arg players. Having a healthier Pumas will make them more competitive and cashers will be bigger . Los Pumas will get to RWC with much more minutes in the field than the rest and that is a handicap , besides they the ones that make more air miles and cross more time zones than the rest. To tell you the true when players like Kremer gets a ban for three weeks al feel happy for him because he will come with much more strength. I look to other sports of contact such as NFL, or MLH , and they have shorter seasons but the quality of the games are much better and the balances are on black. There too many games. The French season is so long and I looked to the injury report of Toulon the other day and they have 13 players out . If you go to a show and the best performers are not there it is not the same. IMO less is more. I do not think that rugby is like soccer where there is a game every day on tv. I think you have to build expectations and with so many games only the two or three top nations get it.
JaguardoDixit
Roar Rookie
I understand that Jaguares was self-financing. It did not generate additional income but it did not consume it either. The UAR’s biggest income comes from Los Pumas, so almost three years of not playing in Argentina, due to Covid-19, put a lot of pressure on the union.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
I think getting as many Argentine players into the URC helps a bit as no games played when the 6 nations is on (they are on the rest weeks) which gives players 5 weeks off of matches. I know SA look to give their players off over the new year (though EPCR cups will make this harder). I feel like the RC will move to the 6N window more than the 6Ns will move to the RC as SA and Argentina would rather get access to their players throughout the year rather than one big block especially as the RC is the big problem. The elephant in the room is should WR mandate that all internationals must have limited playing time after the window, but the problem is who pays for those players to sit out, the clubs wont. The T14 may drop to 12 teams but realistically with 16 teams in Pro D2 none of them will vote for it. 6Ns Unions and LNR (T14 and Pro D2) are making more and more money. Prem and the rest of the world are not. Do you know if not having the Jags has made the Union better or worse off financially, I know complex so the Union might not have said.
Harry Jones
Expert
Exactly. It's a pro move. The hybrid old boy half-amateur approach by England led to a lot of special dispensations and wink-wink nod and no hard choices. The Sarries saga could have been nipped in the bud, but was allowed to become a Little Shop of Horrors. An arms race, as in Top14, leads to the dock, as we see. MLR is keeping things simple and clear. URC is mid-market. The top of the market is a bit wild at the moment.
Mo
Guest
Medrano is young but this force supporter feels he lacks proper test quality
Nobrain
Roar Guru
Brendan, I respect your view, however looking at the number of players injured all over the place for some people this is an opportunity for other players to stand up. For me all these means less quality games and less interest in rugby. If you look around only France may have a somehow financial healthy pro rugby ( and I am not so sure about it) , and the rest of the unions are struggling . You need the best players to create a great show as you need in any other sports and if they are fit , healthy and rested I am pretty sure you will not get that. Sure we will have the next WR that will make sometime , but clubs and unions will have to come to terms and give up and come up with a better product than the one we have today . May be less is more, creates more expectations that may draw more crowds, viewers and fans.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
On the point of NH clubs wanting the Argentine players it is all down to agreements in relation the RC. If a player is not going to be playing on a weekend during the international window the club (who for the argentines are paying the majority of their wages) are entitled to pick them. As the RC has two rest weeks built in the clubs in times past have made them fly back to Europe and play like they do the 6N players in their off weeks. It didn't suit anyone so the Unions and Clubs came to an agreement that they would make deals on players who stayed for the RC and then weren't called up as much for the AIs. As most club competitions are still playing this weekend a team like Edinburgh who will need to give their whole Scot qualified first team to the national side need their Argentine players to play Ospreys, why should they give them up. Add in that last year the URC had a rest week before the AIs but don't know because of the WC and having to finish the season earlier means less time. Just shows why losing the Jags was big in terms of control over players, but having them all getting more playing time that the Jags could give for back up players is a bigger plus for me.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Because of Covid, I think that for Oz and NZ if this tour is bad, it could be a big mental block come world cup. Normally there are 3 July tours and 3 EOYTs so if you have a bad one or two you still have 4 good ones. The problem this cycle is that Nz will only have 3 and the other 3 will only have 4. SA beat the Lions, Wales and last EOYT won 2/3 with a narrow loss to England. If they lose badly to Ire or Fra then they may worry but they still have 3 good tours to fall back on. NZ have had 0 successful windows from their two so this is their last chance to show they are ok. Oz did beat France in 2021 July series but that seems long forgotten, if they lose to Scotland and France that Italy game becomes a real pressure game as they would have lost their last 5 games in Europe. Argentina generally do well at home and poor in the EOYT unless its the WC so don't think they are too bothered. With the WC being in the NH last thing NZ or Oz want to take with them is the memory of two failed tours (not sure either have done that in a long time). SA and Arg players will get to play Champions Cup so will have more time if things go wrong. But for Oz and NZ once this tour is done they wont see an NH player until the WC and without the SA sides in SR, wont be able to work on physicality or attacking an structured defense on the level that SA provide. With SA in a group with two URC nations they are sorted, Argentina just must beat Japan but how do the other two tackle their issues in isolation.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
MLR right to rip the band aid off rather than not get it treated. Would have been a whole mess in a few years. Lays down a marker for other owners
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
You forgot 6 Nations signing record Tv deals as has T14 and URC. Biggest women's world cup breaking records all over the shop. More women becoming professional players. Most compeditive RC in years. It is rosey, but sometimes you have to prune the dead to bloom.
Harry Jones
Expert
MLR did the right thing. And are adding Chicago. Rightsizing budgets. Enforcing caps. URC had a monster 2022; and on track again. Commonality: real caps, scaling
JaguardoDixit
Roar Rookie
Very true about García Botta. When I was going through the props available in Europe it came to my mind. However, I suspect he must have been "stuck" at the step backwards of the Argentine scrum during the Hourcade (Pumas) / Aspirina Pérez (Jaguares) era. Complicated locker rooms must have been experienced in those years (Port Elizabeth -Kings- and Resistencia -Scotland-) and some players seem to have disappeared from the Puma radar since then.
mzilikazi
Roar Pro
Thanks Chook !
AJ
Guest
You have the answer to a lot of the globe's problems right there moaman. Too many people.
Nobrain
Roar Guru
Argentina does not have to beat anyone this window, it will be nice if they do, but does not have to. They just need to be competitive and set their eyes towards the WC finding the correct halfs and try different props, the rest of the team imo is well covered.
Nobrain
Roar Guru
Marcos Kremer was suspended for three weeks , well the guy needed a rest anyway.
Nobrain
Roar Guru
They may not agree in global season but economics will drive them to agree on one sometime near the road.